Financial reform in Australia and New Zealand
Financial aggregates as conditioning information for Australian output and inflation
This paper examines whether financial aggregates provide information useful for predicting real output growth and inflation, extending the inquiry conducted in Tallman and Chandra (1996). First, we investigate whether perfect knowledge of the future values of financial aggregates helps improve significantly the forecasting accuracy of output and inflation in a simple vector autoregression framework. The results display only one notable improvement to the forecasts with the addition of perfect information on the financial aggregates?future information on credit growth helps improve the ...
Credit risk in the Australian banking sector
This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 2, "Credit risk modeling." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27, 1998, was designed to encourage a consensus between the public and private sectors on an agenda for capital regulation in the new century.
The New Australian monetary policy
Modelling inflation in Australia
This paper develops an empirically constant, data-coherent, error correction model for inflation in Australia. The level of consumer prices is a mark-up over domestic and import costs, with adjustments for dynamics and relative aggregate demand. We address issues of cointegration, general to specific modelling, dynamic specification, model evaluation and testing' parameter constancy, and exogeneity. We also test this model against existing models of Australian prices: this model encompasses (but is not encompassed by) the existing models.