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Keywords:Economic policy 

Working Paper
Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model

Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread of an epidemic. We empirically discipline the model using new U.S. county-level data on health, mobility, employment outcomes, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) at a daily frequency. Absent policy or medical interventions, the model predicts an initial period of exponential growth in new cases, followed by a protracted period of roughly constant ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-091

Journal Article
Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research

This article describes how and why official U.S. estimates of the growth in real economic output and inflation are revised over time, demonstrates how big those revisions tend to be, and evaluates whether the revisions matter for researchers trying to understand the economy?s performance and the contemporaneous reactions of policymakers. The conclusion may seem obvious, but it is a point ignored by most researchers: To have a good chance of understanding how policymakers make their decisions, researchers must use not the final data available, but the data available initially, when the policy ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 22 , Issue Fall , Pages 3-12

Journal Article
China deflates despite growth

Southwest Economy , Issue May , Pages 14

Journal Article
A monetary analysis of the administration's budget and economic projections

Review , Volume 64 , Issue May , Pages 3-14

Journal Article
Inflation-target design: changing inflation performance and persistence in industrial countries

This paper explores the behavior of inflation in countries that formally target inflation - relative to countries with historically good inflation records - but, which do not target the rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI). Pierre L. Siklos examines the design of inflation targets and the circumstances under which they were introduced. The author also asks, via some simple econometric tests, whether the introduction of targets had any statistically discernible impact on inflation persistence. Additionally, Siklos questions whether inflation persistence changed in the select ...
Review , Issue Mar , Pages 46-58

Journal Article
Would a little inflation produce a bigger recovery? : Why some economists actually want the Fed to push prices higher - and what is might cost the economy

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Econ Focus , Volume 15 , Issue 4Q , Pages 18-21

Journal Article
Research spotlight: The price of avoiding minor financial loss

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Econ Focus , Volume 15 , Issue 1Q , Pages 11

Journal Article
Recognizing economic shifts is key to effective policy

EconSouth , Volume 1 , Issue Q4 , Pages 1, 7

Journal Article
Economic policy issues for 1988 and beyond

A discussion of the uncertainty surrounding economic policy issues in 1988, with emphasis on the need for policymakers to focus on long-term objectives.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Conference Paper
Labor market behavior

In this paper, the author separates the economic from the psychological aspects of labor market behavior and argues that the psychological ones deserve careful study.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 48 , Issue Jun



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