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Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
This paper develops a semi-structural model to jointly estimate “stars” — long-run levels of output (its growth rate), the unemployment rate, the real interest rate, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. It features links between survey expectations and stars, time-variation in macroeconomic relationships, and stochastic volatility. Survey data help discipline stars’ estimates and have been crucial in estimating a high-dimensional model since the pandemic. The model has desirable real-time properties, competitive forecasting performance, and superior fit to the ...
Journal Article
The Primary Dealer Credit Facility
The Federal Reserve established a new Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) in March 2020, to allow primary dealers to support smooth market functioning and facilitate the availability of credit to businesses and households, in the face of deteriorating conditions in the market for triparty repo financing due to the coronavirus pandemic. A similar facility had been established in March 2008 to help restore the orderly functioning of the market, following the near-bankruptcy of Bear Stearns, and to prevent the spillover of distress to other financial firms. This article provides an overview of ...
Report
Financial Education and Household Financial Decisions During the Pandemic
We examine the impact of financial education on credit decisions during COVID-19. The pandemic presented economic challenges, but policy responses provided opportunities for savvy borrowers. Using variation in state-mandated financial education during high school, we find that mandated borrowers reduced revolving credit card balances by larger amounts after stimulus checks were distributed and were more likely to buy homes and refinance mortgages during times of low interest rates. Paused student loan borrowers bound by mandates originated more auto loans and mortgages while reducing growth ...
Journal Article
Wage Growth, Labor Market Tightness, and Inflation: A Service Sector Analysis
This Economic Commentary explores the connections among labor market tightness, wage inflation, and price inflation at the service sector level. Across most service sectors, sector-specific labor market tightness and nominal wage growth have been above prepandemic averages since 2022. The data suggest that a stronger positive relationship between labor market tightness and wage growth has emerged in the aftermath of the pandemic. The relationship between sector-specific wage growth and inflation is more varied. In the education and health services sector, higher wage growth is associated with ...
Discussion Paper
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: The China Factor
In a January 2022 post, we first presented the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), a parsimonious global measure designed to capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators. In this post, we review GSCPI readings through December 2022, and then briefly discuss the drivers of recent moves in the index. While supply chain disruptions have significantly diminished over the course of 2022, the reversion of the index toward a normal historical range has paused over the past three months. Our analysis attributes the recent pause largely to the pandemic in China amid an easing ...
The Demographics of Urban Migrants Since the Pandemic
The postpandemic movement of people out of urban neighborhoods is speeding up changes in the age, credit risk, income, home ownership, and ethnic mix of these neighborhoods. Migration has been consistent with patterns in place before the pandemic, but at higher levels.
Journal Article
Revenge Spending in the Wake of the Pandemic
Nebraskans are spending more on experiences after the pandemic, according to recent research from the Kansas City Fed.
Journal Article
Why Cash Transfers Are Good Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an exceptionally large and negative impact on economic activity around the world. We show that cash transfers can be a useful policy tool during the pandemic. Cash transfers mitigate consumption inequality induced by the pandemic and provide incentives to individuals who are most negatively affected by lockdown policies to adhere to them.
Urban and Regional Migration Estimates
This District Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in “Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?” with data for 2024:Q1 for all series. The first series measures net migration of people to and from the urban neighborhoods of major metro areas. The second series covers all neighborhoods but breaks down net migration to other regions by four region types: (1) high-cost metros, (2) affordable, large metros, (3) midsized metros, and (4) small metros and rural areas. The metro area definitions used here are for combined statistical areas, which ...
Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive change in the movement of people at both the neighborhood and the regional levels in the United States. New migration estimates will enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.