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Speech
Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality
Daly, Mary C. (2024-06-24)
Speech to Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, San Francisco, CA, June 24, 2024, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
Reducing unemployment: current issues and policy options: a summary of the Bank's 1994 symposium
Higgins, Bryon (1994-10)
Reducing unemployment has become a top priority for economic policy in most industrialized nations. While unemployment will ebb somewhat as countries recover from the recent global recession, millions are likely to remain jobless for a variety of structural reasons. Moreover, there is a disturbing trend in many industrialized countries toward long-term unemployment, especially among low-skilled workers. This trend has had less effect on measured unemployment in the United States than in Europe in part because U.S. workers have greater incentives to accept low-wage jobs. Nonetheless, virtually ...
Economic Review , Volume 79 , Issue Q IV , Pages 45-58

Journal Article
Assessing Labor Market Conditions Using High-Frequency Data
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Isaacson, Maggie (2021-10-18)
When the COVID-19 pandemic struck in March 2020, the U.S. economy experienced a sharp, unexpected recession with large employment losses. The information on employment available from traditional data sources arrives with a lag and does not promptly reflect sudden changes in labor market conditions. In this article, we discuss how new high-frequency data from Homebase and Ultimate Kronos Group can offer critical information on the state of labor markets in real time. Using these datasets, we construct coincident employment indices to assess employment at a high frequency. Employment during the ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 461-476

Working Paper
Labor Market Tightness during WWI and the Postwar Recession of 1920-1921
Anderson, Haelim; Chang, Jin-Wook (2022-08-01)
The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the Federal Reserve's discount rate hikes to tame inflation. Using a newly constructed data set, we study labor market dynamics during this period. We find that labor markets were tight when the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, but they became loose following the tightening as the recession deepened. The demand-supply imbalance in the labor market was driven by a sharp decline in the number of job openings. We also show that the recession had an uneven effect on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-049

Newsletter
Housing Markets in a Time of Crisis: A Historical Perspective
Fishback, Price; Snowden, Kenneth A.; Rose, Jonathan D. (2020)
As the coronavirus (Covid-19) public health crisis unfolds, a second crisis in the economy is developing as well. One economic concern, among many, is the debt burden of households. Early reports point to a surge in unemployment claims during March 2020, raising the prospect that widespread unemployment is likely to impair the ability of households to make payments on their home mortgages and other loans in the months ahead. This represents a potential crisis in mortgage markets, as borrowers who are temporarily unemployed—but for an unknown period—may face default on their mortgages.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 433

Working Paper
Worker flows and job flows: a quantitative investigation
Fujita, Shigeru; Nakajima, Makoto (2013)
This paper studies the quantitative properties of a multiple-worker firm matching model with on-the-job search where heterogeneous firms operate decreasing-returns-to-scale production technology. We focus on the model's ability to replicate the business cycle features of job flows, worker flows between employment and unemployment, and job-to-job transitions. The calibrated model successfully replicates (i) countercyclical worker flows between employment and unemployment, (ii) procyclical job-to-job transitions, and (iii) opposite movements of job creation and destruction rates over the ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-09

Working Paper
Some Like It Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy
Moore, Robert E.; Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2018-06-01)
This paper explores evidence for positive hysteresis in the labor market. Using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, we find that negative labor market outcomes during high unemployment periods are mitigated by exposure to a high-pressure economy during the preceding expansion. Breaking total exposure into intensity and duration suggests that these two dimensions have differing impacts. However, the benefits of exposure are not enough to overcome the greater negative impact of high unemployment periods on labor market outcomes of disadvantaged groups, making extension of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-1

Labor Force Exits and COVID-19: Who Left, and Are They Coming Back?
Gregory, Victoria; Steinberg, Joel (2021-10-04)
Millions of workers are still unemployed or have dropped out of the labor force. What is the likelihood that these people will return to work in the coming year?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Space and time in macroeconomic panel data: young workers and state-level unemployment revisited
Foote, Christopher L. (2007)
A provocative paper by Shimer (2001) finds that state-level youth shares and unemployment rates are negatively correlated, in contrast to conventional assumptions about demographic effects on labor markets. This paper updates Shimer's regressions and shows that this surprising correlation essentially disappears when the end of the sample period is extended from 1996 to 2005. This shift does not occur because of a change in the underlying economy during the past decade. Rather, the presence of a cross-sectional (that is, spatial) correlation in the state-level data sharply reduces the ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-10

Working Paper
Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Systematic Monetary Policy
Gornemann, Nils; Kuester, Keith; Nakajima, Makoto (2021-06-29)
We build a New Keynesian business-cycle model with rich household heterogeneity. In the model, systematic monetary stabilization policy affects the distribution of income, income risks, and the demand for funds and supply of assets: the demand, because matching frictions render idiosyncratic labor-market risk endogenous; the supply, because markups, adjustment costs, and the tax system mean that the average profitability of firms is endogenous. Disagreement about systematic monetary stabilization policy is pronounced. The wealth-rich or retired tend to favor inflation targeting. The ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 50

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