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Journal Article
The size and growth of businesses started during the financial crisis

Firms started during recessions, especially those started in 2008, have grown less during the first 3 years of their life than those started in non-recession years.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Goldilocks in the corner office

The proper level of CEO compensation is more complicated than some normative sense of what the public considers fair. But with CEO pay regularly reaching eight, even nine figures, could current levels possibly be efficient? Economists can make a good theoretical case that CEO pay is inefficient, but they've had trouble pinpointing the systematic rent (pay in excess of fair market value) being extracted by CEOs. While it might not lower CEO pay, better corporate governance is likely the key to ensuring that it is tied tightly to firm performance.
The Region , Volume 20 , Issue Dec , Pages 22-25, 32-35

Journal Article
Financing of business expansion

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Recent developments in business financing

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Jun

Working Paper
Fiscal multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic vs. stochastic duration

This paper revisits the size of the fiscal multiplier. The experiment is a fiscal expansion under the assumption of a pegged nominal rate of interest. We demonstrate that a quantitatively important issue is the articulation of the exit from the policy experiment. If the monetary-fiscal expansion is stochastic with a mean duration of T periods, the fiscal multiplier can be unboundedly large. However, if the monetary-fiscal expansion is for a fixed T periods, the multiplier is much smaller. Our explanation rests on a Jensen?s inequality type argument: the deterministic multiplier is convex in ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1235

Has Business Fixed Investment Really Been Unusually Low?

Business fixed investment represents the spending by businesses to increase production capacity. It is traditionally decomposed into equipment (such as computers and machines), structures (such as plants, shopping malls, or warehouses), and intellectual property (such as software and R&D). After declining sharply during the Great Recession, business fixed investment (BFI) recovered in 2010, but investment was again quite low in 2015 and 2016. This slowdown was driven in part by the decline of oil prices that led to a significant contraction in the oil drilling industry. Since then, growth has ...
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
Financing business investment

Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Aug , Pages 1039-1045

Journal Article
Location dynamics: a key consideration for urban policy

What determines where businesses and households locate? Location decisions can affect the economic health of cities and metropolitan areas. But as Jeffrey Brinkman explains, how firms, residents, and workers go about choosing where to locate can involve complex interactions with sometimes unpredictable consequences.
Business Review , Issue 1 , Pages 9-15

Working Paper
Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US

In the US, income and expenditure-side estimates of GDP (GDPI and GDPE) measure "true" GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconciled quarterly estimates of true GDP. In this paper, we extend these methods to provide reconciled historical true GDP estimates at a monthly frequency. We do this using a Bayesian mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) involving GDPE, GDPI, unobserved true GDP, and monthly indicators of short-term economic activity. Our MF-VAR imposes restrictions that reflect a measurement-error ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-01

Discussion Paper
April Update: The Coronavirus and Firms in the Fifth Dis

Over the past several weeks, social distancing and shutdowns have impacted our economy. Fifth District firms continued to tell us how COVID-19 has affected their business operations in recent surveys.
Regional Matters


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