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Keywords:Business cycles 

Working Paper
Business Exit During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Non-Traditional Measures in Historical Context

Given lags in official data releases, economists have studied "alternative data" measures of business exit resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Such measures are difficult to understand without historical context, so we review official data on business exit in recent decades. Business exit is common in the U.S., with about 7.5 percent of firms exiting annually in recent years, and is countercyclical (particularly recently). Both the high level and the cyclicality of exit are driven by very small firms. We explore a range of alternative measures and indicators of business exit, including ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-089

Journal Article
Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth

This paper argues that the reporting of facts in light of theory fosters the development of theory. Dynamic neoclassical macro theory guided the selection of facts to report. The hope is that these facts will foster the further development of this theory. A finding is that the price level is countercyclical in the post-Korean War period. This finding debunks the myths that the price level is procyclical, with the postwar period being no exception.
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Spr , Pages 3-18

Journal Article
A Texas revival

Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 1-7

State tax revenues over the business cycle: patterns and policy responses

State tax revenues have become far more sensitive to changing economic conditions since the turn of the century. The authors document this increasing volatility and offer suggestions for what state governments might do to better manage their tax revenues to avoid or minimize dramatic fiscal downturns.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession

Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-91 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ...
Review , Volume 84 , Issue Nov , Pages 29-36

Conference Paper
Commentary : understanding the Greenspan standard

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole , Issue Aug , Pages 107-118

Journal Article
Confidence and the business cycle

The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a tightening of monetary policy.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Economic slowdown: demand or supply induced?

Review , Volume 56 , Issue May

Conference Paper
Observations on global financial cycles and recent emerging market volatility

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Journal Article
Can state employment declines foretell national business cycles?

An investigation of whether it is possible to predict national recessions by following the employment performance of specific states or regions. The author compares state employment patterns to the health of the national economy over the post-WWII period.
Economic Commentary , Issue Sep



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