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Journal Article
The Global Pandemic and Run on Shadow Banks
Sengupta, Rajdeep; Xue, Fei (2020-05-11)
In March, the global coronavirus pandemic led to a period of financial stress in which credit conditions tightened at an unprecedented pace. Elements of this stress period can be explained as a classic run on “shadow banks”—nonbank financial institutions that fund long-term assets with short-term debt. Although timely Federal Reserve interventions restored some calm to markets, shadow banks remain vulnerable to future runs because they lack the safeguards available to regulated depository institutions.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 11, 2020 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation
Lubik, Thomas A.; Matthes, Christian (2014-01-31)
We argue in this paper that the Great Inflation of the 1970s can be understood as the result of equilibrium indeterminacy in which loose monetary policy engendered excess volatility in macroeconomic aggregates and prices. We show, however, that the Federal Reserve inadvertently pursued policies that were not anti-inflationary enough because it did not fully understand the economic environment it was operating in. Specifically, it had imperfect knowledge about the structure of the U.S. economy and it was subject to data misperceptions. The real-time data flow at that time did not capture the ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-2

Discussion Paper
Expanding the Toolkit: Facilities Established to Respond to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Kovner, Anna; Martin, Antoine (2020-09-22)
The Federal Reserve’s response to the coronavirus pandemic has been unprecedented in its size and scope. In a matter of months, the Fed has, among other things, cut the federal funds rate to the zero lower bound, purchased a large amount of Treasury securities and agency mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) and, together with the U.S. Treasury, introduced several lending facilities. Some of these facilities are very similar to ones introduced during the 2007-09 financial crisis while others are completely new. In this post, we argue that the new facilities, while unprecedented, are a natural ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200922

Working Paper
Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection: Implications for Discount Window Stigma
Ennis, Huberto M. (2017-01-09)
I study the implications for central bank discount window stigma of the model by Philippon and Skreta (2012). I take an equilibrium perspective for a given discount window program instead of following the program-design approach of the original paper. This allows me to narrow the focus on the model's positive predictions. In the model, firms (banks) need to borrow to finance a productive project. There is limited liability and firms have private information about their ability to repay their debts. This creates an adverse selection problem. The central bank can ameliorate the impact of ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-1

Discussion Paper
Central Banks, Global Shocks, and Local Crises: Lessons from the Atlanta Fed's Response to the 1920–21 Recession
White, Eugene; Roberds, William (2020-12-18)
During late 1920, the president (then called "governor") and board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta were confronted with an unexpected, devastating collapse in the price of a commodity whose global production was concentrated in their district—cotton. Their judgment was that the fall in cotton prices was temporary and that its effects could be lessened with generous credit policies that did not conflict with the Federal Reserve Act. Other officials within the Federal Reserve System did not agree with this judgment, however, leading to a contentious policy debate and an ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-15

Speech
A Solution to Every Puzzle
Williams, John C. (2020-09-29)
Remarks at the 2020 U.S. Treasury Market Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Discussion Paper
Measuring Settlement Fails
Keane, Frank M.; Martin, Antoine; McMorrow, Michael; Fleming, Michael J. (2014-09-19)
In June 2014, settlement fails of U.S. Treasury securities reached their highest level since the implementation of the Treasury fails charge in May 2009, attracting significant attention from market participants. In this post, we review what fails are, why they are of interest, and how they can be measured. In a companion post following this one, we evaluate the particular circumstances of the June 2014 fails.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140919b

Discussion Paper
Crisis Chronicles: Railway Mania, the Hungry Forties, and the Commercial Crisis of 1847
Narron, James; Morgan, Donald P. (2015-06-05)
Money was plentiful in the United Kingdom in 1842, and with low yields on government bonds and railway shares paying handsome dividends, the desire to speculate spread?as one observer put it, ?the contagion passed to all, and from the clerk to the capitalist the fever reigned uncontrollable and uncontrolled? (Francis?s History of the Bank of England). And so began railway mania. Just as that bubble began to burst, a massive harvest failure in England and Ireland led to surging food imports, which drained gold reserves from the Bank of England. Constrained by the Bank Charter Act, the Bank ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150605

Working Paper
FOMC communication and interest rate sensitivity to news
Tang, Jenny (2017-10-01)
In this paper, I examine whether communications by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) play a role in determining the types of macroeconomic news that financial markets pay attention to. To do so, I construct novel measures of the intensity with which FOMC statements and meeting minutes discussed labor relative to other topics. I find that these labor topic intensity measures are related to the amount by which interest rates? response to labor-related news exceeds their response to all other news. This relationship is especially strong for interest rates of longer maturities and is also ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-12

Working Paper
The Fed's Discount Window in "Normal" Times
Ennis, Huberto M.; Klee, Elizabeth C. (2021-03-19)
We study new transaction-level data of discount window borrowing in the U.S. between 2010 and 2017, merged with quarterly data on bank financial con- ditions (balance sheet and revenue). The objective is to improve our under- standing of the reasons for why banks use the discount window during periods outside financial crises. We also provide a model of the decision of banks to borrow at the window, which is helpful for interpreting the data. We find that decisions to gain access and to borrow at the discount window are meaning- fully correlated with some relevant banks' characteristics and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-016

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