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Journal Article
Evolution of U.S. trade with China
Orr, James A. (1991-01)
Despite the improvements in the overall U.S. trade balance in the latter half of the 1980s, the U.S. trade deficit with China has widened significantly. This article investigates the factors underlying this growing deficit and analyzes how growth in imports from China has affected the pattern of U.S. imports from other Asian economies, notably Hong Kong.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Win , Pages 47-54

Report
Information asymmetry, market segmentation, and the pricing of cross-listed shares: theory and evidence from Chinese A and B shares
Sarkar, Asani; Wu, Lifan; Chakravarty, Sugato (1998)
In contrast to most other countries, Chinese foreign class B shares trade at an average discount of about 60 percent to the prices at which domestic A shares trade. We argue that one reason for the large price discount of B shares is because foreign investors have less information on Chinese stocks than domestic investors. We develop a model, incorporating both informational asymmetry and market segmentation, and derive a relative pricing equation for A shares and B shares. We show theoretically that an A share index security, tradable by foreigners, increases the liquidity of B shares. Our ...
Research Paper , Paper 9820

Discussion Paper
Does China’s Zero Covid Strategy Mean Zero Economic Growth?
Clark, Hunter L.; Lin, Lawrence (2022-06-02)
The Chinese government has followed a “zero covid strategy” (ZCS) ever since the world’s first COVID-19 lockdowns ended in China around late March and early April of 2020. While this strategy has been effective at maintaining low infection levels and robust manufacturing and export activity, its viability is being severely strained by the spread of increasingly infectious coronavirus variants. As a result, there now appears to be a fundamental incompatibility between the ZCS and the government’s economic growth objectives.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220602

Working Paper
Foreign direct investment in China: a spatial econometric study
Coughlin, Cletus C.; Segev, Eran (1999)
Foreign direct investment (FDI) began to flow into China with advent of reforms in 1978. Following a period of relatively slow growth, FDI inflows to China picked up after 1990, as China surpassed every other nation but the United States in attracting foreign investment. In particular, coastal regions of China have received the bulk of FDI inflows to the country. In this paper, we use province-level data to explain the pattern of FDI location across China. We build upon previous research, introducing new potential determinants, using more recent FDI data, and incorporating spatial econometric ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-001

Working Paper
Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing
Goernemann, Nils; Dias, Daniel A.; Hoek, Jasper; Jain, Anil K.; Ahmed, Shaghil; Correa, Ricardo; Wong, Anna; Liu, Edith X. (2019-10-18)
China?s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1260

Working Paper
U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks
Barcelona, William; Wong, Anna; Converse, Nathan L. (2021-11-12)
This paper demonstrates that the measured stock of China's holding of U.S. assets could be much higher than indicated by the U.S. net international investment position data due to unrecorded historical Chinese inflows into an increasingly popular global safe haven asset: U.S. residential real estate. We first use aggregate capital flows data to show that the increase in unrecorded capital inflows in the U.S. balance of payment accounts over the past decade is mainly linked to inflows from China into U.S. housing markets. Then, using a unique web traffic dataset that provides a direct measure ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1332

Discussion Paper
Global Supply Chains and U.S. Import Price Inflation
Amiti, Mary; Itskhoki, Oleg; Weinstein, David E. (2024-03-04)
Inflation around the world increased dramatically with the reopening of economies following COVID-19. After reaching a peak of 11 percent in the second quarter of 2021, world trade prices dropped by more than five percentage points by the middle of 2023. U.S. import prices followed a similar pattern, albeit with a lower peak and a deeper trough. In a new study, we investigate what drove these price movements by using information on the prices charged for products shipped from fifty-two exporters to fifty-two importers, comprising more than twenty-five million trade flows. We uncover several ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240304

Journal Article
Is China's economy losing its luster?
Altig, David E. (2007)
EconSouth , Volume 9 , Issue 4

Discussion Paper
Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China?
Nattinger, Michael; Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-11-25)
Tariffs are a form of taxation. Indeed, before the 1920s, tariffs (or customs duties) were typically the largest source of funding for the U.S. government. Of little interest for decades, tariffs are again becoming relevant, given the substantial increase in the rates charged on imports from China. U.S. businesses and consumers are shielded from the higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower the dollar prices they charge. U.S. import price data, however, indicate that prices on goods from China have so far not fallen. As a result, U.S. wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191125

Working Paper
New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks
Ulate, Mauricio; Vasquez, Jose P.; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres (2020-09-01)
There is a growing empirical consensus that trade shocks can have important effects on unemployment and nonemployment across local-labor markets within an economy. This paper introduces downward nominal wage rigidity to an otherwise standard quantitative trade model and shows how this framework can generate changes in unemployment and nonemployment that match those uncovered by the empirical literature studying the “China shock.” We also compare the associated welfare effects predicted by this model with those in the model without unemployment. We find that the China shock leads to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-32

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