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Report
Capital flows & current account deficits in the 1990s: why did Latin America & East Asian countries respond differently?
The return of private capital to highly indebted less-developed countries (LDCs) in the late 1980s was accompanied by widening current account deficits in the recipient countries, which were primarily attributed to a consumption boom in Latin America and an investment surge in East Asia. Interpreting the return as an increase in the external debt ceiling, the maximum amount that can be borrowed, this paper analyzes and compares the different response of the two regions using the conceptual framework of a borrowing-constrained agent. According to it, an increase in the debt ceiling can reduce ...
Conference Paper
The East Asian financial crisis
Conference Paper
Resolution of bank insolvency and borrower evaluation in East Asia
Working Paper
Trade prices and volumes in East Asia through the crisis
This paper presents a break-down of the export and import performance of select East Asian countries into price and volume effects. The results show that in aggregate, the decline in export revenue experienced by these countries in 1998 was largely due to a 9.1 percent fall in prices, and that export volume actually rose. Similarly, while the import volume of these countries did fall in 1998, the decline was not as great as in the dollar value of those imports, but reflected a greater slide in import prices of 10.8 percent. The fall in import and export prices in the East Asian region began ...
Working Paper
Central banks' use in East Asia of money market instruments in the conduct of monetary policy
The paper examines the greater use in the past decade of money market instruments in the conduct of monetary policy by the central banks, or their equivalent, in six of the main East Asian developing economies. Some of these economies have been successful in using various money market instruments to control liquidity, while others have been much less successful. A common theme in the case of the successful economies has been one of employing money market instruments that have yields based on actual market demand and supply. In those cases where the yields have been unrealistic due to not ...
Journal Article
Did a boom in money and credit precede east Asia's recent currency crisis?
This paper assesses the relationship between money and credit and episodes of sharp depreciation in East Asia by: (i) examining the growth rates of money and credit variables around depreciation episodes; (ii) estimating the impact of money and credit variables on the probability of a sharp depreciation episode using logit models; (iii) evaluating the signals contained in money and credit variables prior to episodes of sharp currency depreciation. ; Reserve money grew rapidly prior to the 1997 currency crisis in East Asia. However, signs of a money or credit boom based on other indicators ...
Working Paper
How bad are twins? output costs of currency and banking crises
We investigate the output effects of severe banking and currency crises in emerging markets, focusing on whether twin crises (simultaneous occurrence of currency and banking crises) exist as a unique phenomenon and whether they entail especially large losses. Recent literature, mostly relating to the East Asian crisis, emphasizes the interplay and reinforcement between currency and banking crises, presumably making twin crises particularly damaging to the real economy. Using a panel data set over the 197597 period and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we find that twin crises do not ...
Working Paper
Asia's financial crisis: lessons and policy responses
This paper argues that fundamental weaknesses in Asian financial systems that had been masked by rapid growth were at the root of East Asia's 1997 currency and financial crisis. These weaknesses were caused by the lack of incentives for effective risk management created by implicit or explicit government guarantees against failure. The weakness of the financial sector was accentuated by large capital inflows, which were partly encouraged by pegged exchange rates. ; Policy responses need to be designed to restore growth in an environment of macroeconomic stability in the short run, and to ...
Working Paper
Was there a boom in money and credit prior to East Asia's recent currency crisis?
This paper assesses the relationship between money and credit and episodes of sharp depreciation in East Asia by (i) examining growth rates of money and credit variables around depreciation episodes; (ii) estimating the impact of money and credit variables on the probability of a share depreciation episode using logit models; (iii) evaluating the signals contained in money and credit variables prior to episodes of sharp currency depreciation. Reserve money grew rapidly prior to the 1997 currency crisis in East Asia. However, signs of a money or credit boom based on other indicators were ...
Working Paper
Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms
The traditional fundamentals suggested by first and second-generation of crisis models did not provide much indication of an impending crisis in Asia. Growing current account deficits and somewhat overvalued real exchange rates suggested some need to curtail domestic demand and/or engineer nominal currency depreciation, but did not suggest a crisis of the magnitude that has occurred. ; Nevertheless, to a large extent, the Asian crisis can be explained in terms of impulses and propagation mechanisms related to fundamentals, specifically general weaknesses and distortions in the financial ...