Working Paper
Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy
Guler, Bulent; Michaud, Amanda M. (2024-10-15)
We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals’ past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. We provide novel cohort evidence supporting this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using restricted administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the U.S. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 101

Working Paper
Online Appendix: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy
Guler, Bulent; Michaud, Amanda M. (2024-10-15)
This online appendix accompanies Institute Working Paper 101: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy.
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 102