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Journal Article
Regional update
Dolmas, Sheila (1998-11)
Southwest Economy , Issue Nov , Pages 11

Speech
Economic outlook : a speech at the Blair County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Club, Altoona, PA, June 11, 2010
Plosser, Charles I. (2010-06-11)
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. ; Blair County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Club, Altoona, PA, June 11, 2010
Speech , Paper 40

Journal Article
A comparison of measures of core inflation
Steindel, Charles; Rich, Robert W. (2007-12)
The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent and transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes in a timely manner has led to the development of measures of underlying, or ?core,? inflation that are designed to remove transitory price changes from aggregate inflation data. Given the usefulness of this information to policymakers, there is a surprising lack of consensus on a preferred measure of U.S. core inflation. This article examines several proposed measures of core inflation?the ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 13 , Issue Dec , Pages 19-38

Speech
Macro overview of the United States
Cumming, Christine M. (2011)
Remarks at the European Economics and Financial Centre, London, England.
Speech , Paper 44

Journal Article
Social indicators and the study of inequality
Meyers, Marcia K.; Garfinkel, Irwin (1999-09)
This paper was presented at the conference "Unequal incomes, unequal outcomes? Economic inequality and measures of well-being" as part of session 5, "Social indicators in New York City." The conference was held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on May 7, 1999. The authors address some of the challenges faced by economists and others who undertake to measure well-being and inequality and to identify inequality's causes and effects. Their project - the New York City Social Indicators Survey (SIS) - uses social indicators to track economic well-being and inequality. By pushing ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 5 , Issue Sep , Pages 149-163

Journal Article
Jargon alert : Leading indicators
Courtois, Renee (2010-04)
Related links : https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2010/q2/jargon_alert_weblinks.cfm
Econ Focus , Volume 14 , Issue 2Q , Pages 8

Journal Article
Comparing Dodge's construction potentials data and the Census Bureau's building permits series
Toohey, Anne; Bansak, Cynthia (1994-03)
Economic Review , Volume 79 , Issue Mar , Pages 23-37

Working Paper
The yield curve and predicting recessions
Wright, Jonathan H. (2006)
The slope of the Treasury yield curve has often been cited as a leading economic indicator, with inversion of the curve being thought of as a harbinger of a recession. In this paper, I consider a number of probit models using the yield curve to forecast recessions. Models that use both the level of the federal funds rate and the term spread give better in-sample fit, and better out-of-sample predictive performance, than models with the term spread alone. There is some evidence that controlling for a term premium proxy as well may also help. I discuss the implications of the current shape of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2006-07

Journal Article
Revision to payroll employment data: are they predictable?
Krikelas, Andrew C. (1994-11)
Economic Review , Volume 79 , Issue Nov , Pages 17-29

Working Paper
Reconciling Unemployment Claims with Job Losses in the First Months of the COVID-19 Crisis
Price, Brendan M.; Ratner, David; Weingarden, Alison E.; Figura, Andrew; Cajner, Tomaz (2020-07-17)
In the spring of 2020, many observers relied heavily on weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits (UI) to estimate contemporaneous reductions in US employment induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Though UI claims provided a timely, high-frequency window into mounting layoffs, the cumulative volume of initial claims filed through the May reference week substantially exceeded realized reductions in payroll employment and likely contributed to the historically large discrepancy between consensus expectations of further April-to-May job losses and the strong job gains reflected in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-055

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