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Keywords:Business cycles 

Working Paper
Monetary policy, business cycles and the behavior of small manufacturing firms

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 93-4

Working Paper
The cyclical behavior of short term business lending: implications for financial propagation mechanisms

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 93-6

Working Paper
Ex ante turning point forecasting with the composite leading index

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 40

Working Paper
Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 95-17

Working Paper
The reliability of output gap estimates in real time

Compared to its central role in policy discussions in the United States and most other developed countries, the reliability of the measurement of the output gap has attracted relatively little academic study. Furthermore, both the academic literature and the debate among practitioners have tended to neglect a key factor. Although in a policy setting it is necessary to estimate the current (i.e. end-of-sample) output gap without the benefit of knowing the future, most studies concentrate on measurement that employs data that only become available later. In this paper we examine the reliability ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-38

Working Paper
The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior

Stylized facts suggest that bank lending behavior is highly procyclical. We offer a new hypothesis that may help explain why this occurs. The institutional memory hypothesis is driven by deterioration in the ability of loan officers over the bank's lending cycle that results in an easing of credit standards. This easing of standards may be compounded by simultaneous deterioration in the capacity of bank management to discipline its loan officers and reduction in the capacities of external stakeholders to discipline bank management. We test the empirical implications of this hypothesis using ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-02

Working Paper
Aggregate Consequences of Dynamic Credit Relationships

Which financial frictions matter in the aggregate? This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance a firm with a long-term contract. The contract is constrained efficient because firm revenue is costly to monitor and entrepreneurs may default. The cost of monitoring firms and the entrepreneurs' outside options determine the significance of moral hazard relative to limited enforcement for financial contracting. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, I find that the relative welfare loss from financial frictions is about 5 percent in terms of aggregate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-63

Working Paper
Long memory and persistence in aggregate output

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 7

Working Paper
Forecast-heterogeneity in the business cycle: small deviations from rationality, large dynamic effects

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 93-2

Working Paper
The international transmission of economic fluctuations: effects of U. S. business cycles on the Canadian economy

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 95-6

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