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Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 939.
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Journal Article
Productivity growth and the American business cycle
Chatterjee, Satyajit
(1995-09)
Business Review
, Issue Sep
, Pages 13-22
Working Paper
Tests of the relation between money and output in the real business cycle model
Mills, Leonard O.; Boschen, John F.
(1987)
Working Papers
, Paper 87-14
Working Paper
Business cycle research: methods and problems
Prescott, Edward C.
(1998)
Working Papers
, Paper 590
Working Paper
Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets
Sanchez, Juan M.; Cuadra, Gabriel; Sapriza, Horacio
(2009)
Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The model also accounts for the dynamics of other key macroeconomic variables in ...
Working Paper
, Paper 09-01
Working Paper
North-South financial integration and business cycles
Kouparitsas, Michael A.
(1996)
This paper examines the business cycle implications of increased North-South trade in financial assets. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model of North-South trade and compare the model's predictions under two asset market assumptions: a restricted setting in which asset trade is limited to a non-contingent one-period bond market; and a highly integrated setting in which agents have access to a complete contingent-claims market. Simulations of the North-South model suggest that increased North-South trade in asset markets (a) lowers Southern consumption and output volatility, and ...
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
, Paper WP-96-10
Working Paper
Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations
Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie
(1995)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 95-17
Journal Article
How well are the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District prepared for the next recession?
Wagner, Gary A.; Elder, Erick
(2007-11)
Economic downturns often force state policymakers to enact sizable tax increases or spending cuts to close budget shortfalls. In this paper the authors make use of a Markov-switching regression model to empirically describe the expansions and contractions in the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District. They use the estimated parameters from the switching regressions to form probability distributions of the revenue shortfalls states are likely to encounter in future slowdowns. This allows them to estimate the probability that each state's projected fiscal-year-end balances will be ...
Regional Economic Development
, Issue Nov
, Pages 75-87
Report
Theory ahead of business cycle measurement
Prescott, Edward C.
(1986)
Recent developments in business cycle theory are reviewed. The principal finding is that the growth model, which was developed to account for the secular patterns in important economic aggregates, displays the business cycle phenomena once it incorporates the observed randomness in the rate of technological advance. The amplitudes and serial correlation properties of fluctuations in output and employment that the growth model predicts match those historically experienced in the United States. Further, the model continues to display the growth facts it was developed to explain.
Staff Report
, Paper 102
Report
Liquidity and leverage
Adrian, Tobias; Shin, Hyun Song
(2008)
In a financial system in which balance sheets are continuously marked to market, asset price changes appear immediately as changes in net worth, prompting financial intermediaries to adjust the size of their balance sheets. We present evidence that marked-to-market leverage is strongly procyclical and argue that such behavior has aggregate consequences. Changes in dealer repurchase agreements (repos) -the primary margin of adjustment for the aggregate balance sheets of intermediaries - forecast changes in financial market risk as measured by the innovations in the Chicago Board Options ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 328
Working Paper
Market exposure and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle
D'Erasmo, Pablo; Moscoso Boedo, Herman J.; Decker, Ryan A.
(2014-03-24)
First Draft: November 1, 2011 We propose a theory of endogenous firm-level volatility over the business cycle based on endogenous market exposure. Firms that reach a larger number of markets diversify market-specific demand risk at a cost. The model is driven only by total factor productivity shocks and captures the business cycle properties of firm-level volatility. Using a panel of U.S. firms (Compustat), we empirically document the countercyclical nature of firm-level volatility. We then match this panel to Compustat?s Segment data and the U.S. Census?s Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) ...
Working Papers
, Paper 14-12
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Index numbers (Economics) 3 items
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Japan 3 items
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capital asset pricing model 3 items
technological innovations 3 items
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Bank reserves 2 items
Banks and banking 2 items
Banks and banking - Ratio analysis 2 items
Cities and towns 2 items
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European Economic Community 2 items
European Union 2 items
Federal Open Market Committee 2 items
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Households - Economic aspects 2 items
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International business enterprises 2 items
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North American Free Trade Agreement 2 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 2 items
Regulatory reform 2 items
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Slow recoveries 2 items
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Trade credit 2 items
War - Economic aspects 2 items
Welfare 2 items
Zipf's law 2 items
precautionary savings 2 items
Total factor productivity 2 items
Accounting 1 items
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Argentina 1 items
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Australia 1 items
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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1 items
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COVID-19 1 items
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 1 items
Commercial paper issues 1 items
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Counterfactual policy analysis 1 items
Credit network 1 items
Credit scores 1 items
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Current account 1 items
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Durable goods, Consumer 1 items
Duration analysis 1 items
Duration dependence 1 items
Economic conditions - Great Britain 1 items
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Economists 1 items
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Education - Economic aspects 1 items
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Emigration and immigration 1 items
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Employment protection 1 items
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Entry 1 items
Euro-dollar market 1 items
Europe 1 items
European Central Bank 1 items
European Monetary System (Organization) 1 items
Exit 1 items
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Extended Kalman filter 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1 items
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Finland 1 items
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France 1 items
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General Motors Corporation 1 items
Germany 1 items
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Industrial organization (Economic theory) 1 items
Infrastructure (Economics) 1 items
Input-output linkages 1 items
Input-output network 1 items
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Intangible capital 1 items
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International economic integration 1 items
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Investment 1 items
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Job creation 1 items
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Korea 1 items
Labor flows 1 items
Labor force 1 items
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Labor market - Canada 1 items
Labor share 1 items
Labor wedge 1 items
Latin America 1 items
Loans, Personal 1 items
Lucas critique 1 items
Macroeconomic modeling 1 items
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Markets 1 items
Markov processes 1 items
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Mexico 1 items
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Middle West 1 items
Migration, Internal - United States 1 items
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Monetary policy asymmetries 1 items
Money theory 1 items
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Mortality - United States 1 items
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New England 1 items
Nonlinear theories 1 items
Nontraditional data 1 items
On-the-job search 1 items
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Pharmaceutical industry 1 items
Plant shutdowns 1 items
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Policy counterfactuals 1 items
Policy shocks 1 items
Politics 1 items
Price levels 1 items
Price markups 1 items
Price regulation 1 items
Private equity 1 items
Random walks (Mathematics) 1 items
Ratio analysis 1 items
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Real-time data 1 items
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Repurchase agreements 1 items
Research and development 1 items
Retirement 1 items
Revenue 1 items
Risk management 1 items
Sampling (Statistics) 1 items
Scarring 1 items
Self-employed 1 items
Self-employment 1 items
Spain 1 items
State space model 1 items
Statistical methods 1 items
Structural changes 1 items
Subsidiary corporations 1 items
Summary of Economic Projections 1 items
Supply and demand 1 items
Sweden 1 items
Tax revenue estimating 1 items
Tax revenue estimating - Illinois 1 items
Time use 1 items
Trade linkages 1 items
Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy) 1 items
Treasury bills 1 items
Unemployment insurance 1 items
Unobserved heterogeneity 1 items
Volcker 1 items
Wage markups 1 items
bank examinations 1 items
bond markets 1 items
financial contracting 1 items
financial development 1 items
growth rates 1 items
input credit 1 items
limited enforcement 1 items
open economy macroeconomics 1 items
partisan conflict 1 items
population 1 items
private information 1 items
search frictions 1 items
seasonal employment 1 items
self employment 1 items
small firms 1 items
unemployment durations 1 items
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