Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 19.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Keywords:Beveridge curve 

Report
Shifts in the Beveridge curve

This note puts the current shift in the Beveridge curve into context by examining the behavior of the curve since 1950. Outward shifts in the Beveridge curve have been common occurrences during U.S. recoveries. By itself, the presence of a shift has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or lower than that in the preceding expansion.
Staff Reports , Paper 687

Journal Article
Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

Inflation has climbed since 2021, as the labor market has tightened. Two historical data relationships can account for elevated inflation over the past two years: the Beveridge curve, which relates job vacancies and unemployment rates over the business cycle, and a nonlinear version of the Phillips curve, which links inflation to labor market slack. Combining estimates of the two curves implies that inflation can fall in conjunction with a “soft landing” for the economy if labor market easing is achieved mainly by reducing job vacancies rather than increasing unemployment.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 17 , Pages 5

Is a Soft Landing Possible? What the Beveridge Curve Reveals

Adjusting the Beveridge curve to exclude the effect of workers switching jobs suggests that the vacancy rate could fall to pre-pandemic levels without causing the U.S. jobless rate to exceed a 2001-23 average.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Jobseekers

Matching efficiency is the productivity of the process for matching jobseekers to available jobs. Job-finding is the output; vacant jobs and active jobseekers are the inputs. Measurement of matching efficiency follows the same principles as measuring a Hicks-neutral index of productivity of production. We develop a framework for measuring matching productivity when the population of jobseekers is heterogeneous. The efficiency index for each type of jobseeker is the monthly job-finding rate for the type adjusted for the overall tightness of the labor market. We find that overall matching ...
Working Papers , Paper 721

The Beveridge Curve and Structural Barriers in the Labor Market

Beveridge curves for vulnerable groups, especially single mothers, differ from the overall workforce, meaning structural barriers to the job matching process exist.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 24 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs

We specify a simple search and matching model of the aggregate labor market allowing for productivity-driven changes in match efficiency. This mechanism leads to shifts in the Beveridge curve that are broadly consistent with the pattern observed in the United States. We simulate data from the fully nonlinear solution of the model and estimate a time-varying parameter vector-autoregressions (TVP-VAR) on the unemployment and vacancies series to assess whether the shifts in the underlying theoretical model are being picked up by the nonlinear time series model. The results suggest that the ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 197-226

Journal Article
Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.
Economic Review , Volume 2022 , Issue 24 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting

We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and out-of-steady-state dynamics. We find that the shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession was due to all three factors, and each factor taken separately had a large effect. Comparing the pre-2010 period to the post-2010 period, a fall in matching efficiency and out-of-steady-state dynamics ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-027

Examining the Beveridge Curve with a Dual Vacancy Model

The Beveridge curve looks at the relationship between the job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate. But how is the curve affected by employed workers competing for unfilled jobs?
On the Economy

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E52 6 items

J63 6 items

J23 5 items

J64 5 items

E24 3 items

J60 2 items

show more (4)

PREVIOUS / NEXT