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Journal Article
The Coronavirus and the Economy
Rodgers, Rachel; Romero, Jessie; Price, David A.; Crouse, Jacob; Shen, Luna (2020-01)
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 3-6

Reading the Labor Market in Real Time
Bharadwaj, Asha; Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2020-06-09)
A coincident index developed by one of our economists can help gauge the pace of the recovery and obtain real-time information on the state of the labor market.
On the Economy

COVID-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk?
Gascon, Charles S. (2020-03-24)
Some 46% of U.S. workers are employed in occupations at “high risk” of layoff due to COVID-19 measures. How much could it cost to offset their lost income?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act
Carroll, Christopher D.; White, Matthew N.; Crawley, Edmund S.; Slacalek, Jiri (2020-08-31)
To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear when it is lifted. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived, the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-077

Discussion Paper
Does the BCG Vaccine Protect Against Coronavirus? Applying an Economist’s Toolkit to a Medical Question
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Bluhm, Richard (2020-05-11)
As COVID-19 has spread across the globe, there is an intense search for treatments and vaccines, with numerous trials running in multiple countries. Several observers and prominent news outlets have noticed that countries still administering an old vaccine against tuberculosis—the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine—have had fewer coronavirus cases and fewer deaths per capita in the early stages of the outbreak. But is that correlation really strong evidence that the BCG vaccine provides some defense against COVID-19? In this post, we look at the incidence of coronavirus cases along ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200511

Working Paper
Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Seitelman, Lily; Glick, Reuven; Lansing, Kevin J.; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas (2020-06-30)
We fit a simple epidemiology model to daily data on the number of currently-infected cases of COVID-19 in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from late to early, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. Using the model-implied time series of Rt, we construct a smoothed version of the in-sample trajectory which is used to project the future evolution of Rt and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-24

The State of COVID-19 around the Eighth District
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2020-05-06)
What have COVID-19 trends in cases and deaths looked like in the largest MSAs in the District?
On the Economy

COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
Shell, Hannah; Owyang, Michael T.; Bennett, Julie (2020-03-20)
Professional forecasts abound, but what does the general public think will happen with the economy?
On the Economy

Is the U.S. Looking Like Italy? Projections on COVID-19 Death Rates
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2020-04-13)
After adjusting for population, daily coronavirus deaths are less in the U.S. than in Italy. However, the U.S. seems to be catching up with Italy on that metric.
On the Economy

COVID-19 and Unemployment Risk: State and MSA Differences
Werner, Devin; Gascon, Charles S. (2020-04-03)
Which states and MSAs have large shares of workers at high risk of unemployment?
On the Economy

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