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Working Paper
Are children 'normal'?

In his classic work on the economics of fertility, Becker (1960) suggests that children are likely ?normal.? We examine this contention. Our first step is documenting an empirical regularity about the cross section of white married couples in the U.S.: when we restrict comparisons to households living in broadly similar locations (e.g., in expensive urban areas, or in rural areas), completed fertility is positively correlated with the husband?s income. Two alternative models rationalize the data?one in which children are ?normal? and a second in which the observed pattern emerges solely as a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-040

The young, the old, and the restless: demographics and business cycle volatility

We investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in business cycle volatility observed in the U.S. and other G7 economies. During the postwar period, these countries experienced dramatic demographic change, although details regarding extent and timing differ from place to place. Using panel-data methods, we exploit this variation to show that the age composition of the workforce has a large and statistically significant effect on cyclical ...
Staff Report , Paper 387

A perspective on the graying population and current account balances

Presentation to the Global Economic Outlook (GEO) Conference, West Palm Beach, Fla., March. 8, 2005
Speech , Paper 7

Journal Article
The rich and the poor: demographics of the U.S. wealth distribution

In this article, John C. Weicher extends his 1995 and 1996 reports on the distribution of U.S. wealth to present a detailed examination of the demographics of the richest and poorest households. He concludes that concern over the concentration of wealth should be tempered by the apparent fact that "the rich" are a changing group, even over short periods of time. Among his other interesting findings is the observation that most of our nation's rich are entrepreneurs in the American tradition. Less than 8 percent of the net worth of households in the richest 1 percent comes from ...
Review , Issue Jul , Pages 25-37

Journal Article
Don't worry, we'll grow out of it: an analysis of demographics, consumer spending, and foreign debt

An analysis of the impact of the baby-boom generation's inrush into the work force on consumer spending, debt, and foreign investment, finding evidence that age demographics are a strong determinant of aggregate household consumption.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

The road to recovery: Brooklyn

Remarks by President Dudley at the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce Brooklyn Borough Hall, Brooklyn, New York.
Speech , Paper 58

Journal Article
Demographics, redistribution, and optimal inflation

The authors study the interaction among population demographics, the desire for intergenerational redistribution of resources in the economy, and the optimal inflation rate in a deterministic life cycle economy with capital. Young cohorts initially have no assets and wages are the main source of income; these cohorts prefer relatively low real interest rates, relatively high wages, and relatively high rates of inflation. Older cohorts work less and prefer higher rates of return from their savings, relatively low wages, and relatively low inflation. In the absence of intergenerational ...
Review , Issue Nov , Pages 419-440

Conference Paper
Demographics, Social Security reform, and labor supply

Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Summary of the Report on the Competitiveness of Puerto Rico's Economy

Remarks before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce Annual Convention, Fajardo, Puerto Rico.
Speech , Paper 86

Journal Article
Is the population boom a boon?

National Economic Trends , Issue Jan



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Dudley, William 6 items

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