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Discussion Paper
Firms' Employment and Wage Outlook Going Into 2025
Mengedoth, Joseph; Kosakow, Jason (2024-12-20)
Every November, the Richmond Fed asks businesses a series of questions about their expectations for hiring, wage adjustments, and other employment-related topics. This year, in addition to the usual set of questions, we asked firms if they have reduced the size of their workforce over the past three months and what workforce decisions they would make if business conditions deteriorated in the next six months.Consistent with past results, most responding businesses expect to maintain or increase employee headcount over the next 12 months. However, there were some shifts in responses compared ...
Regional Matters

Working Paper
Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets Under Trade Uncertainty
Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng (2024-05-05)
We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentive for firms to reduce exposures to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-16

Newsletter
Understanding the Relationship between Real Wage Growth and Labor Market Conditions
Jordan, Andrew; Aaronson, Daniel (2014-10)
The authors find that the share of the labor force that is medium-term unemployed (five to 26 weeks unemployed) and the share working part time (less than 35 hours per week) involuntarily are strongly correlated with real wage growth. Moreover, they estimate that average real wage growth would have been between one-half of a percentage point and a full percentage point higher in June 2014 if 2005?07 labor market conditions had been restored, indicating that the slack in the jobs market still weighs heavily on the real wage prospects of U.S. workers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Lifetime Earnings Differences across Black and White Individuals: Years Worked Matter
Glover, Andrew; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2022-12-01)
In this article, Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Río, and Emily Pollard go beyond point-in-time measures of earnings and examine lifetime earnings differences between Black and white individuals. They find that, on average, Black individuals earn about one-third less than white individuals over the course of their lifetimes (a difference equivalent to about $550,000), though the size of this gap varies by sex and education level. In addition, they find that differences in years worked, which are not captured by point-in-time measures, contribute substantially to earnings differences between ...
Economic Review , Volume 108 , Issue no.1

Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties?
Terry, Ellyn; de Zeeuw, Mels (2018-03-01)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Banks' 2017 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), this paper investigates the various ways in which different types of firms with less than 500 employees experience and address hiring difficulties, including when they decide to increase compensation.The authors find significant variation in hiring difficulties by type of firm, and a firm's response appears to depend on the nature of the problem. The most common response is to increase compensation, with firms that experience competition from other employers being the most likely to do so. Other common ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2018-01

Discussion Paper
Pass-Through of Wages and Import Prices Has Increased in the Post-COVID Period
Amiti, Mary; Heise, Sebastian; Karahan, Fatih; Sahin, Aysegul (2022-08-23)
Annual CPI inflation reached 9.1 percent in June 2022, the highest reading since November 1981. The broad-based nature of the recent inflation readings has increased concerns that inflation may run above the Federal Reserve’s target for a longer period than anticipated. In this post we use detailed industry-level data to examine two prominent cost-push-based explanations for high inflation: rising import prices and higher labor costs. We find that the pass-through of wages and input prices to the U.S. Producer Price Index has grown during the pandemic. Both the large changes in these costs ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220823

Working Paper
The Dynamics of the Smoking Wage Penalty
Darden, Michael; Pitts, M. Melinda; Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2020-07-28)
Cigarette smokers earn significantly less than nonsmokers, but the magnitude of the smoking wage gap and the pathways by which it originates are unclear. Proposed mechanisms often focus on spot differences in employee productivity or employer preferences, neglecting the dynamic nature of human capital development and addiction. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic model of young workers as they transition from schooling to the labor market, a period in which the lifetime trajectory of wages is being developed. We estimate the model with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-11

Discussion Paper
What's Behind Firms' Reported Improvements in Meeting Demand?
Kosakow, Jason (2022-07-14)
According to special question results from our most recent monthly business survey, Fifth District firms reported improvement in their ability to meet customer demand compared to earlier in the year. Moreover, the majority of respondents said they expect to fully meet customer demand in the next 12 months. Although firms have continued to take action to boost production, softening demand itself may be another reason for the reported improvements.
Regional Matters

Working Paper
The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness
Rubinton, Hannah; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Marks, Cassandra; Isaacson, Maggie (2024-11-20)
During the COVID-19 pandemic, there were unprecedented shortfalls in immigration. Concurrently, as the economy recovered, the labor market became tight, with the number of vacancies per unemployed worker reaching two, more than twice its pre-pandemic average. In this article, we investigate whether these two trends are connected. We find no evidence to support the hypothesis that the immigration shortfalls caused the tight labor market, for two main reasons. First, while the immigration deficit peaked at about two million workers, this number had largely recovered by February 2022, just as ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-003

Journal Article
Why Immigration Is an Urban Phenomenon
Monras, Joan (2023-07-03)
Immigration is fundamentally an urban phenomenon. Both in the United States and elsewhere, immigrants settle primarily in cities—especially high-wage, high cost-of-living cities. The most likely reason is that immigrants often send a significant share of their income back to their origin country. As a result, they value a city’s high wages and are less discouraged by the high living costs than native-born workers. Migration policies can reinforce this urban concentration pattern.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 16 , Pages 5

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