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Working Paper
The Shift to Remote Work Lessens Wage-Growth Pressures
Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil (2022-07-08)
The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of US employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near-term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-7

Discussion Paper
Is Wage Growth Normalizing? What Fifth District Businesses Are Saying About Wages
Kosakow, Jason; Edwards, Zach (2024-02-28)
In the past few years, firms across the nation have reported increased wages due, at least in part, to a supply of labor that cannot keep up with robust demand. Last July, we wrote about how Fifth District firms reported notable acceleration in the growth rates of both realized and expected wages. More recently, wage growth has declined, and a rising share of firms expect their wage growth for 2024 to be "about normal." However, wage growth remains above pre-COVID-19 levels. Our business surveys suggest that wage growth might remain elevated for some time.
Regional Matters

Journal Article
Labor Shortages in the Healthcare Sector Have Eased, Which May Soften Price Pressures
Matschke, Johannes; Pollard, Emily (2024-08-16)
Following severe labor shortages during the post-pandemic recovery, employment and wage growth in the healthcare sector have returned to their pre-pandemic trends. The healthcare sector is labor intensive, and inflation in the sector has historically tracked wage growth. Thus, lower wage growth may limit price pressures in the healthcare sector.
Economic Bulletin

Job Mobility Patterns and Lifetime Earnings Disparities among Male Workers
Ozkan, Serdar; Marks, Cassandra (2023-01-17)
Examining long-term wage growth of male workers, an analysis finds that job mobility can provide insights into the disparities in lifetime earnings distribution.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
A Turning Point in Wage Growth?
Melcangi, Davide; Audoly, Richard; Almuzara, Martín (2023-02-23)
The surge in wage growth experienced by the U.S. economy over the past two years is showing some tentative signs of moderation. In this post, we take a closer look at the underlying data by estimating a model designed to isolate the persistent component—or trend—of wage growth. Our central finding is that this trend may have peaked in early 2022, having experienced an earlier rise and subsequent moderation that were broad-based across sectors. We also find that wage growth seems to be moderating more slowly than the trend in services inflation.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230223

Report
Educational Attainment and Wage Growth in New England: Evidence from Four Decades of Administrative Wage Records
Wu, Pinghui; Liu, Annie (2026-01-01)
Per capita personal income in New England grew from $10,731 to $87,655 during the 1980–2024 period. This increase, the largest among all US census divisions, coincided with significant growth in educational attainment in the region. As of 2024, 53 percent of New England workers aged 25 to 64 held at least a bachelor’s degree, and 23 percent possessed advanced degrees, compared with national averages of 44 percent and 17 percent, respectively. This study provides new insights into the relationship between educational attainment and income growth in New England, examining both individual ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 26-1

Journal Article
Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
Jordà, Òscar; Liu, Celeste; Nechio, Fernanda; Rivera-Reyes, Fabián (2022-09-06)
In a tight labor market, workers are able to respond to price increases by bargaining for higher wages. Analyzing conditions since the pandemic shows that, in the recent environment of elevated inflation and low unemployment, wages have become much more sensitive to expected price inflation than in the past. The impact of inflation expectations on wages also appears to have become longer lasting.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 25 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2022-08-01)
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-22

Working Paper
The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K
Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; Hobijn, Bart; She, Powen; Visschers, Ludo (2014-08-27)
U.K. data from 1993-2012 suggest that in economic downturns a smaller fraction of unemployed workers change their career when starting a new job. The proportion of total hires involving a career change also drops. This implies that career changes decline during recessions. The results indicate that recessions are times of subdued reallocation rather than of accelerated and involuntary structural transformation.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-21

Speech
Wage Dynamics: Theory, Data, and Policy
Daly, Mary C. (2021-05-21)
Slides presented virtually at the National Bureau of Economic Research Spring 2021 Wage Dynamics in the 21st Century Conference, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 21, 2021
Speech

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