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An Assessment of Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan provides his assessment of current economic conditions, the outlook for the energy industry, and the current stance of monetary policy.
Dallas Fed Economics

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Suggests Oil Price Drop Won’t Cause Sector Collapse in 2019

Following a banner year in 2018, will U.S. oil producers retrench and reduce capital spending after the recent double-digit oil price decline? The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey provides some clues about what may be next.
Dallas Fed Economics

How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil dropped by more than half from Jan. 21 to April 3. This oil price decline has weakened rather than strengthened the U.S. economy, making this event different from past episodes of falling oil prices.
Dallas Fed Economics

A New View of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations

It has been considered self-evident until recently that oil prices drive inflation expectations, but new evidence calls into question this conclusion.
Dallas Fed Economics

Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump

How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.
Dallas Fed Economics

What Can Be Learned from the Persistent Electric Power Outages in Texas?

Texas suffered massive power outages during unusually cold temperatures in February. Millions of households lost access not only to power but also to heat and water for days—a situation that was foreseeable and could have been avoided.
Dallas Fed Economics

Anticipated Federal Restrictions Would Slow Permian Basin Production

Possible changes to leasing and permitting requirements governing federal lands could move oil production, prompting a realignment of Permian Basin activity between Texas and New Mexico.
Dallas Fed Economics

Cost of Texas’ 2021 Deep Freeze Justifies Weatherization

Our analysis indicates winterizing for extreme winter weather events appears financially reasonable.
Dallas Fed Economics

Oil Market’s Tightening in February Seemingly Defies Fundamentals

Surging oil prices in February have raised hopes that the worst may be over for oil markets, though recent evidence suggests that the recovery will not last.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Energy Investment Variability Within the Macroeconomy

Over the past 10 years, the U.S. energy sector has exerted substantial influence?both positive and negative?on overall U.S. business fixed investment. From 2010 to 2014, a time when energy production in the United States was expanding, investment in the energy sector was a boon to aggregate investment. However, following the sharp oil price decline in 2014, the energy sector was a drag on aggregate investment. {{p}} Assessing the energy sector?s contribution to aggregate investment requires an understanding of both the size of the sector as well as its individual segments. David Rodziewicz ...
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 53-75



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