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Speech
The Federal Reserve’s Pandemic Response
Held, Michael (2020-06-25)
Remarks at Union of Arab Banks Webinar: Global Banking in Light of COVID-19 and Geopolitical Development (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Discussion Paper
Market Failures and Official Sector Interventions
Kovner, Anna; Martin, Antoine (2020-09-23)
In the United States and other free market economies, the official sector typically has minimal involvement in market activities absent a clear rationale to justify intervention, such as a market failure. In this post, we consider arguments for official sector intervention, focusing on the market failure arising from externalities related to business closures. These externalities are likely to be particularly high for closures arising from pandemic-related economic disruptions. We discuss how the official sector, including institutions such as Congress and the Treasury, can increase social ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200923

Discussion Paper
How Did State Reopenings Affect Small Businesses?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Topa, Giorgio; Melcangi, Davide; Heise, Sebastian; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2020-09-21)
In our previous post, we looked at the effects that the reopening of state economies across the United States has had on consumer spending. We found a significant effect of reopening, especially regarding spending in restaurants and bars as well as in the healthcare sector. In this companion post, we focus specifically on small businesses, using two different sources of high-frequency data, and we employ a methodology similar to that of our previous post to study the effects of reopening on small business activity along various dimensions. Our results indicate that, much like for consumer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200921

Pandemic Economic Lifeline: Taxes on Consumption, Labor that Fund Stay-at-Home Subsidies
Hur, Sewon (2021-01-12)
Stay-at-home subsidies funded by taxes on consumption and labor—activities that contribute to viral transmission—can simultaneously reduce deaths and increase output.
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
Payments and the Pandemic
Mester, Loretta J. (2020-09-23)
It is a great pleasure being with you today as part of the 20th Anniversary Chicago Payments Symposium. Over the last two decades, this symposium has established itself as a valuable forum at which those interested in the payments system can gather to learn and share ideas. In recent years, the symposium has fostered important conversations between industry practitioners and policymakers. Those conversations have helped inform the Federal Reserve System’s initiative to improve and modernize the U.S. payments system. That work is ongoing and has reached important milestones this year, ...
Speech

Working Paper
A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Raissi, Mehdi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Rebucci, Alessandro (2020-10-02)
This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TG-VAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and in the case of several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long-term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 402

Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic
Fang, Lei; Xie, Zoe; Nie, Jun (2020-07-31)
The CARES Act implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis dramatically increases the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, triggering concerns about its substantial impact on unemployment. This paper combines a labor market search-matching model with the SIR-type infection dynamics to study the effects of CARES UI on both unemployment and infection. More generous UI policies create work disincentives and lead to higher unemployment, but they also reduce infection and save lives. Economic shutdown policies further amplify these effects of UI policies. Quantitatively, the CARES ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-13

Journal Article
How COVID-19 Has Affected the Municipal Bond Market
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2020-10-22)
Between increased spending related to COVID-19, a delayed tax-filing deadline and lack of liquidity, March was a challenging month for the municipal bond market.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 4

Working Paper
Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic
Mercan, Yusuf; Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Karahan, Fatih (2020-08-07)
We study the effects and welfare implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fall out from containment policies during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-024

Entry, Exit of Firms Amplify the Business Cycle
Bernstein, Joshua; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W. (2020-07-14)
When new businesses are created, they generate new jobs. When unprofitable businesses close, employees lose their jobs. Given the connection between firm entry and exit and changes in employment, it is natural to ask how this entry and exit affects the broader business cycle.
Dallas Fed Economics

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