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Keywords:Economic indicators 

Journal Article
Why economic data should be handled with care : the case of the suspiciously slow growth statistic

An abstract for this article is not available.
Economic Review , Volume 69 , Issue Jul , Pages 12-13

Journal Article
Commodity prices as predictors of aggregate price change

Many analysts have advocated using commodity prices as a guide for monetary policy. A necessary condition is that changes in commodity prices are good predictors of future aggregate price changes. This paper examines that proposition. It shows that while commodity prices can help produce more accurate inflation forecasts, the amount of improvement is small.
Economic Review , Volume 74 , Issue Nov , Pages 3-11

Journal Article
Forecasts 1976 : recovery but no bicentennial boom

An abstract for this article is not available.
Economic Review , Volume 62 , Issue Jan , Pages 8-12

Journal Article
Forecasts 1974

Economic Review , Volume 60 , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Financial highlights of 1973

Economic Review , Volume 60 , Issue Jan , Pages 3-8, 12-14

Journal Article
Inflation: measurement and policy issues

The author surveys some problems in measuring inflation and examines the likely costs of anticipated and unanticipated inflation as well as the short-run costs of reducing inflation. He looks at the possibility that an inflationary bias may be implicit in the political economy aspects of the inflation problem, assesses the potential costs and benefits of zero inflation as a policy objective, and considers the possible implications of the inflation problem for monetary policy rules and for the independence of central banks.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Sum

Journal Article
In brief: economic capsules: an overview of inflation measurement

This article surveys a variety of indexes used to measure inflation. The authors identify differences in the construction and coverage of these measures and touch on some of the issues affecting the measurement of prices for a broad range of goods and services.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Sum

Journal Article
Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index

The purchasing managers' index is a widely watched but virtually untested indicator of manufacturing activity. This article examines how well the index lives up to its billing as a leading indicator. The author also explores whether the index supplies information about the economy beyond that already provided by other indicators.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Aut

Report
Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators

This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from 1 to 8 quarters ahead. Results show that stock prices are useful with 1-3 quarter horizons, as are some well-known macroeconomic indicators. Beyond 1 quarter, however, the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically ...
Research Paper , Paper 9609

Report
What do chain store sales tell us about consumer spending?

In recent years, the sales reports of major retail chains have received increasing attention as timely indicators of consumer spending. Despite this attention, a close review of the literature on chain store indexes as macroeconomic indicators reveals that there is no literature! This paper fills this gap, showing how chain store data fit into the broader issues of how we measure and forecast consumer spending. We describe the linkages between chain store data and official measures of consumer spending, highlighting the key seasonality and pricing issues. We then present a battery of ...
Research Paper , Paper 9614

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