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Keywords:Economic forecasting 

Working Paper
Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium

Linearized New Keynesian models and empirical no-arbitrage macro-finance models offer little insight regarding the implications of changes in bond term premiums for economic activity. We investigate these implications using both a structural model and a reduced-form framework. We show that there is no structural relationship running from the term premium to economic activity, but a reduced-form empirical analysis does suggest that a decline in the term premium has typically been associated with stimulus to real economic activity, which contradicts earlier results in the literature.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-46

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the normalization of monetary policy: a speech at the Society of Business Economists annual conference, London, England, June 9, 2011

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Society of Business Economists Annual Conference, London, England, June 9, 2011
Speech , Paper 55

Newsletter
Economic Outlook Symposium: summary of 2004 results and forecasts for 2005

The forecasters expect more moderate economic growth during 2005, with some reduction in activity in the housing sector and a slower pace of consumer spending growth than in the past several years.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Feb

Speech
Economic outlook : a speech at the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, DuPont Country Club, Wilmington, Delaware, May 7, 2010

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia> Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, DuPont Country Club, Wilmington, Delaware, May 7, 2010
Speech , Paper 39

Working Paper
Anchoring bias in consensus forecasts and its effect on market prices

Previous empirical studies that test for the "rationality" of economic and financial forecasts generally test for generic properties such as bias or autocorrelated errors, and provide limited insight into the behavior behind inefficient forecasts. In this paper we test for a specific behavioral bias -- the anchoring bias described by Tversky and Kahneman (1974). In particular, we examine whether expert consensus forecasts of monthly economic releases from Money Market Services surveys from 1990-2006 have a tendency to be systematically biased toward the value of previous months' data ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2007-12

Working Paper
Incorporating judgement in fan charts

Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system, and accordingly, a particular predictive density - or fan chart - associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2006-39

Working Paper
Common drifting volatility in large Bayesian VARs

The estimation of large vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility using standard methods is computationally very demanding. In this paper we propose to model conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor.> This is justified by the observation that the pattern of estimated volatilities in empirical analyses is often very similar across variables. Using a combination of a standard natural conjugate prior for the VAR coefficients and an independent prior on a common stochastic volatility factor, we derive the posterior densities for the parameters of the ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1206

Speech
The economic outlook and some challenges facing the Federal Reserve: a speech at the Economic Outlook Panel, University of Delaware, January 14, 2009

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2009 Economic Outlook Panel, University of Delaware, January 14, 2009
Speech , Paper 23

Working Paper
A response to Cogley and Sbordone's comment on “Closed-Form Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time-Varying Trend Inflation”

In their 2010 comment (which we refer to as CS10), Cogley and Sbordone argue that: (1) our estimates are not entirely closed form, and hence are arbitrary; (2) we cannot guarantee that our estimates are valid, while their estimates (Cogley and Sbordone 2008, henceforth CS08) always are; and (3) the estimates in CS08, in terms of goodness of fit, are just as good as other, much different estimates in our paper. We show in this reply that the exact closed-form estimates are virtually the same as the "quasi" closed-form estimates. Our estimates are consistent with the implicit assumptions ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-4

Journal Article
Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators

Business Review , Issue Nov/Dec , Pages 15-27

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Plosser, Charles I. 36 items

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Kliesen, Kevin L. 8 items

Kohn, Donald L. 8 items

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Economic forecasting 217 items

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