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Speech
Making globalization work: remarks at the Central Bank of Brazil, São Paulo, Brazil
Remarks at the Central Bank of Brazil, So Paulo, Brazil.
Journal Article
Will Tech Improvements for Trading Services Switch the U.S. into a Net Exporter?
Innovations gave the U.S. a trade advantage in goods many years ago. Can innovations do the same for trade in services for the U.S.?
Trade and U.S. Gold Reserves during the Classical Gold Standard Era
During the period from around 1870 to the outbreak of World War I, changes in a nation’s gold reserves were closely linked to changes in its trade balances.
Technological Innovations and Global Trade of Services
Technological innovations may give the U.S. a significant advantage in the global trade of services, which could potentially help the U.S. close its trade deficit.
Discussion Paper
Is the United States Relying on Foreign Investors to Fund Its Larger Budget Deficit?
The federal tax cut and the increase in federal spending at the beginning of 2018 substantially increased the government deficit, requiring a jump in the amount of Treasury securities needed to fund the gap. One question is whether the government will have to rely on foreign investors to buy these securities. Data for the first half of 2018 are available and, so far, the country has not had to increase the pace of borrowing from abroad. The current account balance, which measures how much the United States borrows from the rest of the world, has been essentially unchanged. Instead, the tax ...
Discussion Paper
Recycling Oil Revenue
Almost half the U.S. merchandise trade deficit was tied to petroleum ten years ago. Oil prices were above $100 a barrel, the economy was doing well enough that oil consumption was growing despite high oil prices, and domestic oil production was falling. The U.S. petroleum trade balance has since narrowed substantially from $400 billion in 2008 to under $65 billion in 2017 as a result of lower oil prices, higher domestic production, and a prolonged period of flat-to-falling petroleum consumption. Going forward, the changes in domestic production and consumption have significantly moderated the ...
Shifts in U.S. Trade Balance and Industrialization
As the U.S. has industrialized, changes in comparative advantage relative to those of other nations have led to periods of persistent trade surpluses and deficits.
Working Paper
Equilibrium Sovereign Default with Exchange Rate Depreciation
This study proposes and quantitatively assesses a terms-of-trade penalty for defaulting: defaulters must exchange more of their own goods for imports, which causes an adjustment to the equilibrium exchange rate. This penalty can take the place of an ad hoc fall in output: Facing only this penalty and temporary exclusion from debt markets, countries are willing to maintain borrowing obligations up to a realistic level of debt. The terms-of-trade penalty is consistent with the observed relationship between sovereign default and a country's trade flows and prices. The defaulter's currency ...
The Role of Innovations in Global Trade: The Shipping Container
A simple trade innovation—the use of shipping containers—may have contributed to the rapid expansion of global trade over the past 50 years.
Trade and Gold Reserves after the Demise of the Classical Gold Standard
After the early 1920s, the relationship between gold reserves and trade flows was tenuous at best as the international payments system experienced heightened uncertainty and significant change.