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Keywords:Business cycles 

Journal Article
Productivity growth and the American business cycle

Business Review , Issue Sep , Pages 13-22

Working Paper
Tests of the relation between money and output in the real business cycle model

Working Papers , Paper 87-14

Working Paper
Business cycle research: methods and problems

Working Papers , Paper 590

Working Paper
Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets

Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The model also accounts for the dynamics of other key macroeconomic variables in ...
Working Paper , Paper 09-01

Working Paper
North-South financial integration and business cycles

This paper examines the business cycle implications of increased North-South trade in financial assets. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model of North-South trade and compare the model's predictions under two asset market assumptions: a restricted setting in which asset trade is limited to a non-contingent one-period bond market; and a highly integrated setting in which agents have access to a complete contingent-claims market. Simulations of the North-South model suggest that increased North-South trade in asset markets (a) lowers Southern consumption and output volatility, and ...
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper WP-96-10

Working Paper
Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 95-17

Journal Article
How well are the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District prepared for the next recession?

Economic downturns often force state policymakers to enact sizable tax increases or spending cuts to close budget shortfalls. In this paper the authors make use of a Markov-switching regression model to empirically describe the expansions and contractions in the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District. They use the estimated parameters from the switching regressions to form probability distributions of the revenue shortfalls states are likely to encounter in future slowdowns. This allows them to estimate the probability that each state's projected fiscal-year-end balances will be ...
Regional Economic Development , Issue Nov , Pages 75-87

Theory ahead of business cycle measurement

Recent developments in business cycle theory are reviewed. The principal finding is that the growth model, which was developed to account for the secular patterns in important economic aggregates, displays the business cycle phenomena once it incorporates the observed randomness in the rate of technological advance. The amplitudes and serial correlation properties of fluctuations in output and employment that the growth model predicts match those historically experienced in the United States. Further, the model continues to display the growth facts it was developed to explain.
Staff Report , Paper 102

Liquidity and leverage

In a financial system in which balance sheets are continuously marked to market, asset price changes appear immediately as changes in net worth, prompting financial intermediaries to adjust the size of their balance sheets. We present evidence that marked-to-market leverage is strongly procyclical and argue that such behavior has aggregate consequences. Changes in dealer repurchase agreements (repos) -the primary margin of adjustment for the aggregate balance sheets of intermediaries - forecast changes in financial market risk as measured by the innovations in the Chicago Board Options ...
Staff Reports , Paper 328

Working Paper
Market exposure and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle

First Draft: November 1, 2011 We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level volatility over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand risk at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the business cycle properties of firm-level volatility. Using a panel of U.S. firms (Compustat), we empirically document the countercyclical nature of firm-level volatility. We then match this panel to Compustat?s Segment data and the U.S. Census?s Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-12



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