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Firms Expect Working from Home to Triple
Meyer, Brent; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Mihaylov, Emil (2020-05-28)
The coronavirus and efforts to mitigate its impact are having a transformative impact on many aspects of economic life, intensifying trends like shopping online rather than visiting brick-and-mortar stores and increasing the incidence of working from home. Indeed, many tech giants have already made working from home a permanent option for employees.
Macroblog

Working Paper
Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael (2022-11-22)
Based on indirect utility theory, we introduce a novel methodology of measuring inflation expectations indirectly. This methodology starts at the individual level, asking consumers about the change in income required to buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead. Analytically, our methodology possesses smaller ex-post aggregate inflation forecast errors relative to forecasts based on conventional survey questions. We ask this question in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 countries, and we show that indirect consumer inflation expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-35

Working Paper
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance
Cañas, Jesus; Kerr, Emily (2014-12-01)
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in ...
Working Papers , Paper 1416

Working Paper
Credit Supply and Hedge Fund Performance: Evidence from Prime Broker Surveys
Li, Dan; Monin, Phillip J.; Petrasek, Lubomir (2024-11-21)
Constraints on the supply of credit by prime brokers affect hedge funds' leverage and performance. Using dealer surveys and hedge fund regulatory filings, we identify individual funds' credit supply from the availability of credit under agreements currently in place between a hedge fund and its prime brokers. We find that hedge funds connected to prime brokers that make more credit available to their hedge fund clients increase their borrowing and generate higher returns and alphas. These effects are more pronounced among hedge funds that rely on a small number of prime brokers, and those ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-089

Working Paper
Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation
Mitchell, James; Shiroff, Taylor; Braitsch, Hana (2024-11-13)
This paper shows how both the characteristics and the accuracy of the point and density forecasts from a well-known panel data survey of households' inflationary expectations – the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations – depend on the tenure of survey respondents. Households' point and density forecasts of inflation become significantly more accurate with repeated practice of completing the survey. These learning gains are best identified when tenure-based combination forecasts are constructed. Tenured households on average produce lower point forecasts of inflation, perceive ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-25

Report
Who Will Pay for Tariffs? Businesses’ Expectations about Costs and Prices
Schoenle, Raphael; Leer, John; Dietrich, Alexander; Andrade, Philippe; Tang, Jenny; Zakrajšek, Egon; Lin, Xiao (2025-09-29)
Amid evolving global trade policy and rising tariff uncertainty, understanding how small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) form expectations about future costs and adjust their pricing is critical for assessing how the recently imposed tariffs on US imports could impact consumer prices. To that end, we analyze several waves of a survey of owners and other decision-makers at a nationally representative sample of US SMBs, defined as companies that employ 500 or fewer workers. We focus on waves conducted during the period of December 2024 to August 2025.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 25-13

Discussion Paper
The Region Is Struggling to Recover from the Pandemic Recession
Abel, Jaison R.; Hastings, Jonathan; Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2021-12-17)
The pandemic struck the New York-Northern New Jersey region early and hard, and the economy is still struggling to recover nearly two years later. Indeed, employment fell by 20 percent in New York City as the pandemic took hold, a significantly sharper decline than for the nation as a whole, and the rest of the region wasn’t far behind, creating a much larger hole to dig out of than other parts of the country. While the region saw significant growth as the economy began to heal, growth has slowed noticeably, and job shortfalls—that is, the amount by which employment remains below ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211217a

Report
Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on the Outlook of Small and Medium-sized Businesses
Andrade, Philippe; Dietrich, Alexander; Handley, Sophie; Leer, John; Schoenle, Raphael; Tang, Jenny; Zakrajšek, Egon (2025-09-05)
A large body of research demonstrates that uncertainty affects many dimensions of firms’ decisions, from investment and hiring to pricing and profitability. To gain a better understanding of how uncertainty induced by shifting trade policy shapes the behavior of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) the authors surveyed decision-makers at SMBs. The survey, administered by Morning Consult, was conducted in three waves: in December 2024, February 2025, and late April 2025. Each wave contained a nationally representative sample of about 600 SMBs.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 2025-12

Journal Article
Federal Reserve: Good Data is Hard to Find
Sablik, Timothy (2025-04)
Fed officials frequently describe their monetary policy decisions as data dependent. As the central bank has navigated the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, a common refrain in its policy statements is that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will "carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" when considering further adjustments."We are looking at the data to guide us in what we should do," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the press conference following the FOMC's meeting at the end of January.The demand for data in economics as a whole has only grown ...
Econ Focus , Volume 25 , Issue 1Q/2Q , Pages 4-7

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