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What Might Inflation Look Like Next Year?

In our baseline scenario, core inflation is 2.6 percent in 2022. If this occurs, core inflation will have averaged 2.4 percent over the last five years, moderately above the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
Dallas Fed Economics

Higher Education: The Importance and Urgency of Reform

Patrick T. Harker, Philadelphia Fed president and CEO, urged federal and state governments — and American society — to recommit to public postsecondary education. He addressed a virtual audience at a symposium on the financial viability of higher education institutions hosted by the Philadelphia Fed.

COVID Transfers Dampening Employment Growth, but Not Necessarily a Bad Thing

Overall employment levels have remained below their pre-pandemic level and are growing only slowly despite rising wages and vacancies. In this Economic Brief, we examine whether historically high government support may have empowered workers to pull back from labor markets. While that support presents a clear benefit to recipients, a simple calculation based on recent estimates indicates that transfers of close to $2 trillion to households approved over the course of 2020 and 2021 implies a reduction of 0.58 percentage points in the employment-to-population ratio.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 39

Journal Article
Labor, Race, and COVID-19

The pandemic altered long-standing racial differences in how workers experience the labor market
Economic Insights , Volume 8 , Issue 1 , Pages 2-10

Supply-Chain Woes, Labor Shortages and COVID-19 Slow Resilient Texas Economy

Regional economic growth has slowed, though it remains robust by historical standards. While demand has improved from year-ago levels, supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages have limited output growth and pushed up wages and prices.
Dallas Fed Economics

U.S. Labor Market Slack Created by COVID-19 Pandemic Has Been Absorbed

The weaker-than-expected August labor market report should not obscure the labor market’s ongoing and significant progress while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Banking Trends Regulatory Changes and Community Banks During COVID

Small banks that received capital relief appear to have been more resilient.
Banking Trends

Economic Outlook: Cautious Optimism A Virtual Conversation with Philadelphia Federal Reserve

In remarks to the Philadelphia Chapter of the Risk Management Association, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker shared his insights about the economy and what he sees as the overall impact of the Delta variant, supply chain constraints, unemployment, and the Fed’s asset purchases.

Labor Shortages, Supply Chain Woes Slow Texas Recovery

The Texas economy is on the path to a solid recovery, although the pace of growth has eased since March, recent data suggest.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
The Pandemic Mortgage Boom

We learn a lot about the mortgage market by understanding why it defied expectations during the pandemic
Economic Insights , Volume 7 , Issue 3 , Pages 18-24


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