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Speech
Job creation in the region
Dudley, William (2011)
Remarks by President Dudley at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Speech , Paper 61

Report
Was the New Deal contractionary?
Eggertsson, Gauti B. (2006)
Can government policies that increase the monopoly power of firms and the militancy of unions increase output? This paper studies this question in a dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal frictions and shows that these policies are expansionary when certain "emergency" conditions apply. I argue that these emergency conditions-zero interest rates and deflation-were satisfied during the Great Depression in the United States. Therefore, the New Deal, which facilitated monopolies and union militancy, was expansionary, according to the model. This conclusion is contrary to the one reached ...
Staff Reports , Paper 264

Report
Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L. Vanessa (2008)
This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end, a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model previously estimated over the 1979:Q1-2003:Q4 period by Dees, de Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) is used to generate out-of-sample one-quarter- and four-quarters-ahead forecasts of real output, inflation, real equity prices, exchange rates, and interest rates over the period 2004:Q1-2005:Q4. Forecasts are obtained for 134 variables from twenty-six regions made up of thirty-three countries ...
Staff Reports , Paper 317

Report
The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Rich, Robert W.; Song, Joseph; Tracy, Joseph (2012)
We use matched point and density forecasts of output growth and inflation from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to derive measures of forecast uncertainty, forecast dispersion, and forecast accuracy. We construct uncertainty measures from aggregate density functions as well as from individual histograms. The uncertainty measures display countercyclical behavior, and there is evidence of increased uncertainty for output growth and inflation since 2007. The results also indicate that uncertainty displays a very weak relationship with forecast dispersion, corroborating the findings of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 588

Report
Shock identification of macroeconomic forecasts based on daily panels
Amstad, Marlene; Fischer, Andreas M. (2005)
This paper proposes a new procedure for shock identification of macroeconomic forecasts based on factor analysis. Our identification scheme for information shocks relies on data reduction techniques for daily panels and the recognition that macroeconomic releases exhibit a high level of clustering. A large number of data releases on a single day is of considerable practical interest not only for the estimation but also for the identification of the factor model. The clustering of cross-sectional information facilitates the interpretation of the forecast innovations as real or as nominal ...
Staff Reports , Paper 206

Report
Dynamic hierarchical factor models
Moench, Emanuel; Ng, Serena; Potter, Simon M. (2009)
This paper uses multi-level factor models to characterize within- and between-block variations as well as idiosyncratic noise in large dynamic panels. Block-level shocks are distinguished from genuinely common shocks, and the estimated block-level factors are easy to interpret. The framework achieves dimension reduction and yet explicitly allows for heterogeneity between blocks. The model is estimated using a Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithm that takes into account the hierarchical structure of the factors. We organize a panel of 447 series into blocks according to the timing of data ...
Staff Reports , Paper 412

Working Paper
Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions
Clark, Todd E.; McCracken, Michael W. (2013)
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point and density forecasts in the context of forecasts made by Vector Autoregressions. Specific emphasis is placed on highlighting those parts of the existing literature that are applicable to direct multi-step forecasts and those parts that are applicable to iterated multi-step forecasts. This literature includes advancements in the evaluation of forecasts in population (based on true, unknown model coefficients) and the evaluation of forecasts in the finite sample (based on estimated model coefficients). The paper then examines in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-010

Working Paper
Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons
Clark, Todd E.; McCracken, Michael W. (2010)
This paper develops a novel and effective bootstrap method for simulating asymptotic critical values for tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing among many nested models. The bootstrap, which combines elements of fixed regressor and wild bootstrap methods, is simple to use. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to forecasts from multiple models that nest the benchmark model ? that is, reality check tests applied to nested models. We then prove the validity of the bootstrap for these tests. Monte Carlo experiments ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-032

Working Paper
Multi-step ahead forecasting of vector time series
McElroy, Tucker S.; McCracken, Michael W. (2012)
This paper develops the theory of multi-step ahead forecasting for vector time series that exhibit temporal nonstationarity and co-integration. We treat the case of a semi-infinite past, developing the forecast filters and the forecast error filters explicitly, and also provide formulas for forecasting from a finite-sample of data. This latter application can be accomplished by the use of large matrices, which remains practicable when the total sample size is moderate. Expressions for Mean Square Error of forecasts are also derived, and can be implemented readily. Three diverse data ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-060

Working Paper
Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts
Clark, Todd E.; McCracken, Michael W. (2008)
This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on combining recursive and rolling forecasts when linear predictive models are subject to structural change. Using a characterization of the bias-variance tradeoff faced when choosing between either the recursive and rolling schemes or a scalar convex combination of the two, we derive optimal observation windows and combining weights designed to minimize mean square forecast error. Monte Carlo experiments and several empirical examples indicate that combination can often provide improvements in forecast accuracy relative to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-028

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