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Journal Article
Tariffs and Consumer Prices: Insights from Newly Matched Consumption-Trade Micro Data
Pringle, KC; Fuchs, Simon; Sparks, Michael; Baslandze, Salomé (2025-02-28)
We evaluate the impact of various US tariff scenarios on consumer prices using novel micro-level data linking imports to consumer expenditures. Results indicate that an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10 percent tariff on other countries could raise consumer prices on everyday retail purchases, such as food and beverage items and general merchandise, covering about a quarter of the total consumption basket, by 0.81 percent to 1.63 percent, assuming half to full pass-through. Notably, tariffs on Canada and Mexico ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2025 , Issue 1 , Pages 17

China manufacturing overcapacity boosts output, stagnation fears
Kelly, Brendan; Davis, J. Scott (2025-12-30)
Nearly 30 percent of China's industrial firms operate at a loss, up from 20 percent before the pandemic. The question arises: How can this be sustained?
Dallas Fed Economics

Mexico gains from U.S.-China trade war; inefficiencies limit benefit
Torres, Luis; Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M.; Morales-Burnett, Diego (2026-05-12)
A sequence of major economic and geopolitical events has reshaped the structure of global trade in the past decade. It began with U.S. imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. The postpandemic followed with widespread disruption to global value chains—the process of manufacturing a product in stages across several countries.
Dallas Fed Economics

Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk
Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M.; Aanenson, Tryg (2026-06-02)
A pair of important and opposing trade shocks hit the U.S. economy during the first quarter of 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a portion of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision on Feb. 20 lowered average U.S. import tariffs by roughly 4.8 percentage points.
Dallas Fed Economics

How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shock
Mau, Ron; Martínez García, Enrique (2026-08-04)
Despite regional sourcing and compliance costs, USMCA-based firms enjoy an edge over competitors outside North America facing higher U.S. tariffs.
Dallas Fed Economics

Trade diversion has helped ease the impact of the embargo on Russian oil
Patel, Kunal; Kilian, Lutz (2023-02-21)
Much has been made about the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the price of oil. However, the price of oil was already drifting upward well before the invasion in late February 2022.
Dallas Fed Economics

Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold
Zlate, Andrei; Davis, J. Scott (2023-03-07)
Fluctuations in the global financial cycle, reflecting impacts from the COVID crisis, account for roughly one-third of the movement in emerging-market inflows during 2020–23.
Dallas Fed Economics

Mexico seeks to solidify rank as top U.S. trade partner, push further past China
Torres, Luis (2023-07-11)
Mexico's emergence followed fractious U.S. relations with China, which had moved past Canada to claim the top trading spot in 2014. The dynamic changed in 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on China’s goods and with subsequent pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions that altered international trade and investment flows worldwide.
Dallas Fed Economics

Mexican peso strength noteworthy among emerging markets during Fed tightening
Torres, Luis; Cañas, Jesus; Sagnanert, Pon (2023-09-26)
Many emerging-market currencies have depreciated modestly during the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle that began in March 2022. The Mexican peso, however, outperformed the group during the period.
Dallas Fed Economics

Russian ruble buckles under trade sanctions, declining export earnings
Patel, Kunal; Davis, J. Scott (2023-10-10)
Russia’s currency is losing value, falling 40 percent against the U.S. dollar since December 2022. With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness.
Dallas Fed Economics

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