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Journal Article
More money: understanding recent changes in the monetary base
Gavin, William T. (2009-03)
The financial crisis that began in the summer of 2007 took a turn for the worse in September 2008. Until then, Federal Reserve actions taken to improve the functioning financial markets did not affect the monetary base. The unusual lending and purchase of private debt was offset by the sale of Treasury securities so that the total size of the balance sheet of the Fed remained relatively unchanged. In September, however, the Fed stopped selling securities as it made massive purchases of private debt and issued hundreds of billions of dollars in short-term loans. The result was a doubling of ...
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Mar , Pages 49-60

Working Paper
Durable financial regulation: monitoring financial instruments as a counterpart to regulating financial institutions
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2010)
Superseded by Working Paper 13-2 ; This paper sets forth a discussion framework for the information requirements of systemic financial regulation. It specifically proposes a large macro-micro database for the U.S. based on an extended version of the Flow of Funds. The author argues that such a database would have been of material value to U.S. regulators in ameliorating the recent financial crisis and will be of aid in understanding the potential vulnerabilities of an innovative financial system in the future. The author also argues that the data should -- under strict confidentiality ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-22

Journal Article
Banking and currency crisis and systemic risk: lessons from recent events
Kaufman, George G. (2000-07)
Banking and currency crises have done severe economic damage in many countries in recent years. This article examines the causes and characteristics of these crises and the public policies intended to prevent them or mitigate their adverse consequences.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 25 , Issue Q III , Pages 9-28

Report
Expectations and contagion in self-fulfilling currency attacks
Keister, Todd (2006)
This paper presents a model in which currency crises can spread across countries as a result of the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants. An incomplete-information approach is used to overcome many undesirable features of existing multiple-equilibrium explanations of contagion. If speculators expect contagion across markets to occur, they have an incentive to trade in both currency markets to take advantage of this correlation. These actions, in turn, link the two markets in such a way that a sharp devaluation of one currency will be propagated to the other market, fulfilling the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 249

Journal Article
Household financial stability: who suffered the most from the crisis?
Emmons, William R.; Noeth, Bryan J. (2012-07)
The financial crisis and ensuing recession took a toll on just about everybody?s household wealth. Not surprisingly, the pain wasn?t evenly distributed. Those groups that are usually the most vulnerable in our society?young and middle-aged minority households?suffered the most, percentage-wise.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jul

Journal Article
Interview with Kenneth Rogoff
Clement, Douglas (2008-12)
Interview with Harvard economist about financial globalization, risks to central bank independence and the history of financial crises.
The Region , Volume 22 , Issue Dec , Pages 18-29

Working Paper
On the welfare gains of reducing the likelihood of economic crises
Corbae, Dean; Chatterjee, Satyajit (2000)
The authors seek to measure the potential benefit of reducing the likelihood of economic crises (defined as Depression-style collapses of economic activity). Based on the observed frequency of Depression-like events, they estimate this likelihood to be approximately one in every 83 years for the U.S. The welfare gain of reducing even this small probability of crisis to zero can range between 1.05 percent and 6.59 percent of annual consumption in perpetuity. These large gains occur because although the probability of entering a Depression-like state is small, once the state is entered it is ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0015

Working Paper
Tax Revolts and Sovereign Defaults
Arce, Fernando; Werquin, Nicolas; Morgan, Jan (2024-02)
Protests and fiscal crises often coincide, with complex causal dynamics at play. We examine the interaction between tax revolts and sovereign risk using a quantitative structural model calibrated to Argentina during the Macri administration (2015-2019). In the model, the government can be controlled by political parties with different preferences for redistribution. Households may opt to revolt in response to the fiscal policies of the ruler. While revolts entail economic costs, they also increase the likelihood of political turnover. Our model mirrors the data by generating political crises ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2024-07

Working Paper
Speculative bubbles and financial crisis
Wen, Yi; Wang, Pengfei (2009)
Why are asset prices so much more volatile and so often detached from their fundamentals? Why does the burst of financial bubbles depress the real economy? This paper addresses these questions by constructing an infinite-horizon heterogeneous-agent general-equilibrium model with speculative bubbles. We show that agents are willing to invest in asset bubbles even though they have positive probability to burst. We prove that any storable goods, regardless of their intrinsic values, may give birth to bubbles with market prices far exceeding their fundamental values. We also show that perceived ...
Working Papers , Paper 2009-029

Speech
Financial reform or financial dementia?
Fisher, Richard W. (2010)
Remarks at the SW Graduate School of Banking 53rd Annual Keynote Address and Banquet, Dallas, Texas, June 3, 2010 ; "Let me make my sentiments clear: It is my view that, by propping up deeply troubled big banks, authorities have eroded market discipline in the financial system."
Speeches and Essays , Paper 61

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