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Keywords:Consumption (Economics) 

Journal Article
Estimating intertemporal elasticity of substitution: the case of log- linear restrictions

Are linear regression models reliable in testing whether high expected real interest rates encourage current savings and deferred consumption? Here, a Monte Carlo test shows that a linear model yields a fairly accurate estimate and small standard error, but is highly susceptible to specification bias.
Economic Review , Volume 76 , Issue Nov , Pages 3-14

Journal Article
On defining real consumption

Review , Issue May , Pages 47-53

Journal Article
The consumer durable goods situation

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Oct , Pages 1225-1234

Journal Article
Is household debt inhibiting the recovery?

An examination of the pattern of household debt and asset levels in a historical context, whose results cast doubt on the presumption that heavy consumer debt loads incurred during the 1980s are the cause of the economy's current sluggishness.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects

This paper finds that consumer attitudes, as reflected in surveys of consumer sentiment, have a significant influence on household purchases of durable goods. Normally, consumer sentiment moves with current economic conditions and bears a stable relationship to a few economic variables. At times of a major economic or political event like the Gulf War, however, consumer sentiment can move independently from current economic conditions. At such times it provides useful information about future consumer expenditures that is not otherwise available.
Economic Review

Report
Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels

We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility - most dramatically in the durable goods sector - but with no decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less ...
Staff Reports , Paper 334

Journal Article
The supply and price situation

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Jan

Working Paper
Identifying long-run risks: a bayesian mixed-frequency approach

We develop a nonlinear state-space model that captures the joint dynamics of consumption, dividend growth, and asset returns. Building on Bansal and Yaron (2004), our model consists of an economy containing a common predictable component for consumption and dividend growth and multiple stochastic volatility processes. The estimation is based on annual consumption data from 1929 to 1959, monthly consumption data after 1959, and monthly asset return data throughout. We maximize the span of the sample to recover the predictable component and use high-frequency data, whenever available, to ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-39

Working Paper
A robust Hansen-Sargent prediction formula

This paper derives a formula for the optimal forecast of a discounted sum of future values of a random variable. This problem reflects a preference for robustness in the presence of (unstructured) model uncertainty. The paper shows that revisions of a robust forecast are more sensitive to new information, and discusses the relevance of this result to previous findings of excess sensitivity of consumption and asset prices to new information.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2000-11

Report
A quantitative analysis of the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, 1970-2000

In this paper, we construct a parsimonious overlapping-generations model of human capital accumulation and study its quantitative implications for the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution from 1970 to 2000. A key feature of the model is that individuals differ in their ability to accumulate human capital, which is the main source of wage inequality in this model. We examine the response of this model to skill-biased technical change (SBTC), which is modeled as an increase in the trend growth rate of the price of human capital starting in the early 1970s. The model displays behavior that is ...
Staff Report , Paper 427

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Consumption (Economics) 295 items

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