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Keywords:Business forecasting 

Working Paper
Are taste and technology parameters stable? a test of \\"deep\\" parameter stability in real business cycle models of the U.S. economy

Lucas (1976) criticized Keynesian models because of parametric instability. For many economists, the "Lucas critique" provided a reason to replace the Keynesian approach with equilibrium models of the business cycle. One example of the equilibrium approach is the Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. However, RBC models have not been subjected to the same scrutiny of tests of parameter instability. We present a prototypical RBC model and subject it to structural change tests. Our results document evidence of extensive parameter instability. Thus, the "Lucas critique" is applicable and we ...
Working Papers , Paper 01-05

Journal Article
No relief in sight for the U.S. economy

For at least the next two years, the U.S. economy will grow more slowly than it has on average since World War II. This is the forecast of a Bayesian vector autoregression model developed and used by researchers at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank. The model's previous forecast?of a very weak start to the 1991?92 recovery?was remarkably accurate. Both forecasts are supported by evidence on long-term problems among consumers, in the commercial real estate industry, and at all levels of government. These problems will most likely constrain economic growth for years, although short spurts of ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Fall , Pages 13-20

Newsletter
1992 outlook: a question of confidence

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Feb

Report
The term structure of announcement effects

We analyze high-frequency responses of U.S. Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum to macroeconomic announcements. We find that surprises in the announcements evoke the sharpest reactions from the intermediate maturities, thus forming striking hump-shaped curves of announcement effects. We then fit an affine-yield model to the yield changes using the announcement surprises as GMM instruments. The model estimates imply that the announcements elicit larger shocks to an expected future target interest rate than to the current short-term interest rate and that different types of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 76

Journal Article
1991 outlook: mild recession, mild recovery

A summary of the January 18, 1991 Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, noting the panelists' forecasts for the economy in the wake of uncertainties surrounding the Persian Gulf War.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Overview. The Southeast in 1986

Economic Review , Issue Feb , Pages 4-12

Journal Article
Economic policy issues for 1988 and beyond

A discussion of the uncertainty surrounding economic policy issues in 1988, with emphasis on the need for policymakers to focus on long-term objectives.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Journal Article
The Beige Book: Timely information on the regional economy

In making monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) relies in part on the Beige Book, a report on regional economic conditions released publicly about two weeks before each FOMC meeting. The Beige Book summarizes economic conditions in each of the twelve Federal Reserve districts and provides an overview of national conditions based on the regional reports. ; The Reserve Banks gather information for their regional summaries from a variety of sources, including telephone and written surveys, local news reports, and reports on current and expected economic conditions from the ...
Economic Review , Volume 86 , Issue Q3 , Pages 19-29

Journal Article
The U.S. economy in 1987 and 1988

Economic Review , Volume 72 , Issue Dec , Pages 3-15

Journal Article
Policies for long-run economic growth: a summary of the Bank's 1992 symposium

Economic Review , Volume 77 , Issue Q IV , Pages 31-43

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