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Keywords:Financial stability 

Speech
Testimony on housing finance reform: essential elements of a government guarantee for mortgage-backed securities

Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Washington, D.C.
Speech , Paper 122

Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t+1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t-2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: Net debt ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-28

Report
Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination

This paper analyzes how the formation of expectations constrains monetary and fiscal policy design. Economic agents have imperfect knowledge about the economic environment and the policy regime in place. Households and firms learn about the policy regime using historical data. Regime uncertainty substantially narrows, relative to a rational expectations analysis of the model, the menu of policies consistent with expectations stabilization. When agents are learning about the policy regime, there is greater need for policy coordination: the specific choice of monetary policy limits the set of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 343

Working Paper
Owe a Bank Millions, the Bank Has a Problem: Credit Concentration in Bad Times

How does a bank react when a substantial share of its borrowers suffer a large negative shock? To answer this question we exploit the 2014 collapse of energy prices using the universe of Mexican commercial bank loans. We show that, after the drop in energy prices, banks exposed to the energy sector increased their exposure to these borrowers even more, relaxing credit margins to their larger debtors in the sector. An increase of one standard deviation in a bank's ex-ante exposure to the energy sector increased the loan volume to borrowers in the sector by 18 percent and reduced interest rates ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1288

Journal Article
President’s message: Big banks needs “living wills”

Econ Focus , Volume 17 , Issue 1Q , Pages 1

Speech
\"Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism,\" Finance and Economics Discussion Series Working Paper: a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, September 1, 2007

The housing market is of central concern to monetary policy makers. To achieve the dual goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment, monetary policy makers must understand the role that housing plays in the monetary transmission mechanism if they are to set policy instruments appropriately. In this paper, I examine what we know about the role of housing in the monetary transmission mechanism and then explore the implications of this knowledge for the conduct of monetary policy. I begin with a theoretical and empirical review of the main housing-related channels of the ...
Speech , Paper 312

Discussion Paper
On systemically important financial institutions and progressive systemic mitigation

One of the most important issues in the regulatory reform debate is that of systemically important financial institutions. This paper proposes a framework for identifying and supervising such institutions; the framework is designed to remove the advantages they derive from becoming systemically important and to give them more time-consistent incentives. It defines criteria for classifying firms as systemically important: size (the classic doctrine of too big to let fail) and the four Cs of systemic importance (contagion, concentration, correlation, and conditions); it also discusses the ...
Policy Discussion Papers , Issue Aug

Speech
Regulatory reform of the global financial system

Remarks hosted by the Institute of Regulation & Risk North Asia, Tokyo, Japan.
Speech , Paper 51

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