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Keywords:Beveridge curve 

Working Paper
Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting

We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and out-of-steady-state dynamics. We find that the shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession was due to all three factors, and each factor taken separately had a large effect. Comparing the pre-2010 period to the post-2010 period, a fall in matching efficiency and out-of-steady-state dynamics ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-027

Report
Shifts in the Beveridge curve

This note puts the current shift in the Beveridge curve into context by examining the behavior of the curve since 1950. Outward shifts in the Beveridge curve have been common occurrences during U.S. recoveries. By itself, the presence of a shift has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or lower than that in the preceding expansion.
Staff Reports , Paper 687

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve

When firms decide to post a vacancy they can hire from the pool of unemployed workers or they can poach a worker from another firm. In this paper we show that if there are two different matching processes, one for unemployed workers and another one for job-to-job transitions, then implications for the Beveridge curve are potentially very different, influencing the effects of monetary policy on unemployment. We show that over the years the hiring process and how job postings are used as an input into this process has changed dramatically.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Journal Article
Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.
Economic Review , Volume 2022 , Issue 24 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Jobseekers

Matching efficiency is the productivity of the process for matching jobseekers to available jobs. Job-finding is the output; vacant jobs and active jobseekers are the inputs. Measurement of matching efficiency follows the same principles as measuring a Hicks-neutral index of productivity of production. We develop a framework for measuring matching productivity when the population of jobseekers is heterogeneous. The efficiency index for each type of jobseeker is the monthly job-finding rate for the type adjusted for the overall tightness of the labor market. We find that overall matching ...
Working Papers , Paper 721

Journal Article
Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs

We specify a simple search and matching model of the aggregate labor market allowing for productivity-driven changes in match efficiency. This mechanism leads to shifts in the Beveridge curve that are broadly consistent with the pattern observed in the United States. We simulate data from the fully nonlinear solution of the model and estimate a time-varying parameter vector-autoregressions (TVP-VAR) on the unemployment and vacancies series to assess whether the shifts in the underlying theoretical model are being picked up by the nonlinear time series model. The results suggest that the ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 197-226

The Beveridge Curve and Structural Barriers in the Labor Market

Beveridge curves for vulnerable groups, especially single mothers, differ from the overall workforce, meaning structural barriers to the job matching process exist.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve

When firms decide to post a vacancy they can hire from the pool of unemployed workers or they can poach a worker from another firm. In this paper we show that if there are two different matching processes, one for unemployed workers and another one for job-to-job transitions, then implications for the Beveridge curve are potentially very different, influencing the effects of monetary policy on unemployment. We show that over the years the hiring process and how job postings are used as an input into this process have changed dramatically.
Working Papers , Paper 2221

Does Employers’ Worker Poaching Explain the Beveridge Curve’s Odd Behavior?

Increased worker job-hopping may help explain the odd-shaped post-COVID Beveridge curve and the underlying employment behavior it depicts.
Dallas Fed Economics

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