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Working Paper
Monetary policy, secrecy, and federal funds rate behavior
The behavior of the Federal Reserve System can be characterized as secretive with respect to its control of monetary aggregates. One common justification for this secrecy is that markets will overreact to information, causing undue variability in interest rates. However, the consequences of keeping policy objectives hidden has received little formal attention. This paper takes an initial step by examining the variability of the federal funds rate and total reserves under nonborrowed reserve targeting. The major result is that the disclosure of operating procedures will generally increase the ...
Discussion Paper
Who’s Borrowing in the Fed Funds Market?
The federal funds market plays an important role in the implementation of monetary policy. In our previous post, we examine the lending side of the fed funds market and the decline in total fed funds volume since the onset of the financial crisis. In today’s post, we discuss the borrowing side of this market and the interesting role played by foreign banks.
Speech
The national and regional economy
Remarks at the Whitman School of Management at Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York.
Journal Article
Another triangle talent : Raleigh region rakes in federal money
Speech
Remarks on the role of central bank interactions with financial markets
Remarks at New York University's Stern School of Business, New York City.
Journal Article
Inflation Expectations Limit the Power of Negative Interest Rates
Both the federal funds rate and longer-run yields have dropped to near zero, renewing discussion of negative interest rate policy. Although negative rates would allow for additional cuts in the United States, negative policy rates in line with what other countries have implemented would not be able to achieve the nominal rate reduction of previous easing cycles. Moreover, inflation expectations remained flat or fell after negative rates were introduced in most countries, limiting the expansionary power of these additional rate cuts.
Journal Article
Large-dollar payment flows from New York
Working Paper
Do federal funds futures need adjustment for excess returns? a state-dependent approach
This paper utilizes a Markov-switching framework to model excess returns in federal funds futures contracts. This framework identifies a high-volatility state where excess returns are large, positive, and volatile and a low-volatility state where excess returns have a lower volatility and are small in absolute value. Federal funds futures rates require adjustment for excess returns only in the high-volatility state. Intermeeting rate cuts of the federal funds rate target always correspond with the high-volatility regime and can explain much of the variation in excess returns. This paper also ...
Working Paper
Overnight interbank loan markets
This paper investigates transactions and interest rates on brokered and direct trades in federal funds, Eurodollar transactions, and repurchase agreements, all of which are used by banks in overnight funding. We expand on earlier work on calendar-day effects in these markets, investigating also volumes of funding in recent years. Our data include daily trades in federal funds reported by major brokers and also records of uncollateralized transactions over the wire transfer system operated by the Federal Reserve. We find that the share of the overnight interbank loan market represented by ...
Journal Article
Banks, bonds, and the liquidity effect
An "easing" of monetary policy can be characterized by an expansion of bank reserves and a persistent decline in the federal funds rate that, with a considerable lag, induces a pickup in employment, output, and prices. This article presents empirical evidence consistent with this depiction of the dynamic response of the economy to monetary policy actions and develops a theoretical model that exhibits similar dynamic properties. The decline in the federal funds rate is referred to as the "liquidity effect" of an expansionary monetary policy. A key feature of this class of theoretical ...