Housing Bust, Bank Lending & Employment : Evidence from Multimarket Banks
I use geographic variation in bank lending to study how bank real estate losses impacted the supply of credit and employment during the Great Recession. Banks exposed to distressed housing markets cut mortgage and small business lending relative to other banks in the same county. This lending contraction had real e?ects, as counties whose banks were exposed to adverse shocks in other markets su?ered employment declines, especially in young ?rms. This ?nding is robust to instrumenting for bank exposure to housing shocks using shocks in distant markets, exposure based on historical lending, or ...
Internal Liquidity Management and Local Credit Provision
This paper studies the patterns of internal liquidity management and their effect on bank lending, using a novel branch-level dataset of Brazilian banks. Our results suggest that internal liquidity management increases during times of financial stress. Privately owned banks are most affected by a liquidity shock, and increase the level of internal funding to maintain their branch lending, while their government-owned competitors react strategically. Private and government banks increase the funding of branches in concentrated and riskier areas. This funding translates into more lending, as ...
The Effect of Banks' Financial Position on Credit Growth : Evidence from OECD Countries
This paper presents empirical evidence on the effect of banks' financial position on credit growth using a sample of 29 OECD countries. The failure of the exogeneity assumption of explanatory variables is addressed using dynamic panel type instruments. The empirical results show that among capital, profits and liquidity at the end of the previous year, capital is the most important predictor of credit growth in the current year. The relationship between capital and credit growth is non-linear. Point estimates from the preferred econometric specification imply that at the sample mean a one ...
Competition and Bank Fragility
The Impact of Post Stress Tests Capital on Bank Lending
We investigate one channel through which the annual bank stress tests, as part of the Federal Reserve?s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) review, could unexpectedly affect the provision of bank credit. To quantify the impact of the stress tests on lending, we compare the capital implied by the supervisory stress tests with the level of capital implied by the banks? own models, a measure we call the capital gap. We then study the impact of the capital gap on the loan growth of BHCs subject to supervisory or bank-run stress tests. Consistent with previous results in the bank ...
Claim Dilution in the Municipal Debt Market
Using loan-level municipal bank lending data, we examine the debt structure of municipalities and its response to exogenous income shocks. We show that small, more indebted, low-income, and medium credit quality counties are particularly reliant on private bank financing. Low income counties are more likely to increase bank debt share after an adverse permanent income shock while high income counties do not shift their debt structure in response. In contrast, only high income counties draw on their credit lines after adverse transitory income shocks. Overall, our paper raises concerns about ...
Insider bank runs: community bank fragility and the financial crisis of 2007
From 2007 to 2010, more than 200 community banks in the United States failed. Many of these failed community banking organizations (CBOs) held less than $1 billion in total assets. As economic conditions worsen, banking organizations are expected to preserve capital to withstand unexpected losses. This study examines CBOs prior to failure or becoming problem institutions to understand if, on average, a run on capital by insiders via dividend payouts led to greater financial fragility at the onset of the crisis. We use a control group of similar-sized banks that did not fail or become problem ...
Owe a Bank Millions, the Bank Has a Problem: Credit Concentration in Bad Times
How does a bank react when a substantial share of its borrowers suffer a large negative shock? To answer this question we exploit the 2014 collapse of energy prices using the universe of Mexican commercial bank loans. We show that, after the drop in energy prices, banks exposed to the energy sector increased their exposure to these borrowers even more, relaxing credit margins to their larger debtors in the sector. An increase of one standard deviation in a bank's ex-ante exposure to the energy sector increased the loan volume to borrowers in the sector by 18 percent and reduced interest rates ...
Domestic Lending and the Pandemic: How Does Banks' Exposure to Covid-19 Abroad Affect Their Lending in the United States?
We study how U.S. banks' exposure to the economic fallout due to governments' response to Covid-19 in foreign countries has affected their credit provision to borrowers in the United States. We combine a rarely accessed dataset on U.S. banks' cross-border exposure to borrowers in foreign countries with the most detailed regulatory ("credit registry") data that is available on their U.S.-based lending. We compare the change in the U.S. lending of banks that are more vs. less exposed to the pandemic abroad, during and after the onset of Covid-19 in 2020. We document strong spillover effects: ...
Can the Federal Reserve Effectively Target Main Street? Evidence from the 1970s Recession
Modern central bankers confront a challenge of providing economic stimulus even when the policy rate is constrained by a lower bound. This challenge has led to substantial innovation by policymakers and a proliferation of new policy tools. In this paper, I offer evidence on the efficacy of a new tool known as funding for lending, which provides banks with subsidized funding to make additional loans. I focus on a historical episode from the United States in which the Federal Reserve provided banks with steeply subsidized loans to promote the expansion of credit within their local communities. ...