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Working Paper
FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Great Recession
Sherlund, Shane M.; Passmore, Wayne (2016-04-12)
Did government mortgage programs mitigate the adverse economic effects of the financial crisis? We find that counties with greater participation in traditional government mortgage programs experienced less severe economic downturns during the Great Recession. In particular, counties with higher levels of participation in FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac lending had relatively smaller increases in mortgage delinquency rates; smaller declines in purchase originations, home sales, home prices, and new automobile purchases; and smaller increases in unemployment rates. These results hold both in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-031

Working Paper
Consumer risk appetite, the credit cycle, and the housing bubble
Breeden, Joseph L.; Canals-Cerda, Jose J. (2016-02-18)
We explore the role of consumer risk appetite in the initiation of credit cycles and as an early trigger of the U.S. mortgage crisis. We analyze a panel data set of mortgages originated between the years 2000 and 2009 and follow their performance up to 2014. After controlling for all the usual observable effects, we show that a strong residual vintage effect remains. This vintage effect correlates well with consumer mortgage demand, as measured by the Federal Reserve Board?s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, and correlates well to changes in mortgage pricing at the time the loan was ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-5

Speech
Bullard Discusses Economy and Fed’s Response to COVID-19 in Central Banking Journal Interview
Jeffery, Christopher; Bullard, James B. (2020-08-11)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard shared his views on various aspects of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic in an interview with Central Banking Journal.
Speech

Working Paper
Too-Big-to-Fail before the Fed
Gorton, Gary; Tallman, Ellis W. (2016-05-06)
?Too-big-to-fail? is consistent with policies followed by private bank clearing houses during financial crises in the U.S. National Banking Era prior to the existence of the Federal Reserve System. Private bank clearing houses provided emergency lending to member banks during financial crises. This behavior strongly suggests that ?too-big-to-fail? is not the problem causing modern crises. Rather, it is a reasonable response to the threat posed to large banks by the vulnerability of short-term debt to runs.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1612

Working Paper
Demand Shock, Liquidity Management, and Firm Growth during the Financial Crisis
Yook, Youngsuk; Tham, Mandy; Maksimovic, Vojislav (2015-10-30)
We examine the transmission of liquidity across the supply chain during the 2007-09 financial crisis, a period of financial market illiquidity, for a sample of unrated public firms with differential demand shocks. We measure differential demand by comparing firms that primarily supply to government customers with those that primarily supply to corporate customers. A difference-in-difference analysis shows little evidence that relatively high demand firms provide more or less liquidity to their own suppliers. The main determinant of the usage of short-term financing is a product market shock. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-96

Working Paper
Modeling Money Market Spreads: What Do We Learn about Refinancing Risk?
Brousseau, Vincent; Nikolaou, Kleopatra; Pill, Huw (2014-11-19)
We quantify the effect of refinancing risk on euro area money market spreads, a major factor driving spreads during the financing crisis. With the advent of the crisis, market participants' perception of their ability to refinance over a given period of time changed radically. As a result, borrowers preferred to obtain funding for longer tenors and lenders were willing to provide funding for shorter tenors. This discrepancy resulted in a need to refinance more frequently in order to borrow over a given horizon, thus increasing refinancing risk. We measure refinancing risk by quantifying the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-112

Working Paper
The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters
Siemer, Michael; Lincoln, William F.; McCallum, Andrew H. (2017-11-03)
The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau. We find that incumbent exporters account for the vast majority of the decline in export volumes during the crisis. The recession also induced a missing generation of exporters, with large increases in exits and a substantial decline in entries into foreign markets. New exporters during these years tended to have ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-108

Speech
The International Financial Crisis: Asset Price Exuberance and Macroprudential Regulation
Evans, Charles L. (2009-09-24)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 2009 International Banking Conference Chicago, IL
Speech , Paper 34

Working Paper
Did saving Wall Street really save Main Street : the real effects of TARP on local economic conditions
Roman, Raluca; Berger, Allen N. (2015-10-01)
We investigate whether saving Wall Street through the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) really saved Main Street during the recent financial crisis. Our difference-in-difference analysis suggests that TARP statistically and economically significantly increased net job creation and net hiring establishments and decreased business and personal bankruptcies. The results are robust, including accounting for endogeneity. The main mechanisms driving the results appear to be increases in commercial real estate lending and off-balance sheet real estate guarantees. These results suggest that ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-13

Working Paper
Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures During Historical Bank Runs
Kurz, Christopher J.; Ghysels, Eric; Brownlees, Christian; Chabot, Benjamin (2015-07-02)
The measurement of systemic risk is at the forefront of economists and policymakers concerns in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. What exactly are we measuring and do any of the proposed measures perform well outside the context of the recent financial crisis? One way to address these questions is to take backtesting seriously and evaluate how useful the recently proposed measures are when applied to historical crises. Ideally, one would like to look at the pre-FDIC era for a broad enough sample of financial panics to confidently assess the robustness of systemic risk measures but ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2015-9

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