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Report
Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers
Foreign investors’ changing appetite for risk-taking has been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of uncovered interest parity (UIP) premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes transmit across borders, we propose a two-country macroeconomic framework. Our model features cross-border holdings of risky assets by U.S. financial intermediaries that operate under financial frictions and act as global intermediaries in that they take on foreign asset risk. In ...
Working Paper
Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations
This paper seeks to understand the general equilibrium effects of time-varying geopolitical risk in oil markets. Answering this question requires simultaneously modeling several features including macroeconomic disasters and geopolitically driven oil production disasters, oil storage and precautionary savings, and the endogenous determination of uncertainty about output and the price of oil. We find that oil price uncertainty tends to be driven by macroeconomic uncertainty. Shifts in the probability of a geopolitically driven major oil supply disruption have meaningful effects on the price of ...
Report
Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers
Foreign investors’ changing appetite for risk-taking has been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of uncovered interest parity (UIP) premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes transmit across borders, we propose a two-country macroeconomic framework. Our model features cross-border holdings of risky assets by U.S. financial intermediaries that operate under financial frictions and act as global intermediaries in that they take on foreign asset risk. In ...