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Keywords:Economic forecasting 

Speech
Economic outlook and monetary policy

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia CFA Society of Philadelphia/The Bond Club of Philadelphia, September 25, 2012
Speech , Paper 72

Speech
Economic outlook : a speech at the Blair County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Club, Altoona, PA, June 11, 2010

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. ; Blair County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Club, Altoona, PA, June 11, 2010
Speech , Paper 40

Working Paper
Expectations and economic fluctuations: an analysis using survey data

Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations, and their interaction with monetary policy, contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. We also find that the short-term interest rate rises in response to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2010-09

Journal Article
Ninth District economy slips into a recession

Ninth Federal Reserve District 2009 Economic Forecast
Fedgazette , Volume 21 , Issue Jan , Pages 12-14

Speech
The current state of the economy and a look to the future (with reference to William 'Sidestroke' Miles, W. Somerset Maugham, Don Ameche and Kenneth Arrow)

Remarks before the Austin Headliners Club, Austin, Texas, November 10, 2009 ; "The Federal Reserve has done what it can to prevent Depression 2.0 and the deflation that one would have expected might accompany economic collapse. It will take some time, in my opinion, to get back on a steady pathway to a pace of growth that will result in significant job creation. We are in for a long slog. We had a snapback in growth in the third quarter and can expect that will continue in the current quarter. But looking into 2010 and perhaps to 2011, the most likely outcome is for growth to be suboptimal, ...
Speeches and Essays , Paper 3

Speech
Some thoughts on the economy and financial regulatory reform: a speech at the Economics Club of Pittsburgh, November 13, 2008

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, at the Economics Club of Pittsburgh, November 13, 2008
Speech , Paper 21

Working Paper
The yield curve and predicting recessions

The slope of the Treasury yield curve has often been cited as a leading economic indicator, with inversion of the curve being thought of as a harbinger of a recession. In this paper, I consider a number of probit models using the yield curve to forecast recessions. Models that use both the level of the federal funds rate and the term spread give better in-sample fit, and better out-of-sample predictive performance, than models with the term spread alone. There is some evidence that controlling for a term premium proxy as well may also help. I discuss the implications of the current shape of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2006-07

Working Paper
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities

Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. The uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from a range of approaches will improve forecast accuracy. Focusing on models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper examines the effectiveness of combining various models of instability in improving VAR forecasts made with ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-030

Working Paper
Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities

Small-scale VARs are widely used in macroeconomics for forecasting U.S. output, prices, and interest rates. However, recent work suggests these models may exhibit instabilities. As such, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve their forecast accuracy. These include using different observation windows for estimation, intercept correction, time-varying parameters, break dating, Bayesian shrinkage, model averaging, etc. This paper compares the effectiveness of such methods in real time forecasting. We use forecasts from univariate time series models, the Survey of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2007-41

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