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Keywords:Business cycles 

Journal Article
Discretion, rules and volatility - commentary

Review , Volume 78 , Issue May , Pages 75-79

Journal Article
A progress report on business cycle models

This article reports the recent progress made by researchers trying to build business cycle models that can reliably reproduce aggregate U.S. time series. The article first describes some features of the U.S. data that the models are meant to reproduce. Then it describes a version of the standard business cycle model, along with the indivisible labor extension of that model, both of which assume that fluctuations in economic activity are caused only by shocks to technology. Finally, it describes a version of recent other extensions which assume that shocks to fiscal variables also contribute ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 18 , Issue Fall , Pages 2-16

Working Paper
What determines bilateral trade flows?

This paper undertakes an exhaustive search for robust determinants of international trade, where "robustness" is tested using three popular empirical methods. The paper is frankly atheoretical: our goal is solely to establish statistically robust relationships. Along the way, however, we relate our results to the empirical results obtained by prior researchers and to the received theory of international trade. We find that robust variables include a measure of the scale of factor endowments; fixed exchange rates; the level of development; and current account restrictions. Variables that are ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-05-11

Changes in the U.S. cycle: shifts in capital spending and balance sheet changes

Research Paper , Paper 9224

Working Paper
Sorting by skill over the course of job search

We use novel high-frequency panel data on individuals' job applications from an online job posting engine to study (1) whether at the beginning of search job seekers with different levels of education (skill) apply to different jobs, and (2) how search behavior changes as search continues. First, we find that there is sorting by skill at the beginning of search. Second, as search continues, job seekers apply to different types of jobs than at the beginning of search. In particular, assuming that sorting at the beginning of search is positive, as search continues there is less sorting by ...
Working Paper , Paper 12-03

Non-convexities in quantitative general equilibrium studies of business cycles

This paper reviews the role of micro non-convexities in the study of business cycles. One important non-convexity arises because an individual can work only one workweek length in a given week. The implication of this non-convexity is that the aggregate intertemporal elasticity of labor supply is large and the principal margin of adjustment is in the number employed-not in the hours per person employed-as observed. The paper also reviews a business cycle model with an occasionally binding capacity constraint. This model better mimics business cycle fluctuations than the standard real business ...
Staff Report , Paper 312

Journal Article
Are long expansions followed by short contractions?

Business Review , Issue Jul , Pages 3-11

Conference Paper
Discretion, rules and volatility - commentary

Proceedings , Volume 78 , Issue May , Pages 80-82

Working Paper
Consumer attitudes and business cycles

FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 91-11

Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t+1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t-2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: Net debt ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-28



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