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Keywords:Business cycles 

Journal Article
Characterizing the 2014–16 Slowdown in Investment

Investment growth slowed from 2014 to 2016, a period when the overall economy was expanding. Using a statistical model, the author found a clear evidence that investment growth fluctuates between high and low growth regimes that usually correspond to expansions and recessions. However, during 2014?16, the investment sector experienced an isolated recession within an overall expansion, which is unusual by historical standards.
Macro Bulletin

Report
Returns on capital assets and variations in economic growth and volatility: a model of Bayesian learning

Research Paper , Paper 9128

Speech
Asset bubbles and the implications for central bank policy

Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 21

Journal Article
From cycles to shocks: progress in business-cycle theory

Boom leads to recession, recession to boom, and the economy is caught in a self-sustaining cycle. Or is it? More recent economic theory states that cyclical fluctuations in the economy are caused by shocks and other disturbances that continually buffet the economy. In this article, Satyajit Chatterjee examines the historical process by which the explanation of fluctuations in the economy has evolved from a theory of cycles to one of shocks.
Business Review , Issue Mar , Pages 27-37

Journal Article
Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output

Over most of the last thirty-three years, the Federal Reserve has polled a small number of bank loan officers about their moves to tighten or ease commercial credit standards. Although the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey uses a small sample and gathers only qualitative information, it proves to be a useful tool in predicting changes in commercial lending and output. The authors find a strong correlation between tighter credit standards and slower loan growth and output, even after controlling for credit demand and other predictors of lending and output. The analysis also shows that the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Jul , Pages 1-16

Journal Article
Financial intermediation, monetary policy, and equilibrium business cycles

Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 19-28

Briefing
How useful are consumer surveys as macroeconomic indicators?

Most economic indicators attempt to summarize what happened at a particular time in the past. Consumer surveys, however, examine attitudes and are thus fundamentally different from other widely reported indicators. Some surveys, such as those that measure inflation expectations, have proven to be useful to economists and policymakers, while the evidence is more mixed for others, such as forecasts of consumer spending.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue July

Working Paper
Ex ante turning point forecasting with the composite leading index

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 40

Working Paper
North-South business cycles

This paper shows that the economic activity of the industrial North and developing South move together - when the North is above its trend, the South tends to be above its trend. We refer to this phenomenon as the "North-South business cycle." The paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of North-South trade that captures many cyclical features of North-South trade and production data. In particular, the high volatility of North-South terms of trade, and strong comovement of Northern and Southern activity. On the basis of this model we argue that North-South business cycles ...
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper WP-96-9

Discussion Paper
The real business cycle: intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement

We describe the postwar U.S. business cycle for the durable and nondurable goods producing sector. The business cycle is characterized by positive comovement of output, employment, and investment across the two sectors. We develop a two sector growth model to explain the observed pattern of comovements, and suggest that intermediate inputs produced by the nondurable goods sector for the durable goods sector play a crucial role.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 89

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