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Keywords:Business cycles 

Conference Paper
Monetary and financial interaction in the business cycle


Working Paper
Is the political business cycle for real?

This paper's macroeconomic model combines features from both real and political business cycle models. It augments a standard real business cycle tax model by allowing for varying levels of government partisanship and competence in order to replicate two important empirical regularities: First, that on average the economy expands early under Democratic presidents and contracts early under Republican presidents. Second, that presidents whose parties successfully retain the presidency have stronger-than-average growth in the second half of their terms. The model generates both of these features ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0016

Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles

We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying factor loadings and stochastic volatility in both the latent factors and idiosyncratic components. We employ this new measurement tool to study the evolution of international business cycles in the post-Bretton Woods period, using a panel of output growth rates for nineteen countries. We find 1) statistical evidence of a decline in volatility for most countries, with the timing, magnitude, and source (international or domestic) of the decline differing across countries; 2) some evidence of a decline in business cycle synchronization for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 326

Journal Article
Does the Fed cause Christmas?

A discussion of the relationship between money and output, with emphasis on the possibility that changes in output precede changes in money.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan

Journal Article
The self-employment duration of younger men over the business cycle

Spells of self-employment for younger men are typically of short duration with slightly more than half lasting two years or less. This article examines factors that lead to longer durations, focusing on the role of cyclical factors in distinguishing entrepreneurs from discouraged wage workers.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 30 , Issue Q III , Pages 14-27

Working Paper
A spectral analysis of the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle

Dynamic general equilibrium models predict high cross-country consumption correlations, whereas the data show that output correlations tend to be higher. Spectral decomposition reveals that this ranking varies across frequency bands, with consumption correlations often exceeding output correlations at higher frequencies.
Working Papers , Paper 2003-023

Journal Article
Research spotlight: How forecasts can influence the present

Related link(s):
Econ Focus , Volume 13 , Issue Fall , Pages 9

Working Paper
By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle

This paper explores the possibility that economic fluctuations may be largely demand-driven. It is shown that the stylized open-economy business cycle regularities documented by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) and Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1992) can be explained by demand shocks alone even in a standard general equilibrium model. Frictions such as market incompleteness, increasing returns to scale, and sticky prices do not appear to be the preconditions for resolving these long-standing puzzles.
Working Papers , Paper 2005-043

Working Paper
A critique of structural VARs using real business cycle theory

The main substantive finding of the recent structural vector autoregression literature with a differenced specification of hours (DSVAR) is that technology shocks lead to a fall in hours. Researchers have used these results to argue that business cycle models in which technology shocks lead to a rise in hours should be discarded. We evaluate the DSVAR approach by asking, is the specification derived from this approach misspecified when the data are generated by the very model the literature is trying to discard? We find that it is misspecified. Moreover, this misspecification is so great that ...
Working Papers , Paper 631

Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates

We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international rate and a country risk component. Country risk is affected by fundamental shocks but, through the presence of working capital, also amplifies the effects of those shocks. The model generates business cycles consistent with Argentine data. ...
Staff Report , Paper 335



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