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Working Paper
Disparities and Mitigation Behavior during COVID-19
Wozniak, Abigail (2020-05-13)
This paper uses a unique large-scale survey administered in April 2020 to assess disparities on several dimensions of wellbeing under rising COVID-19 infections and mitigation restrictions in the US. The survey includes three modules designed to assess different dimensions of well-being in parallel: physical health, mental and social health, and economic and financial security. The survey is unique among early COVID-19 data efforts in that provides insight on diverse dimensions of wellbeing and for subnational geographies. I find dramatic declines in wellbeing from pre-COVID baseline measures ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 32

Discussion Paper
State Revenues Hit Hard by COVID-19
Mengedoth, Joseph; Taylor, Sam Louis (2020-05-14)
The measures taken to slow the spread of COVID-19 have not only led to a sharp decline in employment and an unprecedented rise in unemployment but have negatively impacted state and local governments that depend on income and sales taxes as primary sources of revenue.
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
Did State Reopenings Increase Consumer Spending?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Topa, Giorgio; Melcangi, Davide; Heise, Sebastian; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2020-09-18)
The spread of COVID-19 in the United States has had a profound impact on economic activity. Beginning in March, most states imposed severe restrictions on households and businesses to slow the spread of the virus. This was followed by a gradual loosening of restrictions (“reopening”) starting in April. As the virus has re-emerged, a number of states have taken steps to reverse the reopening of their economies. For example, Texas and Florida closed bars again in June, and Arizona additionally paused operations of gyms and movie theatres. Taken together, these measures raise the question of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200918b

Discussion Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Fifth District Economy
Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Crouse, Jacob (2020-04-06)
As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the country, Americans are taking measures to distance themselves from their communities, both voluntarily and by mandate. What measures have Fifth District jurisdictions taken and what might this mean for the Fifth District economy?
Regional Matters

Journal Article
Lockdown Responses to COVID-19
Gutkowski, Violeta A. (2021-04-15)
This article describes the relationship between countries' lockdown responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and those countries' political rights and civil liberties, macroeconomic variables, and vulnerability to the virus. Political rights and civil liberties cannot explain the differences in lockdown timing across countries. Countries with high contagion exposure due to weak water sanitation and weak health systems locked down their economies as fast as possible to reduce contagion. However, countries more vulnerable to COVID-19 due to large fractions of elderly and smokers in the population did ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 2 , Pages 127-151

Working Paper
Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic
Mercan, Yusuf; Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Karahan, Fatih (2020-08-07)
We study the effects and welfare implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fall out from containment policies during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-024

Report
Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19
Kopecky, Karen A.; Zha, Tao; Atkeson, Andrew (2021-02-04)
We show that a simple model of COVID-19 that incorporates feedback from disease prevalence to disease transmission through an endogenous response of human behavior does a remarkable job fitting the main features of the data on the growth rates of daily deaths observed across a large number countries and states of the United States from March to November of 2020. This finding, however, suggests a new empirical puzzle. Using an accounting procedure akin to that used for Business Cycle Accounting as in Chari et al. (2007), we show that when the parameters of the behavioral response of ...
Staff Report , Paper 618

Discussion Paper
Finally, Some Signs of Improvement in the Regional Economy
Deitz, Richard; Bram, Jason; Abel, Jaison R.; Hyman, Benjamin (2020-06-16)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June business surveys show some signs of improvement in the regional economy. Following two months of unprecedented decline due to the coronavirus pandemic, indicators of business activity point to a slower pace of contraction in the service sector and signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Even more encouraging, as the regional economy has begun to reopen, many businesses have started to recall workers who were laid off or put on furlough since the start of the pandemic. Some have even hired new workers. Moreover, businesses expect to recall ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200616b

Briefing
The Challenge of Declining K–12 Enrollment in Northern New England
Sullivan, Riley (2020-09-15)
COVID-related public health concerns and declining tax revenues raised or continue to raise important questions throughout the country about when and how to restart schools and how to fund them in the near term. For communities across northern New England, there are also fundamental, longer-term concerns over declines in the student population that will still confront districts well beyond the current academic year. In every county in New Hampshire, Maine, andVermont, the number of young residents has declined over the last two decades. Northern New England is not alone in facing this ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2020-04

Working Paper
How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Willen, Paul S.; Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas; Hizmo, Aurel; Lambie-Hanson, Lauren (2021-05-01)
We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market experienced a historic boom in 2020, we show there was also a large and sustained increase in intermediation markups that limited the pass-through of low rates to borrowers. Markups typically rise during periods of peak demand, but this historical relationship explains only part of the large increase during the pandemic. We present evidence that pandemic-related labor market frictions and operational bottlenecks contributed to unusually inelastic credit supply, and that ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-4

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