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Newsletter
How much of the decline in unemployment is due to the exhaustion of unemployment benefits?
Schechter, Shani; Hu, Luojia (2011-07)
Prior studies have examined the impact of extended unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on the rise in the unemployment rate in this recession and early recovery. We use real-time microdata from the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Current Population Survey (CPS) to examine whether there has been a reverse effect recently as benefits have been exhausted. We find that if UI benefits had lasted indefinitely, the unemployment rate would have been cumulatively about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points higher between October 2009 and January 2011, which represents about 10% to 25% of the decline in the actual ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue July

Briefing
Cyclical versus secular: decomposing the recent decline in U.S. labor force participation
Olivei, Giovanni P.; Barnes, Michelle L.; Gumbau-Brisa, Fabia (2013)
Since the start of the Great Recession, one of the most striking developments in the U.S. labor market has been the pronounced decline in the labor force participation rate. The crucial issue in interpreting the decline in U.S. labor force participation is how much of the decline reflects cyclical factors and how much reflects more persistent developments such as the demographic effects of an aging population. We provide a decomposition of cyclical versus trend movements in the labor force participation rate, informed by the joint dynamics of this variable with the employment-to-population ...
Public Policy Brief

Journal Article
Discouraged and other marginally attached workers: evidence on their role in the labor market
Kodrzycki, Yolanda (2000-05)
The combination of very low unemployment rates and somewhat limited wage and salary pressures has called into question our ability to measure labor market tightness. One issue is the extent to which labor availability is understated, given the existence of people who are not actively looking for work but express interest in working. This note examines the evidence on discouraged and other marginally attached workers. ; The author concludes that the number of discouraged and other marginally attached workers is extremely low, and their inclusion in an expanded measure of unemployment is ...
New England Economic Review , Issue May , Pages 35-40

Journal Article
If you lost your job …
Clement, Douglas (2006-06)
Intuition and conventional economic models suggest that unemployment benefits should decline over time to induce unemployed workers to seek jobs.
The Region , Volume 20 , Issue Jun , Pages 34-37, 50-53

Report
Shifts in the Beveridge curve
Sahin, Aysegul; Diamond, Peter A. (2014-08-01)
This note puts the current shift in the Beveridge curve into context by examining the behavior of the curve since 1950. Outward shifts in the Beveridge curve have been common occurrences during U.S. recoveries. By itself, the presence of a shift has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or lower than that in the preceding expansion.
Staff Reports , Paper 687

Journal Article
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
Higgins, Patrick C. (2021-09-09)
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 11 , Pages 20

Newsletter
Cross-state evidence on the relationship between unemployment and wage growth
Aaronson, Daniel; Sullivan, Daniel G. (2001-05)
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

Discussion Paper
Comparisons of alternative identification schemes for the U.S. real GNP- unemployment level correlation: sensitivity analysis
Aoki, Masanao (1989)
The paper employs three different types of identifying restrictions to calculate the impulse responses for the trivariate series composed of the U.S. unemployment level, real GNP and the money stock. The first two are the zero restrictions, arising from the assumption of the delayed information pattern available in forming a money reaction function. The third assumes a particular simplified structural model. The paper shows that the impulse response patterns are generally insensitive to these alternative specifications. Similar exercises are carried out for the bivariate series composed of ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 21

Working Paper
Job Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations
Krolikowski, Pawel (2019-02-01)
This paper disciplines a model with search over match quality using microeconomic evidence on worker mobility patterns and wage dynamics. In addition to capturing these individual data, the model provides an explanation for aggregate labor market patterns. Poor match quality among first jobs implies large fluctuations in unemployment due to a responsive job destruction margin. Endogenous job destruction generates a burst of layoffs at the onset of a recession and, together with on-the-job search, generates a negative comovement between unemployment and vacancies. A significant job ladder, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-04

Newsletter
Explaining Variation in Real Wage Growth Over the Recent Expansion
Hu, Luojia; Aaronson, Daniel; Rajan, Aastha (2019)
In August 2019 the unemployment rate was roughly 1 percentage point below the Congressional Budget Office?s (CBO) estimate of its long-run or natural rate, nearly matching the unemployment rate gap that developed during the historically tight labor market of the late 1990s. Nevertheless, real wage growth remains well below its pace of the late 1990s and even that of the milder 2000s expansion.
Chicago Fed Letter

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