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Conference Paper
Financial reform in Australia
Journal Article
Do capital controls affect the response of investment to saving? evidence from the Pacific Basin
This paper examines the effect of capital controls on the response of investment to savings in Pacific Basin countries. A robust finding is that the size of the savings coefficient tends to be smaller (larger) in countries with relatively higher (lower) capital controls. Additionally, relaxation in capital controls for the most part had no discernible impact on the savings- investment relationship in individual country time-series regressions. At least a partial resolution to these puzzles is found in the government policy response: Countries with a relatively high saving-investment ...
Journal Article
Macroeconomic shocks and business cycles in Australia
A small vector autoregression model is estimated to assess how demand and supply shocks influence Australian output and price behavior. The model is identified by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have transitory effects on output, while aggregate supply shocks have permanent effects. The paper describes how Australian macroeconomic variables respond to demand and supply shocks in the short run and in the long run. It also finds that demand shocks are dominant in determining fluctuations in Australian output at a one-quarter horizon, but supply shocks assume the larger role at longer ...
Working Paper
The information content of financial aggregates in Australia
This paper examines whether financial aggregates provide information useful for predicting the subsequent behavior of real output and inflation. We employ vector autoregression (VAR) techniques to summarize the information in the data, providing evidence on the incremental forecasting value of financial aggregates for forecasting real output and inflation. The in-sample results suggest that there are only a few situations in which knowledge of the aggregates helps forecast real output and inflation. We then test the forecast performance of the VAR systems for two years out-of-sample in order ...
Working Paper
An analysis of the welfare implications of alternative exchange rate regimes: an intertemporal model with an application
We construct a two-period model of an open economy and use the model to analyze the welfare implications of fixed and floating exchange regimes. Consumers have perfect foresight and save by holding domestic and foreign bonds, which are chosen according to relative interest rates, deflated by the rate of devaluation of the domestic currency. The government produces a pure public good and finances its deficits by issuing money, domestic bonds, and by foreign borrowing. The government's bonds compete with private investment, which is entirely debt financed. Foreign exchange, i.e., foreign bonds, ...