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Briefing
Authorization to Work: The Prevalence of Occupational Licensing in New England
Jackson, Osborne; Sexton, Matthew (2024-10-02)
Proponents of occupational licensing—a policy that requires workers to obtain a government-awarded credential before they can legally practice certain professions—argue that it can reduce safety risks to consumers and improve the general quality of goods and services. Opponents argue that, given the mixed evidence of the policy’s benefits to consumers, it may needlessly impede workers’ ability to enter some professions. This Regional Brief examines the prevalence of occupational licensing in New England and considers the implications for the region’s labor markets and product ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2024-4

Journal Article
Which Jobs Have Been Hit Hardest by COVID-19?
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2020-08-17)
Between mid-March and the end of April, U.S. unemployment rolls rose quickly to 33 million, while the unemployment rate jumped to almost 15%.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 3

Working Paper
Digital Adoption, Automation, and Labor Markets in Developing and Emerging Economies
Shapiro, Alan Finkelstein; Mandelman, Federico S. (2019-12-02)
We document a strong negative link between self-employment and the rate of digital adoption by firms in developing and emerging economies. No link between digital adoption and the unemployment rate is found, however. To explain this evidence, we build a general equilibrium search-and-matching model with endogenous labor force participation, self-employment, endogenous firm entry, and information-and-communications technology adoption. The main finding is that changes in the cost of technology adoption per se cannot rationalize the evidence. Instead, changes in firms' barriers to entry ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-22

Briefing
Why Do Long-Term Unemployed Workers Struggle to Find New Jobs?
Borovickova, Katrina (2023-04)
The job finding probabilities of workers who just lost their jobs are higher than for those who have been unemployed for several months. There are two broad reasons why this is the case: Either the job finding probabilities of workers decrease with unemployment duration, or workers differ in how quickly they can find jobs. Using an economic model and Austrian social security data on unemployment duration of workers, we estimate the importance of these two channels. We find that the latter is more important, especially in explaining a sharp decline in the job finding probability during the ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 10

Newsletter
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2017 Results and 2018 Forecasts
Strauss, William A.; Haasl , Thomas (2018)
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace slightly above average in 2018, with inflation moving up a little and the unemployment rate remaining low.
Chicago Fed Letter

Early Impact of States Halting Federal Jobless Benefits
Dupor, Bill (2021-07-13)
Continuing claims for state unemployment insurance benefits appear to have fallen faster in states that have stopped accepting federal pandemic benefits.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States
Fallick, Bruce; Foote, Christopher L. (2022-10-01)
Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a “shift-share” method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population—the focus of most previous work—and extend the date range of analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-15

Working Paper
Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims
Seo, Boyoung; Butters, R. Andrew; Aaronson, Daniel; Brave, Scott A.; Sacks, Daniel (2020-04-16)
We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic “unemployment,” we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-10

Journal Article
Expanded Unemployment Programs Likely Slowed the Decline in Unemployment Claims During the Pandemic Recovery
Michaud, Amanda M. (2021-08-24)
The typical Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claimant claimed 9.5 to 11.5 more weeks of benefit payments than an individual claiming through regular state programs.
Economic Synopses , Issue 20 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
A few examples of Chicago tackling youth joblessness
O'Dell, Mark; Keller, Jason; Engel, Emily (2018)
Many young people nationwide are undereducated, jobless, and living in poverty with no job prospects; in urban areas particularly, they face a continuing cycle of unemployment, in addition to substandard and often dangerous neighborhood conditions. Using greater Chicagoland (including the city and Cook County) as a case study, this article will highlight how capital and resources from the private sector, namely loans, investments, and services from regulated financial institutions (e.g., banks) could foster greater economic and community development, especially for underserved and at-risk ...
Profitwise , Issue 5 , Pages 1-10

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