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Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel (2016-12-23)
We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it takes time and expense for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1635

Speech
Trade and Training
Harker, Patrick T. (2017-06-27)
"Trade fosters peace and cooperation? among nations, said Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker in a June 27 speech to the European Economics and Financial Centre in London, UK. But he said help should be given to the workers and industries that are negatively affected by trade
Speech , Paper 139

Working Paper
Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata
Monarch, Ryan; Park, Jooyoun; Sivadasan, Jagadeesh (2014-11-11)
We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1124

Working Paper
The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Plante, Michael D.; Cakir Melek, Nida; Yücel, Mine K. (2017-09-04)
This paper examines the effects of the U.S. shale oil boom in a two-country DSGE model where countries produce crude oil, refined oil products, and a non-oil good. The model incorporates different types of crude oil that are imperfect substitutes for each other as inputs into the refining sector. The model is calibrated to match oil market and macroeconomic data for the U.S. and the rest of the world (ROW). We investigate the implications of a significant increase in U.S. light crude oil production similar to the shale oil boom. Consistent with the data, our model predicts that light oil ...
Working Papers , Paper 1708

Discussion Paper
How Did China’s COVID-19 Shutdown Affect U.S. Supply Chains?
Heise, Sebastian (2020-05-12)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on trade between the United States and China so far. As workers became sick or were quarantined, factories temporarily closed, disrupting international supply chains. At the same time, the trade relationship between the United States and China has been characterized by rising protectionism and heightened trade policy uncertainty over the last few years. Against this background, this post examines how the recent period of economic disruptions in China has affected U.S. imports and discusses how this episode might impact firms’ supply chains ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200512

Technological Innovations and Global Trade of Services
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Sun, Qiuhan (2020-12-29)
Technological innovations may give the U.S. a significant advantage in the global trade of services, which could potentially help the U.S. close its trade deficit.
On the Economy

Speech
Understanding the evolving relationship between the United States and Mexico
Coronado, Roberto (2024-04-12)
Dallas Fed Senior Vice President Roberto Coronado delivered these remarks at the Western Hemispheric Trade Center Annual Conference at Texas A&M International University in Laredo.
Speeches and Essays

Journal Article
Supply Chain Disruptions, Trade Costs, and Labor Markets
Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés; Ulate, Mauricio; Vasquez, Jose P. (2023-01-19)
Global supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic have increased the costs of trade between countries. Given the interconnectedness of the U.S. economy with the rest of the world, higher trade costs can have important impacts on U.S. labor markets. A model of the U.S. economy that incorporates variation in industry concentrations across regions can help quantify these effects. The analysis suggests that recent global supply disruptions could cause a sizable and persistent reduction in labor force participation.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 02 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Inefficiency in a Simple Model of Production and Bilateral Trade
Sultanum, Bruno; Bethune, Zachary; Trachter, Nicholas (2018-07)
We study a simple model of over-the-counter trade with production. We characterize the equilibrium, and we show that the equilibrium is always inefficient, independent of how the trade surplus is split among trade participants. We argue that this is due to a double hold-up problem that it is at the core of models used to study trade in over-the-counter markets. Finally, we show an example, which we interpret as a limiting case of the general model where the inefficiency vanishes.
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 137-151

Report
Import competition and household debt
Barrot, Jean-Noël; Loualiche, Erik; Plosser, Matthew; Sauvagnat, Julien (2017-08-15)
We analyze the effect of import competition on household balance sheets from 2000 to 2007 using individual data on consumer finances. We exploit variation in exposure to foreign competition using industry-level shipping costs and initial differences in regions? industry specialization. We show that household debt increased significantly in regions where manufacturing industries are more exposed to import competition. A one standard deviation increase in exposure to import competition explains 30 percent of the cross-regional variation in household leverage growth, and is mostly driven by home ...
Staff Reports , Paper 821

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