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Journal Article
Supply Chain Disruptions, Inflation, and the Fed
Used cars became a hot commodity during the pandemic, with their prices increasing by roughly 50 percent between January 2020 and December 2021. The spike in used car prices was a prominent example of how global supply chain disruptions have contributed to U.S. inflation. It also highlighted the complexity of global supply and demand relationships.
Journal Article
Using Beige Book Text Analysis to Measure Supply Chain Disruptions
Simple, automated text analysis can extract useful metrics about supply chain disruptions from the Beige Book.
Discussion Paper
A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Factory shutdowns (particularly in Asia) and widespread lockdowns and mobility restrictions have resulted in disruptions across logistics networks, increases in shipping costs, and longer delivery times. Several measures have been used to gauge these disruptions, although those measures tend to focus on selected dimensions of global supply chains. In this post, we propose a new gauge, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), which integrates a number of commonly used ...
Speech
Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy with District Business Leaders
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard participated in a virtual discussion with business leaders and bankers from Seymour, Ind., and other areas of Jackson County, Ind. During the event, which was hosted by the St. Louis Fed’s Louisville Branch, he addressed questions on inflationary pressures in 2021, supply chain disruptions, labor force participation, a potential housing bubble, infrastructure spending, the national debt and other topics.Bullard meets regularly with groups in the four zones that make up the St. Louis Fed’s District to share insights on the U.S. economy, as well as to ...
Supply Chain Disruptions and Inventory Dynamics
Firms appear to have moved away from a just-in-time inventory model to one that prioritizes resilience, as reflected in high levels of inventory holdings of intermediate inputs.
Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions
We examine the labor market consequences of recent global supply chain disruptions induced by COVID-19. Specifically, we consider a temporary increase in international trade costs similar to the one observed during the pandemic and analyze its effects on labor market outcomes using a quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. Even omitting any health related impacts of the pandemic, the increase in trade costs leads to a temporary but prolonged decline in U.S. labor force participation. However, there is a temporary increase in manufacturing employment as the United ...
Journal Article
Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During COVID-19
Supply chain disruptions have contributed to large increases in PPI inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Discussion Paper
Deciphering the Disinflation Process
U.S. inflation surged in the early post-COVID period, driven by several economic shocks such as supply chain disruptions and labor supply constraints. Following its peak at 6.6 percent in September 2022, core consumer price index (CPI) inflation has come down rapidly over the last two years, falling to 3.6 percent recently. What explains the rapid shifts in U.S. inflation dynamics? In a recent paper, we show that the interaction between supply chain pressures and labor market tightness amplified the inflation surge in 2021. In this post, we argue that these same forces that drove the ...