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Journal Article
Did Importers Try to Front-Run Recent Tariffs on China?
Cook, Thomas R.; Dzholos, Mariia (2025-01-17)
Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Sectoral Impacts of Trade Wars
Wang, Ping; Cheng, Wan-Jung (2022)
In recent years, we have witnessed rising trade protectionism with broad ranges of tariffs imposed on intermediate products. In this article, we develop an accounting framework to evaluate the sectoral impacts of the current U.S.-China trade war. We find that U.S. final demand and intermediate demand for goods produced by China decline significantly, with the largest losses occurring in the Electronic and ICT (information and communications technology) industry and the Electrical industry. We obtain sizable deadweight losses for the United States, particularly in the Electronic and ICT; ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 1 , Pages 17-40

Discussion Paper
New China Tariffs Increase Costs to U.S. Households
Amiti, Mary; Weinstein, David E.; Redding, Stephen J. (2019-05-23)
Tariffs on $200 billion of U.S. imports from China subject to earlier 10 percent levies increased to 25 percent beginning May 10, 2019, after a breakdown in trade negotiations. In this post, we consider the cost of these higher tariffs to the typical U.S. household.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190523

Discussion Paper
Do Import Tariffs Help Reduce Trade Deficits?
Amiti, Mary; Feenstra, Robert C.; Romalis, John; Dai, Mi (2018-08-13)
Import tariffs are on the rise in the United States, with a long list of new tariffs imposed in the last few months—25 percent on steel imports, 10 percent on aluminum, and 25 percent on $50 billion of goods from China—and possibly more to come. One of the objectives of these new tariffs is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, which stood at $568.4 billion in 2017 (2.9 percent of GDP). The fact that the United States imports far more than it exports is viewed by some as unfair, so the idea is to try to reduce the amount that the nation imports from the rest of the world. While more costly ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180813

Speech
Supply Factors and the Evolution of the Economy
Collins, Susan M. (2025-04-10)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan M. Collins delivered the 2025 Razin Economic Policy Lecture on “Supply Factors and the Evolution of the Economy” at Georgetown University. President Collins says her outlook for both economic activity and inflation remains clouded by significant uncertainty, as well as competing risks. She notes supply-side factors have been underappreciated in “understanding how the economy has evolved,” which is “critical for assessing its likely trajectory.” Looking ahead, President Collins expects supply factors will continue to play a key ...
Speech

U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses
Martínez García, Enrique; Sposi, Michael (2025-05-13)
U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously. Modern models applied to the U.S. reveal that tariffs can enhance consumer welfare via terms-of-trade gains, a costly externality on foreign partners, but only if those partners don’t retaliate. Thus, potential consumption gains for U.S. households and businesses depend on policy choices and strategic responses from trading partners.
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
Policy Panel Opening Remarks at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-05-09)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participated in a panel at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges. He shared his views on monetary policy in his opening remarks at the event in Stanford, Calif.The panel also included Isabel Schnabel, member of the European Central Bank’s Executive Board; Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; and Lisa Cook, member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The panel was moderated by Peter Henry of the Hoover Institution.
Speech

Discussion Paper
Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China?
Nattinger, Michael; Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-11-25)
Tariffs are a form of taxation. Indeed, before the 1920s, tariffs (or customs duties) were typically the largest source of funding for the U.S. government. Of little interest for decades, tariffs are again becoming relevant, given the substantial increase in the rates charged on imports from China. U.S. businesses and consumers are shielded from the higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower the dollar prices they charge. U.S. import price data, however, indicate that prices on goods from China have so far not fallen. As a result, U.S. wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191125

Briefing
Tariff Update: Incorporating the April 9 Announcements
Azzimonti-Renzo, Marina; Edwards, Zach; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Wyckoff, Acacia (2025-04-16)
This article updates our previous analysis covering the potential effects of announced tariffs by the U.S. As the analysis is quite similar to our previous analysis, much of the text of the article is drawn from the previous article.In our April 2 article examining recent tariff announcements, we constructed a benchmark measure of the average effective tariff rate (AETR) based on detailed trade data for 2024. The analysis quantified the fiscal and trade effects of newly proposed tariffs through a series of counterfactual scenarios. These included tariffs on aluminum and steel, renewed duties ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 15

Journal Article
Tariffs and Trade Disputes
Sablik, Timothy (2018-04)
Cover Story of article on "Tariffs and Trade Disputes: How are recent moves affecting businesses in the Fifth District?"
Econ Focus , Issue 2Q , Pages 10-13

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