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Working Paper
Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest
Ba, Bocar A.; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Rivera, Roman G.; Whitefield, Alexander (2024-08-05)
We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the “defund the police” movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of police-affiliated firms. In our survey experiment, laypeople and finance professionals predicted more negative stock price outcomes when they lacked details on the products supplied by such firms. Exposure to narratives about the context of the protests further reduced the prediction accuracy of these ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 096

American Firms Foresee a Huge Negative Impact of the Coronavirus
Meyer, Brent; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Mihaylov, Emil (2020-03-23)
The rapid unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic has created grave concerns for the health and welfare of the U.S. population and the economy. The economic worries are very apparent in financial markets. From the closing bell on February 21 through March 20, U.S. equities fell more than 30 percent, and stock market volatility skyrocketed.
Macroblog

Report
Gender differences in the labor market effects of the dollar
Goldberg, Linda S.; Tracy, Joseph (2001-04-01)
Although the dollar has been shown to influence the expected wages of workers, the analysis to date has focused on the male workforce. We show that exchange rate fluctuations also have important implications for women's wages. The dominant wage effects for women?like those for men?arise at times of job transition. Changes in the value of the dollar can cause the wage gap between women who change jobs and women who stay on in their jobs to expand or contract sharply, with the most pronounced effects occurring among the least educated women and women in highly competitive manufacturing ...
Staff Reports , Paper 121

A Couple of Insights from the April Current Population Survey
Robertson, John C. (2020-05-18)
The latest reading of the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker indicates that wage growth is slowing. It came in at 3.3 percent for April, down from 3.5 percent in March and 3.7 percent in February. This slowing primarily reflects the relatively large decline in the employment of those who typically experience the fastest wage growth: young workers. In February, those aged 16–24 accounted for about 12 percent of employment. By April, that share had dropped to under 10 percent. This change has significant bearing on the Wage Growth Tracker because those aged 16–24 had median wage growth of ...
Macroblog

Working Paper
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance
Jordan, Amy; Cañas, Jesus (2018-07-01)
The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) are monthly surveys of service sector and retail firms in Texas conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TSSOS and TROS track the Texas private services sector, including general service businesses, retailers and wholesalers. The surveys provide invaluable information on regional economic conditions?information that Dallas Fed economists and the Bank president use in the formulation of monetary policy. This paper describes the survey?s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of ...
Working Papers , Paper 1807

Discussion Paper
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Measuring Price Inflation Expectations
Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit; Armantier, Olivier (2013-12-04)
In this second of a series of four blog postings, we discuss the data on inflationexpectationscollected in our new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Inflation expectations are a key consideration for monetary policy as they are believed to influence consumer behavior, thereby affecting economic activity and actual inflation. The SCE data on inflation expectations represent a major innovation as they contain information not previously collected from consumers on a regular basis. In this post, we provide some background on the survey and presentsome initial findings.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131204a

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