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Discussion Paper
Would a Stronger Renminbi Narrow the U.S.-China Trade Imbalance?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2011-07-13)
The United States buys much more from China than it sells to China—an imbalance that accounts for almost half of our overall merchandise trade deficit. China’s policy of keeping its exchange rate low is often cited as a key driver of that country’s large overall trade surplus and of its bilateral surplus with the United States. The argument is that a stronger renminbi (the official currency of China) would help reduce that country’s trade imbalance with the United States by lowering the prices of U.S. goods relative to those made in China. In this post, we examine the thinking behind ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110713

Discussion Paper
Consumer Goods from China Are Getting More Expensive
Choi, Mark; Amiti, Mary (2011-09-07)
We find that, in a sharp reversal of earlier trends, U.S. import prices for consumer goods shipped from China have been rising rapidly in recent quarters—by 7 percent between 2010:Q2 and 2011:Q1. In this post, we track U.S. import price movements in Chinese goods in different product categories by creating an import index that uses highly disaggregated data. We also consider the likely causes of the recent rise in prices for consumer goods. If these price hikes persist, they could have important consequences for U.S. businesses and consumers because China is the largest single supplier of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110907

Discussion Paper
China’s Impact on U.S. Inflation
Amiti, Mary; Choi, Mark (2013-01-14)
U.S. import prices of consumer goods shipped from China have been moderating in recent quarters, following an upward surge of 11 percent between mid-2010 and the end of 2011. These price changes have far-reaching consequences for U.S. businesses and consumers, because China is the largest single supplier of imports to the United States, accounting for more than 20 percent of nonoil imports and more than 30 percent of consumer goods. In this post, we track U.S. import price movements in different product categories from China by constructing import price indexes that use highly disaggregated ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130114

Discussion Paper
The Turnaround in Private and Public Financial Outflows from China
Klitgaard, Thomas; Wheeler, Harry (2016-05-09)
China lends to the rest of the world because it saves much more than it needs to fund its high level of physical investment spending. For years, the public sector accounted for this lending through the Chinese central bank?s purchase of foreign assets, but this changed in 2015. The country still had substantial net financial outflows, but unlike in previous years, more private money was pouring out of China than was flowing in. This shift in private sector behavior forced the central bank to sell foreign assets so that the sum of net private and public outflows would equal the saving surplus ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160509

Working Paper
The New England-China relationship in 2005
Browne, Lynn E. (2005)
This essay provides an overview of current trade patterns between New England and China. It was prepared for a symposium sponsored by The Boston Athenaeum comparing New England?s present-day trade with China to the region?s prominence in the U.S.-China trade of the 19th century. The essay concludes that a special trade relationship between New England and China does not exist at the present time. Although New England?s exports to China are growing rapidly, they are not growing markedly faster than exports from the rest of the country, and China does not account for an unusually large fraction ...
New England Public Policy Center Working Paper , Paper 05-1

Report
How did China’s WTO entry benefit U.S. prices?
Romalis, John; Dai, Mi; Feenstra, Robert C.; Amiti, Mary (2017-06-01)
We analyze the effects of China?s rapid export expansion following World Trade Organization (WTO) entry on U.S. prices, exploiting cross-industry variation in trade liberalization. Lower input tariffs boosted Chinese firms? productivity, lowered costs, and, in conjunction with reduced U.S. tariff uncertainty, expanded export participation. We find that China?s WTO entry significantly reduced variety-adjusted U.S. manufacturing price indexes between 2000 and 2006. For the Chinese components of these indexes, one-third of the beneficial impact comes from Chinese exporters lowering their prices, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 817

Discussion Paper
China’s Continuing Credit Boom
Etra, Alex; Rosenblum, Aaron; Dawson, Jeffrey B. (2017-02-27)
Debt in China has increased dramatically in recent years, accounting for roughly one-half of all new credit created globally since 2005. The country?s share of total global credit is nearly 25 percent, up from 5 percent ten years ago. By some measures (as documented below), China?s credit boom has reached the point where countries typically encounter financial stress, which could spill over to international markets given the size of the Chinese economy. To better understand the associated risks, it is important to examine the drivers of China?s expansion in credit, the increasing complexity ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170227

Discussion Paper
Is Chinese Growth Overstated?
Camacho, Maximo; Clark, Hunter L.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. (2017-04-19)
For analysts of the Chinese economy, questions about the accuracy of the country?s official GDP data are a frequent source of angst, leading many to seek guidance from alternative indicators. These nonofficial gauges often suggest Beijing?s growth figures are exaggerated, but that conclusion is not supported by our analysis, which draws upon satellite measurements of the intensity of China?s nighttime light emissions?a good proxy for GDP growth that is presumably not subject to whatever measurement errors may affect the country?s official economic statistics.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170419

Discussion Paper
Do Import Tariffs Help Reduce Trade Deficits?
Feenstra, Robert C.; Dai, Mi; Amiti, Mary; Romalis, John (2018-08-13)
Import tariffs are on the rise in the UnitedStates, with a long list of new tariffs imposed in the last few months?25percent on steel imports, 10percent on aluminum, and 25percent on $50billion of goods from China?and possibly more to come. One of the objectives of these new tariffs is to reduce the U.S.trade deficit, which stood at $568.4 billion in 2017 (2.9percent of GDP). The fact that the United States imports far more than it exports is viewed by some as unfair, so the idea is to try to reduce the amount that the nation imports from the rest of the world. While more costly imports are ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180813

Discussion Paper
Will Demographic Headwinds Hobble China's Economy?
Clark, Hunter L.; Klitgaard, Thomas (2018-08-15)
China's population is only growing at a 0.5 percent annual rate, its working-age cohort (ages 15 to 64) is shrinking, and the share of the population that is 65 and over is rising rapidly. Together, these trends will act as a significant restraint on the country?s economic growth. Nonetheless, there are reasons to conclude that growth will remain relatively strong going forward, most notably because the ongoing shift from rural to urban jobs will continue to boost labor productivity for some time to come.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180815

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