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Keywords:Bayesian Methods 

Working Paper
What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?

The equilibrium real interest rate (r*) is the short-term real interest rate that, in the long run, is consistent with aggregate production at potential and stable inflation. Estimation of r* faces considerable econometric and empirical challenges. On the econometric front, classical inference confronts the "pile-up" problem. Empirically, the co-movement of output, inflation, unemployment, and real interest rates is too weak to yield precise estimates of r*. These challenges are addressed by applying Bayesian methods and examining the role of several "demand shifters", including asset prices, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-77

Working Paper
Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve

Farmer and Nicol (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K. and Canadian data. We estimate versions of both models that restrict the parameters of the private sector equations to be the same for all three countries. Our preferred specification is the constrained version of the FM-model which has a marginal data ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-032

Working Paper
Endogenous Uncertainty

We show that macroeconomic uncertainty can be considered as exogenous when assessing its effects on the U.S. economy. Instead, financial uncertainty can at least in part arise as an endogenous response to some macroeconomic developments, and overlooking this channel leads to distortions in the estimated effects of financial uncertainty shocks on the economy. We obtain these empirical findings with an econometric model that simultaneously allows for contemporaneous effects of both uncertainty shocks on economic variables and of economic shocks on uncertainty. While the traditional econometric ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1805

Working Paper
Assessing International Commonality in Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Effects

This paper uses a large vector autoregression to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies. We provide evidence of significant commonality in macroeconomic volatility, with one common factor driving strong comovement across economies and variables. We measure uncertainty and its effects with a large model in which the error volatilities feature a factor structure containing time-varying global components and idiosyncratic components. Global uncertainty contemporaneously affects both the levels and volatilities of the included variables. Our new ...
Working Papers , Paper 201803R

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