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Journal Article
Investigating U.S. government and trade deficits
Rosensweig, Jeffrey A.; Tallman, Ellis W. (1991-05)
Economic Review , Issue May , Pages 1-11

Working Paper
The United States as a heavily indebted country
Howard, David H. (1989)
According to data published by the Department of Commerce, the U.S. net international investment position (roughly the net external debt position with its sign reversed) at the end of 1987 was a negative $368 billion. This sum represents a deterioration of about $100 billion from the end-1986 level. The sharp downward plunge in the United States' net international investment position in recent years is, of course, a reflection of the large current account deficits recorded during most of the 1980s. In this paper, the U.S. net external debt position is examined and compared with the experience ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 353

Working Paper
Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve
Kehoe, Patrick J.; Kydland, Finn E.; Backus, David K. (1992)
We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements. We document these same properties in a two-country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect, in large part, the dynamics of capital formation. We find that the general equilibrium perspective is essential: The relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9211

Speech
Trade deficits and the health of the U.S. economy
Fisher, Richard W. (2006)
Remarks before the Little Rock Rotary Club, Little Rock, February 14, 2006 ; "If we create the conditions to let our private sector do what it does by its very nature--constantly adapt and reposition itself--then we have nothing to fear from competition from our trading partners, including those with whom we presently run big deficits.">
Speeches and Essays , Paper 79

Working Paper
Trade, investment, and international borrowing in two-country business cycle models
Pakko, Michael R. (1997)
Two country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. This paper identifies a new anomaly related to a basic property of typical models: the prediction of countercyclical net exports is fundamentally related to (counterfactual) implication for negative cross-country investment correlations. Although the introduction of investment adjustment costs can reverse this anomaly, it has the side-effect of inducing the wrong cyclical behavior for net exports. ...
Working Papers , Paper 1997-023

Working Paper
Substitution elasticities and investment dynamics in two country business cycle models
Pakko, Michael R. (2003)
Two country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. This paper identifies an anomaly related to a basic property of typical models: The prediction of countercyclical net exports is fundamentally related to a counterfactual implication for negative cross-country investment correlations. The introduction of investment adjustment costs can induce positive investment comovement; however, this has the side-effect of reversing the cyclical behavior of net ...
Working Papers , Paper 2002-030

Speech
The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit
Bernanke, Ben S. (2005)
a speech at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond, Virginia, March 10, 2005 and the Homer Jones Lecture, St. Louis, Missouri, on April 14, 2005
Speech , Paper 77

Journal Article
Viewing the current account deficit as a capital inflow
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (1998-12)
With the 1998 current account deficit approaching $225 billion, attention is again focusing on the deficit's impact on U.S. jobs. Although a high deficit does adversely affect employment in export- and import-competing industries, it also means that considerable foreign capital is flowing into the United States, supporting domestic investment spending that stimulates growth and creates jobs.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Dec

Report
Modelling U.S. services trade flows: a cointegration-ECM approach
Viana, Sandra; Hung, Juann H. (1995)
The U.S. service surplus soared from near zero in 1985 to about $60 billion in 1992, offsetting about two thirds of the goods trade deficit. Could this merely reflect improvement in data collection? Or does this mean U.S. services industries are more competitive internationally than goods industries? Is the services surplus likely to continue to rise? This paper estimates a forecastable model of U.S. services trade to address the above questions. We find that data improvement actually had a negative net impact on the services surplus, since it affected imports more than exports. Instead, the ...
Research Paper , Paper 9518

Journal Article
Changing U.S. trade patterns
Hervey, Jack L. (1990-03)
Economic Perspectives , Volume 14 , Issue Mar

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