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Working Paper
Do banks strategically time public bond issuance because of the accompanying disclosure, due diligence, and investor scrutiny?

This paper tests a new hypothesis that bank managers issue bonds, at least in part, to convey positive, private information and refrain from issuance to hide negative, private information. We find evidence for this hypothesis, using rating migrations, equity returns, bond issuance, and balance sheet data for US bank holding companies. The results add to our understanding of the role of "market discipline" in monitoring bank holding companies and also inform upon how proposed regulatory requirements that banking organizations frequently issue public bonds might augment "market discipline."
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-37

Working Paper
The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data

This paper examines two qualitative rules of thumb, frequently invoked in discussions of bank regulatory policy. The first, that equity holders prefer more risk to less, derives from a result in option pricing theory, that an option's value increases monotonically with the riskiness of the underlying asset. This result is shown to depend on very restrictive assumptions regarding the underlying assets return distribution and the type of option being considered. These restrictive assumptions do not generally obtain in practice. The second rule of thumb is that bondholders' and deposit insurers' ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-00-24

Common bonds

Essay from the 2004 Annual Report.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Consumption-based modeling of long-horizon returns

Numerous studies have documented the failure of consumption-based pricing models to explain observed patterns in stock and bond returns. This failure has sometimes been attributed to frictions, transaction costs or durability. If such frictions are important, they should primarily affect the higher frequency components of asset returns. The long-swings, or lower-frequency comovements should be less affected. Consequently if transaction costs are important, tests of the consumption based asset pricing model which concentrate on lower-frequency components may be more successful.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-98-18

Split ratings and the pricing of credit risk

Despite the fact that over 50 percent of all corporate bonds have different ratings from Moody's and Standard and Poor's at issuance, most bond pricing models ignore these differences of opinion. Our work compares a number of different methods of accounting for split ratings in estimating bond pricing models. We find that pricing rules that use only the Moody's or Standard and Poor's ratings produce unbiased but highly inefficient forecasts. If models rely instead on simply the higher or lower of the two ratings (but not both), greater bias is introduced with insignificant gains in ...
Research Paper , Paper 9711

Journal Article
Small-issue IDBs--tax policy in search of a focus

An examination of the history of small-issue industrial development bonds, with an analysis of the efficiency and effectiveness of this financing method.
Economic Commentary , Issue Aug

Working Paper
A discrete-time two-factor model for pricing bonds and interest rate derivatives under random volatility

This paper develops a discrete-time two-factor model of interest rates with analytical solutions for bonds and many interest rate derivatives when the volatility of the short rate follows a GARCH process that can be correlated with the level of the short rate itself. Besides bond and bond futures, the model yields analytical solutions for prices of European options on discount bonds (and futures) as well as other interest rate derivatives such as caps, floors, average rate options, yield curve options, etc. The advantage of our discrete-time model over continuous-time stochastic volatility ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 99-20

Journal Article
Economic factors, monetary policy and expected returns on stocks and bonds

This paper examines the impact of the stance of monetary policy on security returns. The two measures of the stance of monetary policy used, the federal funds rate and an index based on the changes in the discount rate, contain significant information that can be used to forecast expected stock and bond portfolio returns. Specifically, we find that a restrictive (expansive) monetary policy stance decreases (increases) returns of large and small stock portfolios and in some cases, corporate bond portfolios. The monetary policy stance measures have explanatory power in forecasting stock and ...
Economic Review

Working Paper
Testing conflicts of interest at bond rating agencies with market anticipation: evidence that reputation incentives dominate

This paper presents the first comprehensive test of whether well-known conflicts of interest at bond rating agencies importantly influence their actions. This hypothesis is tested against the alternative that rating agency actions are primarily influenced by a countervailing incentive to protect their reputations as delegated monitors. These two hypotheses generate a number of testable predictions regarding the anticipation of credit-rating downgrades by the bond market, which we investigate using a new data set of about 2,000 credit rating migrations from Moody's and Standard & Poor's, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-68

Journal Article
Collateral damage detected

Emerging Issues , Issue Sep



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