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Working Paper
The Determinants of Mortgage Denial Using Public Data
We analyze over 30 million home purchase mortgage applications from 2018-2024 using publicly available Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to study the determinants of mortgage denial. We establish three primary findings. First, credit access is highly sensitive to monetary policy; the 2022-2023 tightening drove aggregate denial rates from 12.2% to 15.7% via the debt-to-income (DTI) channel. Second, we identify a critical nonlinearity in underwriting: While the 43% qualified mortgage (QM) threshold---below which lenders receive legal safe harbor from ability-to-repay claims---is ...
Working Paper
What Do Lead Banks Learn from Leveraged Loan Investors?
In leveraged loan deals, lead banks use bookbuilding to extract price-relevant information from syndicate participants. This paper examines the content of such information. We find that pricing adjustments during bookbuilding are highly informative, not only about investors’ required risk premium but also about borrower quality. A one-percentage-point increase in loan spread predicts a 0.8% higher excess return, a proxy for risk premium, over the first 3 months of secondary market trading. More importantly, it also predicts a 3% higher probability of subsequent default, implying that ...
Newsletter
Promise and Peril: Managing the Uncertainty of Rapid Innovation and a Changing Economy
The Chicago Fed?s Supervision and Regulation Department and DePaul University?s Center for Financial Services held their tenth annual risk conference on March 29?30, 2017. The conference brought together financial industry professionals, academics, and regulators to discuss the rapid pace of technological innovation in financial services, as well as the uncertainty of the changing economy through the lens of risk management.