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Conference Paper
World population in 2050: assessing the projections: discussion

Joel Cohen was asked by the conference organizers to focus a critical eye on demographic projections and to give special attention to the outlook for the elderly and for total dependency ratios. He was very faithful to his assignment. I have only a few points to raise about his paper before going on to discuss one issue that he did not cover (and was not asked to cover) but that I think should be addressed as part of a comprehensive treatment of population prospects for the year 2050. The issue is the current youth bulge in many of the world's poorest countries that have yet to reap the ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 46

Journal Article
Is the population boom a boon?

National Economic Trends , Issue Jan

Working Paper
The Baby Boomers and the Productivity Slowdown

The entry of baby boomers into the labor market in the 1970s slowed growth for physical and human capital per worker because young workers have little of both. Thus, the baby boom could have contributed to the 1970s productivity slowdown. I build and calibrate a model a la Huggett et al. (2011) with exogenous population and TFP to evaluate this theory. The baby boom accounts for 75% of the slowdown in the period 1964-69, 25% in 1970-74 and 2% in 1975-79. The retiring of baby boomers may cause a 2.8pp decline in productivity growth between 2020 and 2040, ceteris paribus.
Working Papers , Paper 2018-37

Working Paper
The impact of AFDC on birth decisions and program participation

A longitudinal study examining how the level of AFDC benefits and the per-child increment affect births. Although the findings support the "AFDC benefits cause births" hypothesis, the author shows that eliminating the new-birth increment would reduce total program costs by less than 3 percent, since both the per-dollar effect of benefits on births and the per-child increments themselves are small.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9408

Working Paper
The baby boom and economic growth

This paper presents a model of economic growth based on the life-cycle hypothesis to determine the path of capital accumulation and economic growth as the baby boom passes through the U.S. economy. The model predicts that a baby boom causes a temporary decline of the capital-labor ratio. The temporary drop of the capital-labor ratio requires a decrease in consumption per capita but as the baby boom generation nears retirement, capital intensity increases, which raises output per worker and per capita consumption. Furthermore, and perhaps counter intuitively, the model predicts that the saving ...
Working Papers , Paper 1994-001

Conference Paper
Demographic shocks: the view from history

The paper will basically deal with four issues. The first one puts current changes or shifts into a historical comparative perspective. The second deals with "traditional" shocks or violent disturbances of the system and their consequences. The third discusses the "seismic" changes experienced in the past, attempts their measurement, and exemplifies their effects on population and society. The fourth deals with the relevance that past experience has for current changes.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 46

The road to recovery: Brooklyn

Remarks by President Dudley at the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce Brooklyn Borough Hall, Brooklyn, New York.
Speech , Paper 58

Journal Article
Demographics, redistribution, and optimal inflation

The authors study the interaction among population demographics, the desire for intergenerational redistribution of resources in the economy, and the optimal inflation rate in a deterministic life cycle economy with capital. Young cohorts initially have no assets and wages are the main source of income; these cohorts prefer relatively low real interest rates, relatively high wages, and relatively high rates of inflation. Older cohorts work less and prefer higher rates of return from their savings, relatively low wages, and relatively low inflation. In the absence of intergenerational ...
Review , Issue Nov , Pages 419-440

Conference Paper
Policy implications of demographic change: panel discussion: notes on demographic changes and the welfare state

The flow of unskilled, low-earning migrants to developed countries with a comprehensive social security system, including retirement benefits, has attracted both public and academic attention in recent years. Being relatively low earners, the migrants typically are net beneficiaries of the welfare state in the short run. Therefore, an almost unanimous opposition to migration may arise in the potential host countries.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 46 , Pages 289-296

Journal Article
Population, sprawl and immigration trends in Eighth District metro areas vary widely

The Regional Economist , Issue Jul , Pages 16-17



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