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Insights from Dallas Fed Surveys: Uneven Economic Recovery Likely in Texas

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) show that while recovery continued in some sectors in July, it faltered in others as new COVID-19 cases surged across the state.
Dallas Fed Economics

An Update on the Economy and the Federal Reserve’s Policy Response; 05.12.20 Loretta J. Mester: POWER Series, CFA Society Chicago, Chicago, IL (via videoconference)

The coronavirus pandemic is a global public health crisis that has inflicted pain and hardship on people all over the world. In the interests of public health, the country has taken aggressive social distancing measures to limit the spread of the virus, resulting in a shutdown of much of the economy. While the shutdown has yielded public health benefits, its effects on the economy have been swift and severe. Unprecedented times require unprecedented actions. Both the federal government and the Federal Reserve took action quickly. These relief efforts can be viewed as building a bridge to get ...

Entry, Exit of Firms Amplify the Business Cycle

When new businesses are created, they generate new jobs. When unprofitable businesses close, employees lose their jobs. Given the connection between firm entry and exit and changes in employment, it is natural to ask how this entry and exit affects the broader business cycle.
Dallas Fed Economics

Real-Time Population Survey Suggests U.S. Job Losses Slowed in Early May

Survey results for the week of May 10 suggest further declines in employment and an increase in unemployment relative to the week of April 26 – May 2, though both changes are within the survey’s margin of error.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic

The CARES Act implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis dramatically increased the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, triggering concerns about substantial effects on unemployment. This paper combines a labor market search-matching model with the SIR-type infection dynamics to study the effects of the CARES Act UI on both unemployment and infection. More generous UI policies create work disincentives and lead to higher unemployment but also reduce infection and save lives. Economic shutdown policies further amplify these effects of UI policies. Quantitatively, the CARES ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-07

Discussion Paper
Did State Reopenings Increase Consumer Spending?

The spread of COVID-19 in the United States has had a profound impact on economic activity. Beginning in March, most states imposed severe restrictions on households and businesses to slow the spread of the virus. This was followed by a gradual loosening of restrictions (“reopening”) starting in April. As the virus has re-emerged, a number of states have taken steps to reverse the reopening of their economies. For example, Texas and Florida closed bars again in June, and Arizona additionally paused operations of gyms and movie theatres. Taken together, these measures raise the question of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200918b

Panel Remarks: Supervisory and Regulatory Action to Support the Economy and Protect Consumers

Panel Remarks at The Fed and Main Street during the Coronavirus Pandemic, WebEx event, April 23, 2020.

Working Paper
Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis

We study liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of the unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve. We find that, at the height of the crisis, liquidity conditions deteriorated substantially, as dealers appeared unwilling to absorb corporate debt onto their balance sheets. In particular, we document that the cost of risky-principal trades increased by a factor of five, forcing traders to shift to slower, agency trades. The announcements of the Federal Reserve’s interventions coincided with substantial improvements in trading ...
Working Papers , Paper WP 20-43

An Update on the Economy and the Main Street Lending Program

Today I would like to speak with you about the pandemic, its effects on the economy, the implications for Federal Reserve policymaking, and some of the steps that the Fed is taking to address the crisis and mitigate its financial impact on American households and businesses.

How Many Employees Are Prepared to Work from Home?

Sorting workers by occupation and income helps shed light on who is more likely to be able to work remotely.
On the Economy



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