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Working Paper
Trade prices and volumes in East Asia through the crisis

This paper presents a break-down of the export and import performance of select East Asian countries into price and volume effects. The results show that in aggregate, the decline in export revenue experienced by these countries in 1998 was largely due to a 9.1 percent fall in prices, and that export volume actually rose. Similarly, while the import volume of these countries did fall in 1998, the decline was not as great as in the dollar value of those imports, but reflected a greater slide in import prices of 10.8 percent. The fall in import and export prices in the East Asian region began ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 643

Conference Paper
Financing world trade

Proceedings – Rural and Agricultural Conferences

Conference Paper
Agricultural trade in the 21st century: the role of the MTN today

Proceedings – Rural and Agricultural Conferences

Working Paper
Ethnic networks and U.S. exports

This paper provides new estimates of the effects of ethnic networks on U.S. exports. In line with recent research, our dataset is a panel of exports from U.S. states to 29 foreign countries. Our analysis departs from the literature in two ways, both of which show that previous estimates of the ethnic-network elasticity of trade are sensitive to the restrictions imposed on the estimated models. Our first departure is to control for unobserved heterogeneity with properly specified fixed effects, which we can do because our dataset contains a time dimension absent from previous studies. Our ...
Working Papers , Paper 2005-069

Working Paper
Income and price elasticities of foreign trade flows: econometric estimation and analysis of the U.S. trade deficit

This paper builds, estimates. and simulates a world trade model to provide a quantitative analysis of the behavior of the U.S. trade deficit. A key feature of this model is that international trade imbalances add up to zero. The analysis estimates income and price elasticities for bilateral import equations, tests for the properties of the error term, for parameter constancy, and for the choice of dynamic specification. The paper also reexamines the structural asymmetries in elasticities noted by Houthakker and Magee and tests whether the Marshall-Lerner condition holds. The reliability of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 324

Conference Paper
The export-occupation interface: the Chicago experience

The effect of exports on occupational demand is estimated. The notions of absorption and dissipating industries are introduced. Absorption industries form economic clusters that provide a mechanism to help explain the nature of regional changes as a result of the changes in exports
Assessing the Midwest Economy , Paper GL-8

U.S. agriculture: challenges for the twenty-first century

The U.S. agricultural sector faces both opportunities and challenges in the countdown to the next century. Opportunities include expanded farm export potential that stems from foreign population and income growth, as well as more liberal trade policies. Reflecting this, the annual growth in the value of U.S. farm exports in this decade is much improved over the uneven performance of the 1980s. In addition, advances in biotechnology are improving productivity, reducing costs and providing raw farm products more neatly tailored to the needs and desires of both processors and consumers.
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
World trade: pirated by the downturn

A post-World War II record decline in world trade is likely in 2009.
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
Manufacturing export performance at the state level, 1963-1980

In the 1960s and 1970s international trade was increasingly important for employment and economic growth at the state level; however, scholarly research on the numerous issues concerning international trade and state economic activity is negligible. The present research uses a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework to examine the international trade performance of all fifty states for selected years between 1963 and 1980. A cross-section analysis generates specific conclusions concerning the determinants of manufacturing export performance at the state level. An extension of the analysis using ...
Working Papers , Paper 1987-008



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