Search Results
Speech
Reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet: the benefits of moving gradually and predictably: remarks to the National Association of Securities Professionals, New York City
Remarks to the National Association of Securities Professionals, New York City.
Working Paper
How sensitive is the economy to large interest rate increases? Evidence from the taper tantrum
The “taper tantrum” of 2013 represents one of the largest monetary policy shocks since the 1980s. During this episode, long-term interest rates spiked 100 basis points—a move unintentionally induced by policymakers. However, this had no observable negative effect on the overall U.S. economy. Output, employment, and other important variables, all performed either in line with or better than consensus forecasts, often improving considerably relative to their earlier trends. We conclude that, from low levels, a 100 basis point increase in long-term interest rates is probably too small to ...
Speech
U.S. macroeconomic and regulatory developments and emerging market economies
Remarks at the International Financial Conference Annual Meeting, Cartagena, Colombia.
Speech
Gradual and predictable: reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet: remarks at SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, New York City
Remarks at SUERF ? The European Money and Finance Forum, New York City.
Speech
The U.S. monetary policy outlook and its global implications
Remarks at the Bloomberg Americas Monetary Summit, New York City.
Working Paper
Can Macroprudential Measures Make Cross-Border Lending More Resilient? Lessons from the Taper Tantrum
We study the effect of macroprudential measures on cross-border lending during the taper tantrum, which saw a strong slowdown of cross-border bank lending to some jurisdictions. We use a novel dataset combining the BIS Stage 1 enhanced banking statistics on bilateral cross-border lending flows with the IBRN?s macroprudential database. Our results suggest that macroprudential measures implemented in borrowers? host countries prior to the taper tantrum significantly reduced the negative effect of the tantrum on cross-border lending growth. The shock-mitigating effect of host country ...
Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?
We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. ...
Speech
Panel remarks at Bank for International Settlements' annual general meeting, Basel, Switzerland
Remarks at the Bank for International Settlements' Annual General Meeting, Basel, Switzerland.
Journal Article
Global Market Discipline during Recent Policy Tightening
Financial market discipline, in the form of movements in yields charged on sovereign debt of emerging economies, during the 2021 onset of U.S. monetary policy tightening depended heavily on domestic economic conditions. This pattern matches yield movements during the 2013 taper tantrum. The pattern suggests that, while advanced economy policies can influence emerging market financial conditions, domestic policies such as government spending levels are also important. However, the differing responses for pandemic-related spending versus the overall current account suggest that markets ...
Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and implications for monetary policy
Remarks at the People?s Bank of China-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint Symposium, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.