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Keywords:Economic growth 

The recovery and monetary policy

Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, New York City.
Speech , Paper 89

Working Paper
Risk, economic growth and the value of U.S. corporations

This paper documents a strong association between total factor productivity (TFP) growth and the value of U.S. corporations (measured as the value of equities and net debt for the U.S. corporate sector) throughout the postwar period. Persistent fluctuations in the first two moments of TFP growth predict two-thirds of the medium-term variation in the value of U.S. corporations relative to gross domestic product (hence-forth value-output ratio). An increase in the conditional mean of TFP growth by1% is associated to a 21% increase in the value-output ratio, while this indicator declines by 12% ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-10

Working Paper
Accounting for unemployment: the long and short of it

Shimer (2012) accounts for the volatility of unemployment based on a model of homogeneous unemployment. Using data on short-term unemployment he finds that most of unemployment volatility is accounted for by variations in the exit rate from unemployment. The assumption of homogeneous exit rates is inconsistent with the observed negative duration dependence of unemployment exit rates for the U.S. labor market. We construct a simple model of heterogeneous unemployment with short-term and long-term unemployed, and use data on the duration distribution of unemployment to account for entry to and ...
Working Paper , Paper 12-07

Working Paper
Competitors, complementors, parents and places: Explaining regional agglomeration in the U.S. auto industry

Taking the early U.S. automobile industry as an example, we evaluate four competing hypotheses on regional industry agglomeration: intra-industry local externalities, inter-industry local externalities, employee spinouts, and location fixed-effects. Our findings suggest that inter-industry spillovers, particularly the development of the carriage and wagon industry, play an important role. Spinouts play a secondary role and only contribute to agglomeration at later stages of industry evolution. The presence of other firms in the same industry has a negligible (or maybe even negative) effect on ...
Working Paper , Paper 13-04

Working Paper
Transition dynamics in the neoclassical growth model : the case of South Korea

Many cases of successful economic development, such as South Korea, exhibit long periods of sustained capital accumulation rates. This empirical feature is at odds with the standard neoclassical growth model which predicts initially high and then declining capital accumulation rates. We show that minor modifications of the neoclassical model go a long way towards accounting for the transition dynamics of the South Korean economy. Our modifications recognize that (1) agriculture essentially does not use reproducible capital, and that during the transition period (2) the relative price of ...
Working Paper , Paper 11-04

Working Paper
International reserves and rollover risk

Two striking facts about international capital flows in emerging economies motivate this paper: (1) Governments hold large amounts of international reserves, for which they obtain a return lower than their borrowing cost. (2) Purchases of domestic assets by nonresidents and purchases of foreign assets by residents are both procyclical and collapse during crises. We propose a dynamic model of endogenous default that can account for these facts. The government faces a trade-off between the benefits of keeping reserves as a buffer against rollover risk and the cost of having larger gross debt ...
Working Paper , Paper 13-01

The role of monetary policy in bolstering economic growth

Presentation to the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim, San Francisco, California, November 14, 2012
Speech , Paper 114

The recovery’s final frontier?

Presentation to the Mesa Chamber of Commerce Mesa, Arizona, July 15, 2015
Speech , Paper 150

The recovery’s final frontier?

Presentation to International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists, Los Angeles, California, July 8, 2015
Speech , Paper 141

Working Paper
Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World

How do import tariffs and R&D subsidies help domestic firms compete globally? How do these policies affect aggregate growth and economic welfare? To answer these questions, we build a dynamic general equilibrium growth model where firm innovation endogenously determines the dynamics of technology, market leadership, and trade flows, in a world with two large open economies at different stages of development. Firms? R&D decisions are driven by (i) the defensive innovation motive, (ii) the expansionary innovation motive, and (iii) technology spillovers. The theoretical investigation illustrates ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1230


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