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Working Paper
Trade credit and international trade during the 2008-09 global financial crisis
This paper studies the role of the credit crunch in the severe contraction of trade and economic activity at the height of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, using firm-level data from six emerging market economies in Asia. We construct firm-specific measures of global demand, which allow us to disentangle the effect of falling demand from that of financial constraints on sales. The results indicate that: (1) Although the fall in demand adversely affected the sales of all firms during the crisis, sales declined by less for firms with better pre-crisis financial conditions. (2) In the face ...
Journal Article
Could we have learned from the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98?
Economists drew a number of lessons from the Asian financial crisis of 1997?98 for preventing such episodes or mitigating their effects. Some of those are similar to lessons drawn from the global financial crisis of 2007?09. But differences in economic development and sophistication of the financial systems of East Asian countries compared with those of the United States and Western Europe made it difficult to apply the lessons of the earlier crisis.
Journal Article
Understanding the Asian crisis: systemic risk as coordination failure
Systemic crises, such as the recent Asian crisis, may be due to an inability of individual to optimally coordinate their investment strategies.
Working Paper
Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin
This paper estimates a linearized, stochastic version of Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) credit cycle model, using land price data from Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. It is shown that the welfare costs of borrowing constraints are positively related to the persistence of (de-trended) land price fluctuations. When the residual demand curve for land is inelastic and the steady state share of land held by the constrained sector is less than 30 percent, welfare costs are less than 1 percent of GDP in all countries. However, the costs of borrowing constraints rise quickly as the constrained sector ...
Journal Article
Foreign exchange reserves in East Asia: why the high demand?
Journal Article
Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin
This paper estimates a linearized, stochastic version of Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) credit cycle model, using land price data from Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. It is shown that the welfare costs of borrowing constraints are positively related to the persistence of (detrended) land price fluctuations. When the residual demand curve for land is inelastic and the steady state share of land held by the constrained sector is less than 30 percent, welfare costs are less than 1 percent GDP in all countries. However, the strained sector becomes more important and as the elasticity of ...
Journal Article
Statement to Congress, September 23, 1998, (financial crises ).
Journal Article
Corporate response to distress: evidence from the Asian financial crisis
This paper provides a comprehensive examination of corporate responses to financial distress during an economy-wide crisis, specifically through the restructuring of assets (through asset sales, mergers, or liquidations) and/or liabilities. Using firm-level data from five countries hardest hit by the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, this study contrasts the effects of financial and corporate governance variables on restructuring choices. The study finds that, during a crisis, financial constraints and corporate governance each have a large effect on the restructuring choice.
Speech
The international connection: the Asian crisis and U.S. economic activity
Presentation to the Noonday Club Meeting, St. Louis - Dec. 2, 1999