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Journal Article
Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
Jordà, Òscar; Liu, Celeste; Nechio, Fernanda; Rivera-Reyes, Fabián (2022-09-06)
In a tight labor market, workers are able to respond to price increases by bargaining for higher wages. Analyzing conditions since the pandemic shows that, in the recent environment of elevated inflation and low unemployment, wages have become much more sensitive to expected price inflation than in the past. The impact of inflation expectations on wages also appears to have become longer lasting.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 25 , Pages 6

Discussion Paper
The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share
Audoly, Richard; Guerin, Miles; Narayanan, Srinidhi; Schuh, Rachel (2026-06-24)
The labor share of income in the U.S. is currently at its lowest-ever level in the post-war period. The labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. As such, it is a useful benchmark for wage growth: when the labor share falls, it means that productivity, prices, or both are growing faster than wages. After much-studied drops in the 2000s, the labor share fell sharply again after the COVID pandemic. In this post, we compare the dynamics of the labor share post-COVID to earlier periods to understand whether the recent decline represents the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20260624

Working Paper
Composition-Adjusted Wage Growth: A Robust Measure from Microdata
Honore, Bo E.; Hu, Luojia (2025-07)
Wage growth is a key indicator of labor market conditions, but common measures often conflate individual wage changes with shifts in workforce composition. This paper develops a composition-adjusted measure of wage growth using nonparametric decomposition and program evaluation methods. The adjusted measure tracks unadjusted growth in stable periods but diverges during disruptions: during the Covid-19 pandemic, wage growth falls from 12% to 6% after adjustment. The method accommodates rich covariates, is robust to data quality issues such as rounding, heaping and top-coding, and enables ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2025-14

Working Paper
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2022-08-01)
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-22

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
Silos, Pedro; Fang, Lei (2020-07-13)
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, after an unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage rowth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-09

Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Marks, Cassandra (2026-03-27)
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-004

Working Paper
Search, Matching and Training
Flinn, Christopher J.; Laufer, Steven; Gemici, Ahu (2016-07-13)
We estimate a partial and general equilibrium search model in which firms and workers choose how much time to invest in both general and match-specific human capital. To help identify the model parameters, we use NLSY data on worker training and we match moments that relate the incidence and timing of observed training episodes to outcomes such as wage growth and job-to-job transitions. We use our model to offer a novel interpretation of standard Mincer wage regressions in terms of search frictions and returns to training. Finally, we show how a minimum wage can reduce training opportunities ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-075

The Relationship between Wage Growth and Inflation, One Recession Later
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2022-02-25)
Periods of high inflation generally are periods of low real wage growth. In the aftermath of the pandemic recession, is that still the case?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Cost of Childcare Increasingly Weighs on Labor Force Engagement
McCoy, John (2024-10-09)
Problems attaining childcare have weighed on workers’ engagement in the labor force for some time. Afew years ago, pandemic disruptions were the primary culprit in the lower consumption of childcareservices. Now, the rising cost of childcare may be to blame. As wage growth moderates, higher childcarecosts could place added pressure on households and cause some workers to at least partially disengagefrom the workforce.
Economic Bulletin

Report
Educational Attainment and Wage Growth in New England: Evidence from Four Decades of Administrative Wage Records
Wu, Pinghui; Liu, Annie (2026-01-01)
Per capita personal income in New England grew from $10,731 to $87,655 during the 1980–2024 period. This increase, the largest among all US census divisions, coincided with significant growth in educational attainment in the region. As of 2024, 53 percent of New England workers aged 25 to 64 held at least a bachelor’s degree, and 23 percent possessed advanced degrees, compared with national averages of 44 percent and 17 percent, respectively. This study provides new insights into the relationship between educational attainment and income growth in New England, examining both individual ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 26-1

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