Search Results
Working Paper
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically ...
Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, afteran unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage growth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Journal Article
Rising Immigration Has Helped Cool an Overheated Labor Market
The United States has experienced a substantial influx of immigrants over the past two years. In 2023, net international migration surpassed its pre-pandemic peak. This flow of immigrant workers has acted as a powerful catalyst in cooling overheated labor markets and tempering wage growth across industries and states.
Speech
Wage Dynamics: Theory, Data, and Policy
Slides presented virtually at the National Bureau of Economic Research Spring 2021 Wage Dynamics in the 21st Century Conference, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 21, 2021
Journal Article
Wage Growth, Labor Market Tightness, and Inflation: A Service Sector Analysis
This Economic Commentary explores the connections among labor market tightness, wage inflation, and price inflation at the service sector level. Across most service sectors, sector-specific labor market tightness and nominal wage growth have been above prepandemic averages since 2022. The data suggest that a stronger positive relationship between labor market tightness and wage growth has emerged in the aftermath of the pandemic. The relationship between sector-specific wage growth and inflation is more varied. In the education and health services sector, higher wage growth is associated with ...
Journal Article
Cost of Childcare Increasingly Weighs on Labor Force Engagement
Problems attaining childcare have weighed on workers’ engagement in the labor force for some time. Afew years ago, pandemic disruptions were the primary culprit in the lower consumption of childcareservices. Now, the rising cost of childcare may be to blame. As wage growth moderates, higher childcarecosts could place added pressure on households and cause some workers to at least partially disengagefrom the workforce.
Recent Trends in Individual Wage Growth
Data analysis tracking pay gains among individual workers shows that median wage growth began accelerating in mid-2021 before peaking in mid-2022.
Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, after an unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage rowth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Discussion Paper
A Turning Point in Wage Growth?
The surge in wage growth experienced by the U.S. economy over the past two years is showing some tentative signs of moderation. In this post, we take a closer look at the underlying data by estimating a model designed to isolate the persistent component—or trend—of wage growth. Our central finding is that this trend may have peaked in early 2022, having experienced an earlier rise and subsequent moderation that were broad-based across sectors. We also find that wage growth seems to be moderating more slowly than the trend in services inflation.
Discussion Paper
Are Signs of Labor Market Normalization Reflected in Wage Growth?
There have been two salient features of the U.S. economy in the past two years: a tight labor market and high inflation. In the Richmond Fed business surveys, the tight labor market has manifested in a high employment index combined with a low availability of skills index; high inflation has corresponded with extreme elevation in our survey's measures of growth in prices paid and prices received. Recently, all of these survey measures have either reached or made notable progress toward reaching more historically normal levels. It is hard to imagine, however, a rebalanced labor market or ...