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Working Paper
On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs
Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon (2023-02-13)
We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the US and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1 percent reduction in consumption. Much larger welfare losses are concentrated among retirees and low-wealth households, while only wealthy ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-18R2

Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026
Mau, Ron; Smith, Tucker (2026-05-05)
We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-05-20)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the economic outlook and implications for monetary policy at an Economic Club of Minnesota event in Minneapolis. He gave a speech, “Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a moderated Q&A.
Speech

Journal Article
Import Tariffs and Illegal Immigration: A Strategic Analysis
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Pinto, Santiago (2026-06-24)
We examine the effects of tariffs in a two-country specific-factors model with endogenous illegal immigration. While tariffs generate the usual terms-of-trade gains in goods markets for the host country, they also raise wages and attract additional illegal immigration. Increased immigration-related costs and higher wage costs of hiring immigrants may reduce the welfare of citizens of the host country. We also show that within the context of our two-nation framework, free trade need not maximize joint welfare when illegal immigration and certain immigration-related costs are present. Finally, ...
Review , Volume 108 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-12

Discussion Paper
A Country‑Specific View of Tariffs
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2025-10-06)
U.S. trade policy remains in flux. Nevertheless, important elements of the new policy regime are apparent in data through July. What stands out are the large differences in realized tariff rates by trading partner, ranging from less than 5 percent for Canada and Mexico to 15 percent for Japan and to 40 percent for China. This post shows that the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20251006

Journal Article
US Barriers to International Trade of Goods: Tariffs and Non-Tariff Measures
Leibovici, Fernando; Dunn, Jason (2023-04-28)
US imports are obstructed by both tariffs and non-tariff measures, which vary significantly across industries.
Economic Synopses , Issue 9 , Pages 3 pages

Journal Article
Did Importers Try to Front-Run Recent Tariffs on China?
Cook, Thomas R.; Dzholos, Mariia (2025-01-17)
Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.
Economic Bulletin

Speech
Perspectives on the Economy and Financial Landscape
Collins, Susan M. (2025-11-12)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan M. Collins shared perspectives on the economy and monetary policy, regional banking conditions, and payments innovation during the Boston Fed’s 24th Annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference. She also participated in a Q&A discussion following her remarks.
Speech

Speech
The Totality of the Data
Williams, John C. (2025-06-24)
Remarks at NY CREATES Albany NanoTech Complex, Albany, New York.
Speech

Report
The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-Through into Consumer Prices
Amiti, Mary; Weinstein, David E.; Heise, Sebastian (2026-08-01)
Tariffs raise the prices of goods made at home, not just the imports they tax—an effect that standard pass-through estimates largely miss. Studying the 2025 U.S. tariffs, we find that about 26 percent of the tariff increase passes through to consumer prices. These estimates are measured relative to less-exposed goods and hold aggregate conditions fixed. The direct effect accounts for 64 percent of this increase, as tariffs raise the consumer prices of foreign varieties of a good. The remaining 36 percent arises indirectly—tariffs raise the cost of imported inputs used by U.S. producers, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1201

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