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The Primary Dealer Credit Facility
The Federal Reserve established a new Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) in March 2020, to allow primary dealers to support smooth market functioning and facilitate the availability of credit to businesses and households, in the face of deteriorating conditions in the market for triparty repo financing due to the coronavirus pandemic. A similar facility had been established in March 2008 to help restore the orderly functioning of the market, following the near-bankruptcy of Bear Stearns, and to prevent the spillover of distress to other financial firms. This article provides an overview of ...
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest after COVID-19
We modify the Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams models of the natural rate of interest to account for time-varying volatility and a persistent COVID supply shock during the pandemic. Resulting estimates of the natural rate of interest in the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area at the end of 2022 are close to their respective levels estimated directly before the pandemic; that is, we do not find evidence that the era of historically low estimated natural rates of interest has ended. In contrast, estimates of the natural rate of output have declined relative to those projected ...
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: The China Factor
In a January 2022 post, we first presented the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), a parsimonious global measure designed to capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators. In this post, we review GSCPI readings through December 2022, and then briefly discuss the drivers of recent moves in the index. While supply chain disruptions have significantly diminished over the course of 2022, the reversion of the index toward a normal historical range has paused over the past three months. Our analysis attributes the recent pause largely to the pandemic in China amid an easing ...
Motivating Banks to Lend? Credit Spillover Effects of the Main Street Lending Program
We study the effects of the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—an emergency lending program aimed at supporting the flow of credit to small and mid-sized firms during the COVID-19 crisis on bank lending to businesses. Using instrumental variables for identification and multiple loan-level and survey data sources, we document that the MSLP increased banks' willingness to lend more generally outside the program to both large and small firms. Following the introduction of the program, participating banks were more likely to renew maturing loans and to originate new loans, as well as less ...
Understanding Migration Trends to Prepare for the Post-Pandemic Future
As the country has emerged from the pandemic, the places where people have traditionally lived and spent their money have shifted. Considering how our region has fared relative to the rest of the nation, this analysis reveals the region’s strengths and weaknesses and points to seven key insights that should guide policy decisions as we prepare for the post-pandemic years.
Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive change in the movement of people at both the neighborhood and the regional levels in the United States. New migration estimates will enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.
Did Substance Abuse during the Pandemic Reduce Labor Force Participation?
The labor force participation rates of prime-age US workers dropped in March 2020—the start of the COVID-19 pandemic—and have still not fully recovered. At the same time, deaths from substance abuse were elevated during the pandemic relative to trend, indicating the number of people abusing substances may have increased, and those who abuse opioids and crystal methamphetamine have lower labor force participation rates than those who don’t abuse these substances. Could increased substance abuse during the pandemic be a factor contributing to the fall in labor force participation? ...
Urban and Regional Migration Estimates, Second Quarter 2023 Update
This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in "Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?" with data for 2023 Q2 for all series. Migration estimates will enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.