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Speech
Money markets and monetary policy normalization
Remarks at the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Learning from Experience: Why Nations May Have Responded Differently to COVID-19
Countries affected by the SARS pandemic in 2002-03 appear to have responded to COVID-19 more quickly and effectively with tests and mobility restrictions.
Working Paper
Pandemic Recessions and Contact Tracing
We study contact tracing in a new macro-epidemiological model in which infected agents may not show any symptoms of the disease and the availability of tests to detect these asymptomatic spreaders of the virus is limited. Contact tracing is a testing strategy aiming at reconstructing the infection chain of newly symptomatic agents. A coordination failure arises as agents fail to internalize that their individual consumption and labor decisions raise the number of traceable contacts to be tested, threatening the viability of the tracing system. The collapse of the tracing system considerably ...
Discussion Paper
Impacts of COVID-19: Mitigation Efforts versus Herd Immunity
The rapid spread of COVID-19 is having devastating effects on the global economy. With death curves beginning to bend, governments will soon need to determine when and how to relax lockdown measures. The crucial question is: what are the public health consequences of reopening the economy? In this article, we argue that the observed decline in daily deaths could be due to two scenarios: social distancing measures and herd immunity. Both the widely used SIR model and the data collected thus far cannot distinguish these two scenarios. Such an identiļ¬cation problem generates a large degree of ...
Journal Article
Impacts of COVID-19: Mitigation Efforts versus Herd Immunity
The rapid spread of COVID-19 is having devastating effects on the global economy. Governments around the world have been forced to pursue lockdown policies in an attempt to stem the spread of this deadly disease and bend the death curve. With death curves beginning to bend, governments will soon need to determine when and how to relax lockdown measures. The crucial question is: what are the consequences of reopening the economy? In this article, we address this question by studying both the model and the data and discuss the challenges we face moving forward.