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Working Paper
Why are semiconductor prices falling so fast? Industry estimates and implications for productivity measurement
By any measure, price deflators for semiconductors fell at a staggering pace over much of the last decade. These rapid declines are typically attributed to technological innovations that lower constant-quality manufacturing costs. But, given Intel's dominance in the microprocessor market, those price declines may also reflect changes in Intel's profit margins. Disaggregate data on Intel's operations are used to explore these issues. There are three basic findings. First, the industry data show that Intel's markups from its microprocessor segment shrank substantially from 1993-99. Second, ...
Working Paper
State Incentives for Innovation, Star Scientists and Jobs: Evidence from Biotech
We evaluate the effects of state-provided financial incentives for biotech companies, which are part of a growing trend of placed-based policies designed to spur innovation clusters. We estimate that the adoption of subsidies for biotech employers by a state raises the number of star biotech scientists in that state by about 15 percent over a three year period. A 10% decline in the user cost of capital induced by an increase in R&D tax incentives raises the number of stars by 22%. Most of the gains are due to the relocation of star scientist to adopting states, with limited effect on the ...
Report
Specialization and the skill premium in the 20th century
The skill premium fell substantially in the first part of the 20th century, and then rose at the end of the century. I argue that these changes are connected to the organization of production. When production is organized into large plants, jobs become routinized, favoring less skilled workers. Building on the notion that numerically controlled machines made capital more ?flexible? at the end of the century, the model allows for changes in the ability of capital to do a wide variety of tasks. When calibrated to data on the distribution of plant sizes, the model can account for between half ...
Working Paper
Do uncertainty and technology drive exchange rates?
This paper investigates the extent to which technology and uncertainty contribute to fluctuations in real exchange rates. Using a structural VAR and bilateral exchange rates, the author finds that neutral technology shocks are important contributors to the dynamics of real exchange rates. Investment-specific and uncertainty shocks have a more restricted effect on international prices. All three disturbances cause short-run deviations from uncovered interest rate parity.
Report
Factor saving innovation
We study a simple model of factor saving technological innovation in a concave framework. Capital can be used either to reproduce itself or, at additional cost, to produce a higher quality of capital that requires less labor input. If higher quality capital can be produced quickly, we get a model of exogenous balanced growth as a special case. If, however, higher quality capital can be produced slowly, we get a model of endogenous growth in which the growth rate of the economy and the rate of adoption of new technologies are determined by preferences, technology, and initial conditions. ...
Speech
Asset bubbles and the implications for central bank policy
Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Journal Article
How much U.S. technological innovation begins in universities?
Technological progress has been the key to improved living standards, but how and where do new ideas get their start? The answer might give us some insight into how we can support greater innovation. Some suggest universities have been an important source of innovative technology. A look at the people involved in the development of patented technologies can give an idea of how much innovation originates in universities.
Journal Article
Intellectual property protection in a globalizing era
Speech
In the lap of the gods
Remarks at the Greater Dallas Chamber Annual State of Technology Luncheon, Dallas, Texas, October 2, 2007. ; "We live in a time when it is fashionable to look at all glasses as half full. Chicken Little rules the roost of economic prognostication. The innovators in this room know differently."
Journal Article
The globalization of ideas
Globalization is the process of increasing economic interdependence among nations. It is reflected in the growth of cross-border trade in goods and services. Ideas, like goods and services, also flow across borders and their globalization is well under way. ; Quantifying that flow is difficult; however, patent filings can provide indirect evidence on the production of ideas. Further, cross-border patenting--the patenting of one idea in several countries--can help trace the flow of ideas. What we learn from those data is that idea production has taken off in the developing BRIC economies ...