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Working Paper
Foreign direct investment in China: a spatial econometric study

Foreign direct investment (FDI) began to flow into China with advent of reforms in 1978. Following a period of relatively slow growth, FDI inflows to China picked up after 1990, as China surpassed every other nation but the United States in attracting foreign investment. In particular, coastal regions of China have received the bulk of FDI inflows to the country. In this paper, we use province-level data to explain the pattern of FDI location across China. We build upon previous research, introducing new potential determinants, using more recent FDI data, and incorporating spatial econometric ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-001

Journal Article
How Stable Is China’s Growth? Shedding Light on Sparse Data

Policymakers, academics, and market participants have raised many questions in recent years over the accuracy of China’s official economic growth rates, both in terms of levels and volatility. This issue is of considerable importance for policymakers because fluctuations in China’s economic activity can have significant impacts on growth, employment, inflation, and other policy objectives, given China’s large shares of world output, trade, and commodity demand, and its rapidly growing role in global financial markets. This study addresses the question of growth volatility using a set of ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 4 , Pages 1-38

Working Paper
Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?

China's strong growth in the midst of the Asian crisis is striking. We explore features of China's financial system that helped insulate it from the crisis, and then try to assess whether China has avoided crisis or simply deferred it. We argue that regardless of whether the Asian crisis resulted from weak fundamentals or from "country runs" by investors, it is not surprising that China has survived so far. In a market-oriented system, pressures generally force rapid adjustment when institutions are, or are perceived to be, insolvent; these mechanisms do not operate fully in China. In ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 633

A perspective on China

"In contemplating China, we need to look past carefully crafted images and deepen our understanding of her national interest. Failure to do so will be perilous." ; Remarks to a Working Dinner Sponsored by the Progress & Freedom Foundation, Aspen, Colorado, August 18, 2008.
Speeches and Essays , Paper 25

Working Paper
Can rising housing prices explain China’s high household saving rate?

China?s average household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast rising housing prices and other costs of living in China. This article uses simple economic logic to show that rising housing prices and living costs per se cannot explain China?s high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can help translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations using Chinese data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-048

Journal Article
Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?

China did not succumb to the Asian crisis of 1997-99, despite two apparent sources of vulnerability: a weak financial system and increased export competition from the Asian crisis economies. This article argues that both sources of vulnerability were more apparent than real. China's experience (especially its use of capital controls) does not offer a blueprint for other countries, because other countries would not want to replicate China's inefficient, non-market-oriented financial system.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 25 , Issue Q IV

Working Paper
Fintech, Cryptocurrencies, and CBDC: Financial Structural Transformation in China”

Fintech and decentralized finance have penetrated all areas of the financial system and have improved financial inclusion in the last decade. In this paper, we review the recent literature on fintech, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). There are important implications from the rise of fintech and the introduction of stablecoins and CBDCs in recent years. We provide an overview of China’s experience in fintech, focusing on payments, digital banking, fintech lending, and the recent progress on its CBDC pilots (e-CNY). We also discuss important ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-12

Journal Article
Prospects for China's corporate bond market

This Economic Letter explores whether China's corporate bond market is likely to develop as an alternative to bank financing for private Chinese firms.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
China: a visitor's report

FRBSF Economic Letter

Patent data appendix for quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China

Despite the recent rapid development and greater openness of China?s economy, FDI flows between China and technologically advanced countries are relatively small in both directions. We assess global capital flows in light of China?s quid pro quo policy of exchanging market access for transfers of technology capital?accumulated know-how such as research and development (R&D) that can be used in multiple production locations. We first provide empirical evidence of this policy and then incorporate it into a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model. This extension leads to a significantly ...
Staff Report , Paper 488



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