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Working Paper
Reserves and Risk: Evidence from China

We consider if the Chinese accumulation of reserves is associated with unintended consequences in the form of increased private sector risk taking. Using sovereign credit default swap spreads and stock index prices as indicators of risk taking, we provide evidence to suggest that as reserve holdings increase, so does the willingness of the private sector to take on more risk. This is an important finding that adds credence to the suggestion that insurance through costly reserves, to be used in the event of a crisis, may lead to private sector actions that in and of themselves make it more ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 387

Working Paper
Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia.

We assess links between China and the rest of emerging Asia. Some commentators have argued that China?s apparent devaluation in 1994 may have contributed to the Asian financial crisis. We argue that the devaluation was not economically important: The more-relevant exchange rate was a floating rate that was not devalued, and high Chinese inflation has led to a very sharp real appreciation of the currency. Although in principle, export competition with China could nevertheless have placed pressure on other Asian exporters, we argue that the striking feature of the data is the common movement ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 604

Discussion Paper
Could Rising Household Debt Undercut China’s Economy?

Although there has been a notable deceleration in the pace of credit growth recently, the run-up in debt in China has been eye-popping, accounting for more than 60 percent of all new credit created globally over the past ten years. Rising nonfinancial sector debt was driven initially by an increase in corporate borrowing, which surged in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis. The most recent leg of China’s credit boom has been due to an important shift toward household lending. To better understand the rise in household debt in China and its implications for financial stability ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190213

Journal Article
The Impact of Foreign Slowdown on the U.S. Economy: An Open Economy DSGE Perspective

Over the course of 2018, economic activity in major advanced foreign economies and emerging markets—including the Euro area and China—decelerated noticeably. In parallel, foreign growth projections for 2019 and 2020 were revised down, signaling potentially large headwinds for the U.S economy over the medium term. In this article, we use a multi-country simulation model to quantify economic spillovers to the United States from a slowdown originating in the Euro area. Next, we compare these results with spillovers from a slowdown originating in China. We find that spillovers to the U.S. ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 4 , Pages 98-111

Journal Article
Evolution of U.S. trade with China

Despite the improvements in the overall U.S. trade balance in the latter half of the 1980s, the U.S. trade deficit with China has widened significantly. This article investigates the factors underlying this growing deficit and analyzes how growth in imports from China has affected the pattern of U.S. imports from other Asian economies, notably Hong Kong.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Win , Pages 47-54

U.S. capital flows to China

Research Paper , Paper 8705

Conference Paper
Monetary policy and inflation in China


Chinese growth: a source of U.S. export opportunities

Fiscal Affairs & Government Operations Committee, The Council of State Governments' Southern Legislative Conference, Louisville, Ky., July 31, 2006
Speech , Paper 102

Journal Article
Why \\"fixing\\" China's currency is no quick fix

Even if China does revalue its currency, jobs aren?t likely to come flooding back to the United States. Much of what China exports to the U.S. originates in other Asian countries.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr , Pages 4-5

Discussion Paper
Is Chinese Growth Overstated?

For analysts of the Chinese economy, questions about the accuracy of the country’s official GDP data are a frequent source of angst, leading many to seek guidance from alternative indicators. These nonofficial gauges often suggest Beijing’s growth figures are exaggerated, but that conclusion is not supported by our analysis, which draws upon satellite measurements of the intensity of China’s nighttime light emissions—a good proxy for GDP growth that is presumably not subject to whatever measurement errors may affect the country’s official economic statistics.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170419



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