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Keywords:Financial markets 

Journal Article
Monetary policy and financial market expectations: what did they know and when did they know it?

Interest rates sometimes seem to respond to Federal Reserve policy actions in unexpected ways--for example, falling when the Fed " tightens" monetary policy or rising when the Fed "eases" policy. In this article, Michael R. Pakko and David C. Wheelock attempt to demystify such responses. They show how trading in the federal funds futures market reveals public expectations of Federal Reserve actions, and how our knowledge of these expectations can help us interpret the behavior of interest rates.
Review , Volume 78 , Issue Jul , Pages 19-32

Working Paper
Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: private and public sources

Caught between the end of the National Banking Era and the beginning of the Federal Reserve System, the crisis of 1914 provides an example of a banking panic avoided. We investigate how this outcome was achieved by examining data on the issues of Aldrich-Vreeland emergency currency and clearing house loan certificates to New York City institutions that identify borrower and quantity requested for each type of temporary liquidity measure. Combined with balance sheet data, we illustrate how temporary liquidity borrowing was essential for maintaining transactions volumes among New York City ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1304

Working Paper
Asset pooling, credit rationing, and growth

I study the effect of improved financial intermediation on the process of capital accumulation by augmenting a standard model with a general contract space. With the extra contracts, intermediaries endogenously begin using ROSCAs, or Rotating Savings and Credit Associations. These contracts allow poor agents, previously credit rationed, access to credit. As a result, agents work harder and total economy-wide output increases; however, these gains come at the cost of increased inequality. I provide sufficient conditions for the allocations to be Pareto optimal, and for there to be a unique ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1998-52

Journal Article
Options offer clue to market expectations

Economics Update , Issue Jul , Pages 5

Conference Paper
Heterogeneous beliefs, trading risk, and the equity premium


Journal Article
Three funerals and a wedding

This article is a modified and updated version of a speech presented at the Regional Economic Summit, Evansville, Indiana, November 20, 2008.
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Jan , Pages 1-12

Liquidity and leverage

In a financial system in which balance sheets are continuously marked to market, asset price changes appear immediately as changes in net worth, prompting financial intermediaries to adjust the size of their balance sheets. We present evidence that marked-to-market leverage is strongly procyclical and argue that such behavior has aggregate consequences. Changes in dealer repurchase agreements (repos) -the primary margin of adjustment for the aggregate balance sheets of intermediaries - forecast changes in financial market risk as measured by the innovations in the Chicago Board Options ...
Staff Reports , Paper 328

Journal Article
Structural changes in the financial markets: economic and policy significance

In a speech delivered this spring to the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and to the CS First Boston Corporation Global Banking Conference in New York City, Henry Kaufman predicted that the latest swings in bond and stock prices are likely to be merely a prologue to much greater volatility in the years ahead. This potential for financial trauma is a by-product of radical changes in the structure of financial institutions and markets that over time are leaving the system without an adequate institutional buffer and, therefore, more susceptible to sharp oscillations ...
Economic Review , Volume 79 , Issue Q II , Pages 5-15

Journal Article
Using market data in the supervisory process: a symposium introduction

The Region , Issue Sep , Pages 4

Journal Article
Financial market efficiency and the effectiveness of monetary policy

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission
Economic Policy Review , Volume 8 , Issue May , Pages 85-94



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