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Report
The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment
The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of foregone public benefits and the foregone value of non-working time in units of consumption. We construct a time series of the opportunity cost of employment using detailed microdata and administrative or national accounts data to estimate benefit levels, eligibility and take-up of benefits, consumption by labor force status, hours per worker, taxes, and preference parameters. Our estimated opportunity cost is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment ...
Working Paper
High Discounts and Low Fundamental Surplus: An Equivalence Result for Unemployment Fluctuations
Ljungqvist and Sargent (2017) (LS) show that unemployment fluctuations can be understoodin terms of a quantity they call the “fundamental surplus.” However, their analysis ignores riskpremia, a force that Hall (2017) shows is important in understanding unemployment fluctuations. Weshow how the LS framework can be adapted to incorporate risk premia. We derive an equivalenceresult that relates parameters in economies with risk premia to those of an artificial economy withoutrisk premia. We show how to use properties of the artificial economy to deduce how risk premia affectunemployment ...