Search Results

Showing results 1 to 1 of approximately 1.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Keywords:Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy Article 

Briefing
Macroeconomic Effects of Household Pessimism and Optimism

Survey data on households' expectations about macroeconomic outcomes reveal systematic differences from statistical (or rational) forecasts. We construct an empirical measure of these differences, which we refer to as "belief wedges." Across economic variables, such as inflation and unemployment, these belief wedges are significant and move in parallel with the business cycle. We present a theory of time-varying belief wedges that accounts for these empirical facts. Our theory provides a formal interpretation of these wedges as pessimism and optimism. Embedding the theory into a quantitative ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 03

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

Briefing 1 items

FILTER BY Author

PREVIOUS / NEXT