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Keywords:Coronavirus 

COVID-19 and the Importance of Testing

Using only the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases does not help us understand the scope of the pandemic.
On the Economy

COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts

With schools closed due to COVID-19, many full-time workers may drop out of the labor force to take care of their children. Which groups of workers might be most affected?
On the Economy

COVID-19 and Financial Distress: Vulnerability to Infection and Death

Although COVID-19 initially spread faster in areas with low financial distress, evidence suggests that infections may spread most rapidly in highly financially distressed areas moving forward.
On the Economy

Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommends declaring a “National Pandemic Adjustment Period” and discusses three broad goals of macroeconomic policy during this period.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number

We fit a simple epidemiology model to daily data on the number of currently-infected cases of COVID-19 in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from late to early, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. Using the model-implied time series of Rt, we construct a smoothed version of the in-sample trajectory which is used to project the future evolution of Rt and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-24

Predicting the Unemployment Rate in a Time of Coronavirus

Economists forecast the unemployment rate all the time. Usually, though, they use data over the previous months and quarters to forecast the unemployment rate out several years. Since the relationships between the unemployment rate and things like GDP growth and employment are mostly stable over time, and since month-to-month movements in the unemployment rate are usually small, these forecasts usually work well.
Midwest Economy Blog

The State of COVID-19 around the Eighth District

What have COVID-19 trends in cases and deaths looked like in the largest MSAs in the District?
On the Economy

House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing

Lower housing demand due to quarantine orders, slowing price growth and mortgage originations, and a historically high housing supply are all hitting the economy at the same time.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act

To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear when it is lifted. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived, the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-077

How Much Does the U.S. Rely on Other Countries for Essential Medical Equipment?

On the Economy

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