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Keywords:Beveridge curve 

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve

This study introduces a dual vacancy model to explain the recent anomalous behavior of the Beveridge curve. The model proposes that job vacancies are partitioned into two categories, one for the unemployed and the other for job-to-job transitions, and that they function in separate markets. We estimate the monthly numbers of both job vacancy types for the U.S. economy and its subsectors starting from 2000 and find a significant surge in poaching vacancies in the mid-2010s. Our analysis indicates that the dual vacancy model provides a better fit to the data than traditional models. These ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Journal Article
Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.
Economic Review , Volume 2022 , Issue 24 , Pages 6

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve

This study introduces a dual vacancy model to explain the recent anomalous behavior of the Beveridge curve. The model proposes that job vacancies are partitioned into two categories, one for the unemployed and the other for job-to-job transitions, and that they function in separate markets. We estimate the monthly numbers of both job vacancy types for the U.S. economy and its subsectors starting from 2000 and find a significant surge in poaching vacancies in the mid-2010s. Our analysis indicates that the dual vacancy model provides a better fit to the data than traditional models. These ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Working Paper
Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting

We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and out-of-steady-state dynamics. We find that the shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession was due to all three factors, and each factor taken separately had a large effect. Comparing the pre-2010 period to the post-2010 period, a fall in matching efficiency and out-of-steady-state dynamics ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-027

Journal Article
Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 24 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs

We specify a simple search and matching model of the aggregate labor market allowing for productivity-driven changes in match efficiency. This mechanism leads to shifts in the Beveridge curve that are broadly consistent with the pattern observed in the United States. We simulate data from the fully nonlinear solution of the model and estimate a time-varying parameter vector-autoregressions (TVP-VAR) on the unemployment and vacancies series to assess whether the shifts in the underlying theoretical model are being picked up by the nonlinear time series model. The results suggest that the ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 197-226

Is a Soft Landing Possible? What the Beveridge Curve Reveals

Adjusting the Beveridge curve to exclude the effect of workers switching jobs suggests that the vacancy rate could fall to pre-pandemic levels without causing the U.S. jobless rate to exceed a 2001-23 average.
On the Economy

The Beveridge Curve and Structural Barriers in the Labor Market

Beveridge curves for vulnerable groups, especially single mothers, differ from the overall workforce, meaning structural barriers to the job matching process exist.
On the Economy

Report
Shifts in the Beveridge curve

This note puts the current shift in the Beveridge curve into context by examining the behavior of the curve since 1950. Outward shifts in the Beveridge curve have been common occurrences during U.S. recoveries. By itself, the presence of a shift has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or lower than that in the preceding expansion.
Staff Reports , Paper 687

A Hard or Soft Landing? The Answer May Lie in the Beveridge Curve

The traditional Beveridge curve suggests that a sharp rise in unemployment is needed to meaningfully lower the job vacancy rate. But the curve shaped by the pandemic labor market may signal a different result.
On the Economy

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