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Working Paper
Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time
US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This paper develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: 1) an explicit model of the data revision process ...
Working Paper
Decomposition of feedback between time series in a bivariate error-correction model
This paper adapts Geweke's [1982] method of decomposing the feedback between time series by frequency to the case of 1(1) time series generated by a bivariate error-correction model. The method is applied to long-run data on US and UK price levels with the finding that most of the feedback between the two time series occurs at very low frequencies.