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Keywords:Economic forecasting - United States 

The outlook for the economy and monetary policy

Presentation to the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, San Diego, CA, February 22, 2010
Speech , Paper 79

The economic outlook

Presentation to the Seattle Community Development Roundtable, Seattle, WA, November 15, 2010
Speech , Paper 86

Journal Article
Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index

The current economic recovery is proceeding at a tepid pace despite massive federal fiscal stimulus and extremely low interest rates. Forecasts derived from business cycle indicators produced by the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks predict that real U.S. GDP growth through the first half of 2011 will remain at or below potential. If these forecasts prove accurate, then the historical relationship between real GDP growth and the labor market suggests that the unemployment rate could rise by as much as 0.5 percentage point during this period.
FRBSF Economic Letter

The economic outlook for 2009 and community banks

Presentation to the 128th Assembly for Bank Directors, Big Island, HI, February 6, 2009
Speech , Paper 67

The outlook for 2009: economic turmoil and policy responses

Presentation to the Financial Women?s Association, San Francisco, CA, January 15, 2009
Speech , Paper 65

The Federal Reserve and the economic recovery

Presentation to The Columbian?s 2012 Economic Forecast Breakfast, Vancouver, Washington, January 10. 2012
Speech , Paper 96

Journal Article
The Federal Reserve and the economic recovery

During the financial crisis of 2007?09, the Federal Reserve took extraordinary steps to stem financial panic. Since then, the Fed has also taken extraordinary action to boost economic growth. The Fed continues to do its level best to achieve its congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and stable prices. The following is adapted from a speech by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at The Columbian?s Economic Forecast Breakfast January 10, 2012, in Vancouver, Washington.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Perspectives on the economic outlook and monetary policy, a speech delivered at at Xavier University in Cincinnati, Ohio on May 11, 2011

In a speech at Xavier University in Cincinnati, Ohio, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President and CEO Sandra Pianalto discussed why the economic outlook is so important to the monetary policymaking process and what goes into economic forecasting. She also shared her economic outlook.
Speech , Paper 38

Working Paper
The market-perceived monetary policy rule

We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. Market forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy are affected by news, and our estimation links the two effects. This enables us to estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their expectations, and in so doing flexibly capture the particular dynamics of policy response. We find evidence that between 1994 and 2007 the market-perceived Federal Reserve policy rule changed: the output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 982