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Journal Article
The dubious success of export subsidies for wheat

Review , Issue Nov , Pages 38-47

Journal Article
U.S. international transactions in 2000

The U.S. current account deficit widened to $435 billion in 2000, a record 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, as the lagged effect of strong growth in the U.S. economy in late 1999 and early 2000 continued to drive up imports of goods and services faster than exports increased. To a lesser extent, a decline in U.S. price competitiveness also contributed to the expansion in the deficit. The $104 billion increase in the current account deficit was entirely accounted for by an equal-sized increase in the goods and services deficit. Other components of the current account moved in small and ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 87 , Issue May

Working Paper
Trade elasticities for G-7 countries

This paper reports the results of a project to estimate and test the stability properties of conventional equations relating real imports and exports of goods and services for the G-7 countries to their incomes and relative prices. We begin by estimating cointegration vectors and the error-correction formulations. We then test the stability of these equations using Chow and Kalman-Filter tests. The evidence suggests three findings. First, conventional trade equations and elasticities are stable enough, in most cases, to perform adequately in forecasting and policy simulations. Equations for ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 609

Working Paper
Can debtor countries service their debts? Income and price elasticities for exports of developing countries

Interest in income and price elasticities for international trade has increased recently because of the debt crisis that many developing countries are experiencing. Estimates of income elasticities of import demand, however, range from a low of 1.3 to a high of 4.7. Such differences have important implications for debtor and creditor countries alike. Using quarterly data for the period 1973-1981, this paper estimates income and price elasticities for non-oil imports of five major industrial countries from non-OPEC developing countries. The empirical results suggest that the income elasticity ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 277

Journal Article
Understanding the evolution of trade deficits: trade elasticities of industrialized countries

In this article, the authors present updated trade elasticities?measures of how much imports and exports change in response to income and price changes?for the U.S. and six other industrialized countries, collectively known as the Group of Seven. They find that the imports and exports of these countries are slightly more responsive to changes in a country?s total income over a period that ends in 2006, compared with a period that ends in 1994.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 31 , Issue Q IV , Pages 2-17

Working Paper
Extensive and intensive trade margins: a state-by-state view

This paper examines a topic of increasing interest, the potential determinants of extensive (i.e., number of firms) and intensive (i.e., average exports per firm) trade margins, using state-level trade to 190 countries. In addition to distance and country size, other factors affecting trade costs and export demand are explored. In state-by-state regressions, these other factors exhibit more consistent and statistically significant effects on the extensive than on the intensive trade margin. One noteworthy finding is that U.S. foreign direct investment has a positive effect on both margins. In ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-002

Journal Article
U.S. exporters: a rare breed

National Economic Trends , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Policy update : CAFTA to have mixed effects on region's firms

Econ Focus , Volume 9 , Issue Fall , Pages 11

Journal Article
New tool gauges impact of exchange rates on states

States with relatively more employment tied to international trade are increasingly likely to be sensitive to exchange rate movements, and face sharply different effective exchange rate shifts, often provoked by economic or financial crises. ; Analysts need a tool to more effectively gauge the sometimes varied impact of exchange rate movements on states. In this article, we introduce a measure that compares the value of the dollar against the currencies of countries with which each of the 50 states trade--the real trade-weighted value of the dollar (RTWVD) index. ; To assess the impact of ...
Southwest Economy , Issue Q4 , Pages 3-7

Journal Article
Mexico rides global recovery but still faces hurdles

The Mexican economy has grown robustly following the worst recession since the peso crisis of 1994. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth surged 5.4 percent in 2010, surpassing expectations. Though the pace of expansion slowed in early 2011 as the U.S. engine sputtered, forecasts call for a slight pickup in the second half. ; The recovery is the product of primarily three factors: first, a rebound in manufacturing exports, mostly to the U.S. but also to other markets; second, a strengthening internal market fueled by a healthy domestic financial sector; and third, significant capital inflows ...
Southwest Economy , Issue Q3 , Pages 11-13, 20



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