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Working Paper
The Quality-Adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor
Typical measures of wages, such as average hourly earnings, fail to capture cyclicality in the effective cost of labor in the presence of (i) cyclical fluctuations in the quality of worker-firm matches, or (ii) wages being smoothed within employment matches. To address both concerns, we estimate cyclicality in labor’s user cost exploiting the longrun wage in a match to control for match quality. Using NLSY data for 1980 to 2019, we identify three channels by which hiring in a recession affects user cost: It lowers the new-hire wage; it lowers wages going forward in the match; but it also ...
Working Paper
How Cyclical Is the User Cost of Labor?
In employment relationships, a wage is an installment payment on an implicit long-term agreement between a worker and a firm. The price of labor that impacts firm’s hiring decisions, instead, reflects the hiring wage as well as the impact of economic conditions at the time of hiring on future wages. Measured by the labor’s user cost, the price of labor is substantially more pro-cyclical than the new-hire wage or the average wage. The strong procyclicality of the price of labor calls for other forces for cyclical labor demand to explain employment fluctuations.
Working Paper
Why Firms Lay Off Workers Instead of Cutting Wages: Evidence from Linked Survey-Administrative Data
We use a novel large-scale survey of firms, implemented in Denmark in 2021 and linked to administrative data, to study why firms lay off workers instead of cutting wages. Our questions on layoffs, wage cuts, and the link between them provide new insights into firms’ strategies for adjusting labor in response to adverse shocks. We find that layoffs are more prevalent than wage cuts, but wage cuts are not rare in firms experiencing revenue reduction and were used by 15% of such firms. Employers are hesitant to cut wages in many instances because they see wage cuts as a poor substitute for ...